{"id":71219,"date":"2022-03-16T06:00:56","date_gmt":"2022-03-15T19:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71219"},"modified":"2022-03-15T16:28:19","modified_gmt":"2022-03-15T05:28:19","slug":"will-bidens-indo-pacific-strategy-survive-the-war-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-bidens-indo-pacific-strategy-survive-the-war-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Biden\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy survive the war in Ukraine?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As the United States slides deeper into a proxy war with Russia, Indo-Pacific countries are increasingly concerned about the long-term implications of the Ukraine crisis for America\u2019s power and position in this part of the world.<\/p>\n

And so they should be. While President Joe Biden\u2019s initial approach to Ukraine struck the right balance of resolve and restraint\u2014marshalling global allies in support of sanctions against Russia and funnelling military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine\u2014the war is now sapping more and more American attention and defence resources.<\/p>\n

A dangerous tit for tat is taking hold. Washington\u2019s lethal military aid and economy-breaking sanctions signal an investment in the war that could slip beyond Biden\u2019s original articulation of limited interests. Russia\u2019s nuclear threats and increasingly brutal operations have triggered further US involvement, including the deployment of advanced F-35 fighters<\/a> and expensive Patriot missile-defence systems<\/a> to NATO frontlines in Eastern Europe, and a massive US$13.6 billion Ukraine emergency bill<\/a> passed by Congress last week. Calls are getting louder for a \u2018limited no-fly zone<\/a>\u2019 which, though rebuffed so far, may become politically harder to resist.<\/p>\n

All this is understandable given the humanitarian carnage. But hot on the heels of the release of Biden\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy<\/a>, it\u2019s unsettling to watch Washington\u2019s strategic gaze drift, once again, away from a robust \u2018pivot to Asia\u2019.<\/p>\n

As we argue in a new United States Studies Centre report<\/a>, these developments are especially worrying given that the Biden administration has so far failed to deliver on key defence components of its regional strategy.<\/p>\n

Senior US officials insist that events in Europe will not see the Indo-Pacific or efforts to balance Chinese power deprioritised. Earlier this month, the White House\u2019s Indo-Pacific coordinator, Kurt Campbell, again promised<\/a> that Washington was capable of sustaining \u2018deep commitments\u2019 in both theatres simultaneously, even at great cost, just as it had in the past.<\/p>\n

But while America can\u2014and must\u2014continue to buttress European security, it doesn\u2019t enjoy the luxury of riches or unchallenged military primacy required to underwrite an expansive global strategy against two great-power rivals.<\/p>\n

Matching ends with means in the Indo-Pacific\u2014America\u2019s so-called \u2018priority theatre<\/a>\u2019\u2014requires difficult trade-offs between competing priorities, including in Ukraine. A more sustainable division of US and allied defence responsibilities in Europe and Asia is urgently required.<\/p>\n

Biden understands this and deserves credit for attempting to match US global interests and commitments in his first year. Poor execution aside, his Afghan withdrawal showed a willingness to make tough, politically unpopular trade-offs. His initially restrained approach to the Ukraine crisis suggested he would keep it in global strategic perspective<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But Washington won\u2019t be able to sideline Moscow from its foreign policy agenda the way it had hoped. Delays<\/a> to the publication of the US national defence strategy and national security strategy suggest that Russia is forcing a hurried reassessment of Biden\u2019s global priorities. In a worst-case scenario for the Indo-Pacific, it\u2019s possible these documents will return US military strategy to an equally weighted focus on Asia and Europe\u2014contradicting hard-fought efforts in recent years to make China the Pentagon\u2019s outright priority<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This is not a callous point to make. America simply doesn\u2019t have the military resources required to prosecute an effective multi-theatre strategy in an era of great-power rivalry. Nor is it spending enough to change this equation: while the 2018 national defence strategy recommended<\/a> 3% to 5% real growth in defence spending annually to keep pace with China and Russia, not a single defence budget<\/a> since has met these targets.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s budget continues this unsatisfactory trend. And in contrast to the stark warnings<\/a> from top brass at US Indo-Pacific Command, who see conflict with China as a possibility this decade, the administration\u2019s defence budget prioritises long-term military modernisation in anticipation of high-end conflict in the 2030s\u2014leaving the US underprepared to deal with Chinese military coercion over the next few years.<\/p>\n

