{"id":70676,"date":"2022-02-24T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-24T01:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=70676"},"modified":"2022-02-24T12:10:36","modified_gmt":"2022-02-24T01:10:36","slug":"irans-hard-bargaining-looks-set-to-deliver-a-dangerous-deal-for-international-security","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/irans-hard-bargaining-looks-set-to-deliver-a-dangerous-deal-for-international-security\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s hard bargaining looks set to deliver a dangerous deal for international security"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The eighth round of negotiations<\/a> to resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA<\/a>), which resumed in Vienna in mid-February, is looking likely to be the decisive one. It seems all that\u2019s left is approval from Washington and Tehran for an agreement to be reached.<\/p>\n

From the beginning, the talks were a clash between completely opposite negotiation styles.<\/p>\n

On the US side, President Joe Biden promised<\/a> to restart diplomacy to \u2018strengthen and extend\u2019 the JCPOA. Later, it turned out that American officials were aiming<\/a> for a limited \u2018less for less\u2019 agreement. Now the US\u2019s goals appear to have been downgraded to reaching any deal, at almost any cost, so the administration can close the Iran file and focus on the immense challenges from China and Russia.<\/p>\n

On the other side of the table, Tehran has presented tough and uncompromising positions from day one. The Iranians\u2019 negotiating tactics could be described as those of \u2018hard bargainers<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

In their book Beyond winning: negotiating to create value in deals and disputes<\/em><\/a>, legal experts Robert Mnookin, Scott Peppet and Andrew Tulumello describe the negotiation techniques<\/a> used by \u2018hard bargainers\u2019.<\/p>\n

Typical of such hard bargainers, Iran introduced extreme demands and offered minimal concessions in return. Tehran insisted on immediate removal of most, if not all, sanctions to enable<\/a> free and unobstructed Iranian oil exports and the swift flow of revenues into the regime\u2019s coffers. Other Iranian preconditions for a deal were a US guarantee not to impose new sanctions or to reimpose previously lifted sanctions and a promise<\/a> that no future US administration would ever withdraw from a new agreement\u2014both impossible demands for political and legal reasons in the US.<\/p>\n

Tehran also chose a slow pace of talks\u2014constantly pausing negotiations and inviting the other parties to lure it back to the negotiating\u00a0table\u2014in an effort to gradually wear down the Americans\u00a0and Europeans into bending to Iran\u2019s maximalist demands.<\/p>\n

Aware of Biden\u2019s eagerness to quickly reach a deal, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi taunted Washington by pessimistically stating on 11 February that Iran didn\u2019t \u2018pin any hopes on Vienna and New York\u2019.<\/p>\n

All the while, the Iranians kept rejecting<\/a> requests from US officials who were virtually begging<\/a> them to hold direct talks to seal a deal. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 2018 forbade<\/a> direct negotiations with the US following President Donald Trump\u2019s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA, and since then the Iranians have been speaking only to European negotiators.<\/p>\n

Tehran\u2019s persistently rigid stance reaped success. The Americans were first to cave in, allowing<\/a> South Korea to use sanctions-frozen Iranian funds to pay Tehran\u2019s debt to the UN. Meanwhile, dialogue between Tehran and Seoul resumed<\/a> on restarting<\/a> oil sales from Iran and releasing US$7 billion of Iranian funds held frozen in Korea. Then Washington lifted<\/a> secondary sanctions on parts of Iran\u2019s nuclear program, allowing non-American companies to redesign nuclear facilities such as the Arak heavy-water reactor and the Fordow enrichment plant, remove nuclear materials such heavy water from Iran, and service the Bushehr nuclear power plant.<\/p>\n

Now, judging by leaks<\/a> from Vienna, a deal is imminent, with the Iranians having achieved most of their stated goals. According to the agreement\u2019s draft<\/a>, the US will begin gradually removing sanctions within a few days of signing the deal, while Iran will offer mostly reversible token steps in return. A mechanism is being discussed to shield Iran\u2019s economy and nuclear program from possible future reinstatement of sanctions.<\/p>\n

Prior to an agreement, a prisoner-swap deal is expected in which Iran would be rewarded with hefty undisclosed sums for its cruel tactic of jailing Westerners<\/a> on trumped-up charges to be used as hostages.<\/p>\n

Tehran reportedly wants an agreement by the Iranian New Year on 20 March.\u00a0This may sound symbolic, but in fact the timing may be intended to prevent a strong condemnation of Iran when the International Atomic Energy Agency\u2019s board of governors convenes within a few weeks. The IAEA is expected to again publish damning reports about Tehran\u2019s ongoing cat-and-mouse games<\/a> with UN inspectors.<\/p>\n

Reports suggest<\/a> that, at least initially, Iran would limit uranium enrichment to 5% (above the JCPOA 3.67% cap), but would resume 60% enrichment\u2014very close to military grade\u2014if it judges that the US is not meeting its expectations regarding the deal.<\/p>\n

One thing is certain: much of the progress in Iran\u2019s nuclear program over the past two years\u2014for example, in enriching uranium to military-grade levels and producing uranium metal\u2014is irreversible<\/a> and a return to the JCPOA framework is impossible<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s drive towards nuclear-threshold status<\/a> is not merely a bargaining chip for the Vienna talks; it is the prime target of the regime. Tehran\u2019s actions amount to a slow \u2018breakout\u2019 towards the bomb<\/a>, in an effort to secure the regime\u2019s survival.<\/p>\n

A new deal, if reached, would likely leave<\/a> Iran in a position to amass enough highly enriched fissile material for at least one nuclear bomb within weeks.<\/p>\n

A new agreement is also not expected to tackle Iran\u2019s ballistic-missile capabilities or its development of a warhead to carry a nuclear payload over long distance. Nor will it likely address Tehran\u2019s lack of cooperation with the IAEA\u2019s many years\u2019 long investigation into its illegal atomic weapons activities.<\/p>\n

Worse, the sanctions would release huge funds to the regime that could be spent on terror operations, subversion across the region and oppression of the Iranian people. It would provide crucially needed oxygen to the failing tyranny in Tehran, ensuring its likely survival for years to come.<\/p>\n

Taking all this into account, a \u2018no agreement\u2019 option\u2014featuring continuing pressure on, and containment and isolation of, Iran\u2014looks far less damaging than a modified, weaker nuclear deal that would allow Iran to enjoy a huge financial windfall while scoring legitimacy to continue racing towards a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The eighth round of negotiations to resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA), which resumed in Vienna in mid-February, is looking likely to be the decisive one. It …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1120,"featured_media":60618,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,1883,1361,356,2070],"class_list":["post-70676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-nuclear-deal","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIran\u2019s hard bargaining looks set to deliver a dangerous deal for international security | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/irans-hard-bargaining-looks-set-to-deliver-a-dangerous-deal-for-international-security\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran\u2019s hard bargaining looks set to deliver a dangerous deal for international security | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The eighth round of negotiations to resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA), which resumed in Vienna in mid-February, is looking likely to be the decisive one. 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