{"id":70537,"date":"2022-02-17T12:30:59","date_gmt":"2022-02-17T01:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=70537"},"modified":"2022-02-17T11:46:14","modified_gmt":"2022-02-17T00:46:14","slug":"the-brahmos-missile-system-and-the-philippines-quest-for-deterrence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-brahmos-missile-system-and-the-philippines-quest-for-deterrence\/","title":{"rendered":"The BrahMos missile system and the Philippines\u2019 quest for deterrence"},"content":{"rendered":"
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At the end of last year, the Philippines released initial funding for the purchase of the Indian\u2013Russian BrahMos missile system. The contract for three batteries to be operated by the Philippine Marine Corps was signed<\/a> by Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana in January, with delivery of the first systems expected in 2023.<\/p>\n

The director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Gregory Poling, called it<\/a> the \u2018most strategic purchase the AFP [Armed Forces of the Philippines] has made in years\u2019<\/u>.<\/p>\n

The Philippines has long desired to procure land-based missiles as part of its military modernisation program. While previous efforts failed due to \u2018changed priorities<\/a>\u2019, the need for these weapons was catalysed by increasing Chinese aggressive actions in the West Philippine Sea; the most recent was the harassment of Philippine resupply efforts to Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal in November<\/a>.<\/p>\n

BrahMos is an impressive weapon, known as one of the world\u2019s fastest (supersonic, not hypersonic) cruise missiles. Its deployment could allow the Philippines to enact its own version of an anti-access\/area denial<\/a> strategy.<\/p>\n

However, it would be premature to say that BrahMos by itself is a gamechanger. Due to restrictions under the Missile Technology Control Regime (to which India is a signatory), BrahMos missiles supplied to the Philippines will be limited to a range of 290 kilometres (156 nautical miles)<\/a>. While such range is a first for the Philippines, it isn\u2019t enough to cover the full 370 kilometres (200 nautical miles) of the Philippines\u2019 exclusive economic zone. Being stuck on land-based launchers in an archipelago also limits the system\u2019s strategic mobility.<\/p>\n

Even at its export-limited range, BrahMos must be supported by an effective intelligence, surveillance, target-acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) system to find and track targets, and a resilient command and control (C2) complex to ensure that command can use it. The AFP\u2019s C2ISTAR system is hobbled<\/a> by a still-developing C2 complex and limited numbers of vulnerable crewed observation aircraft and drones. Even if it were fully operational, a C2ISTAR complex could be disrupted<\/a>; in the event of war, an adversary would do its utmost to disrupt and destroy the Philippines\u2019 C2ISTAR capabilities. Maintaining BrahMos\u2019s deterrent capability will require not only building this complex but ensuring that it can withstand any attempts to degrade it in battle.<\/p>\n

Neither does possessing a robust C2ISTAR complex combined with BrahMos suffice for establishing reliable deterrence. Effectively deterring an adversary requires material capability to inflict \u2018unacceptable damage\u2019 and the political will to fight. The former leads to questions of risk calculus and damage tolerance; the latter requires willpower and understanding the consequences of the use of weapons.<\/p>\n

Although such analyses are usually done in the context of nuclear deterrence, these concerns are also relevant for conventional deterrence. In the Philippines\u2019 case, conventional deterrence may well depend on the ability of the AFP to dissuade a possible fait accompli, specifically by the People\u2019s Liberation Army, over some or all the Philippine-held features in the Kalayaan Island Group (Spratly Islands).<\/p>\n

While China has yet to directly comment on the Philippines\u2019 plans, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a forum on Philippines\u2013China relations held shortly after the announcement, promised<\/a> that China \u2018will not use its strength to bully smaller countries\u2019. China also pushed through with a donation of assorted non-offensive materiel worth US$19.5 million<\/a> to the AFP.<\/p>\n

Perhaps China feels that it need not consider Philippine BrahMos in its equations. As the largest plans of the AFP modernisation program call for five batteries<\/a>, saying that that\u2019s not enough is an understatement when considering the scale of the potential opposition.<\/p>\n

Still, an AFP with BrahMos is better than an AFP without it, because it increases its chances of defending the country from external aggressors. This and other efforts to strengthen Philippine defence\u2014including maintaining alliances and partnerships with like-minded countries\u2014should, to paraphrase Poling, keep coercion at the grey-zone level instead of open warfare.<\/p>\n

The Philippine defence establishment needs to do more beyond just purchase new weapons. The AFP needs to integrate BrahMos and other new capabilities into its operations, through wargaming and enhanced training.<\/p>\n

The Philippines must continue to develop and enhance its ideas and strategy for achieving its deterrence objectives. Tools like the US net assessment method<\/a>, if appropriately adapted and updated to suit the Philippines\u2019 particular needs, contexts and situation, may be useful. It is imperative as well to study Chinese strategic culture and assess the damage tolerance threshold<\/a> of the Chinese Communist Party.<\/p>\n

The road ahead for the Philippines is challenging given its own complicated and inward-looking strategic culture<\/a>. But for the country to make the most of its new purchases and safeguard its sovereignty, the Philippines must evolve its deterrence and strategic thinking now, while there\u2019s still time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At the end of last year, the Philippines released initial funding for the purchase of the Indian\u2013Russian BrahMos missile system. 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