Budget shortfalls are mirrored by slow-moving efforts to realign US forces globally. While Canberra and Washington have agreed to new posture arrangements for US forces to undertake expanded training, sustainment and military operations from Australian soil, the administration\u2019s global posture review offered little else<\/a> for the region. By contrast, it put on hold further Middle East drawdowns and made no significant cuts to troop numbers in Europe, which have since risen as a result of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Even the Pentagon\u2019s new Pacific deterrence initiative<\/a> falls short of the mark in the quantum of investment in forward military posture, logistics, air defences, and fuel and munitions stockpiles.<\/p>\n

There is nevertheless a silver lining for allies like Australia: the Biden administration appears highly responsive to our ideas when it comes to regional defence initiatives.<\/p>\n

The unprecedented AUKUS defence industrial partnership<\/a> is the clearest win<\/a> for Australia on this front, offering rare access to nuclear-powered submarine technology and deeper industrial and technology integration\u2014a result of sustained Australian lobbying in Washington.<\/p>\n

Other allies have benefited too. Japan secured more extensive collaboration<\/a> with the US on cutting-edge defence technologies and South Korea is reaping the rewards of decades-long efforts to lift US restrictions<\/a> on its ballistic missile technology.<\/p>\n

These efforts to empower US allies<\/a> are even more important as Washington is once again pulled in conflicting global directions. Indo-Pacific allies should advocate for more. As a priority, Australia should caucus with Japan and other close security partners to push for overdue reforms<\/a> to US export controls on defence technology. Realising the full promise of AUKUS, establishing a sovereign guided weapons and explosive ordnance enterprise to build high-end missiles in this country, and achieving Australia\u2019s full integration into the US national technology and industrial base all depend on such revisions.<\/p>\n

Indo-Pacific allies should also press Washington for greater insight and input into its regional military planning. A credible collective defence strategy<\/a> requires clarity on when, where and how to address shared defence challenges. Biden\u2019s effort to build support among regional allies for a Taiwan<\/a> contingency<\/a> is a step in this direction. But while Taiwan is the Pentagon\u2019s \u2018pacing challenge<\/a>\u2019, regional countries face Chinese military coercion across a far wider range of lower intensity scenarios, as China\u2019s intimidation<\/a> of an Australian military aircraft in the Arafura Sea last month attests. New strategic planning initiatives must reflect these realities.<\/p>\n

In the end, however, these initiatives can\u2019t change the strategic physics of the Indo-Pacific. A favourable balance of power with China can only be upheld with unprecedented US support. Alliance modernisation is a necessary component<\/a> of this strategy, but it\u2019s not a substitute for a robust US military posture and presence in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

As the conflict in Ukraine grinds on, America\u2019s capacity to deliver an effective defence strategy for the region will depend on its ability to keep its escalating involvement in check and in global strategic perspective.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the United States slides deeper into a proxy war with Russia, Indo-Pacific countries are increasingly concerned about the long-term implications of the Ukraine crisis for America\u2019s power and position in this part of the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1005,"featured_media":71222,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,51,26,56,2397,2070],"class_list":["post-71219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-defence-cooperation","tag-defence-spending","tag-indo-pacific","tag-us-alliances","tag-us-foreign-policy","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWill Biden\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy survive the war in Ukraine? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-bidens-indo-pacific-strategy-survive-the-war-in-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will Biden\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy survive the war in Ukraine? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the United States slides deeper into a proxy war with Russia, Indo-Pacific countries are increasingly concerned about the long-term implications of the Ukraine crisis for America\u2019s power and position in this part of the ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-bidens-indo-pacific-strategy-survive-the-war-in-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-03-15T19:00:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-03-15T05:28:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-1238692901.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ashley Townshend\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ashley Townshend\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-bidens-indo-pacific-strategy-survive-the-war-in-ukraine\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-1238692901.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-1238692901.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 22: U.S. President Joe Biden participates in a virtual meeting about mineral supply chains and clean energy manufacturing in the South Court Auditorium of the White House complex February 22, 2022 in Washington, DC. 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