{"id":71305,"date":"2022-03-18T14:30:56","date_gmt":"2022-03-18T03:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71305"},"modified":"2022-03-18T13:17:00","modified_gmt":"2022-03-18T02:17:00","slug":"beijings-goals-and-putins-war-are-meshing-in-nasty-ways","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/beijings-goals-and-putins-war-are-meshing-in-nasty-ways\/","title":{"rendered":"Beijing\u2019s goals and Putin\u2019s war are meshing in nasty ways"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"719\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-71310\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-164317197.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-164317197.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-164317197-205x144.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-164317197-768x539.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>Beijing\u2019s goals, set out in numerous speeches by Xi Jinping and in decisions and actions, are clear now. Number one remains Xi and the Chinese Communist Party staying in power indefinitely as rulers of China\u2019s 1.4 billion people\u2014Xi\u2019s real \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-china-20338586\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">China dream<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Xi and his acolytes want three big things:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">an external environment that continues to enable China to grow its economic, technological and strategic power<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">tighter control over China\u2019s domestic economy and all Chinese individuals and entities, as Jack Ma and many other formerly powerful corporate figures now understand<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">deeper integration of other economies into China\u2019s market, where China dictates the terms as a means of influencing and controlling actors in its external environment.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These priorities interact with the deep partnership that has developed between Moscow and Beijing, starting with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fmprc.gov.cn\/mfa_eng\/wjdt_665385\/2649_665393\/200107\/t20010724_679026.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation<\/a>, accelerating under the growing relationship between Xi and Vladimir Putin since 2013 and culminating in their joint statement less than three weeks before Putin launched his long-foreshadowed invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.<\/p>\n<p>Looked at with these priorities and this context in mind, Putin\u2019s war in Ukraine, like Covid-19 and increased strategic competition with the US and other major powers, has negative and positive consequences for the rulers in Beijing.<\/p>\n<p>On the negative side, Putin\u2019s war exposes the contradictions in Chinese policy and action. Beijing\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2012\/09\/421682\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">long espousal<\/a> of the principles of non-interference in other states and respect for their sovereignty looks meaningless when placed against Xi\u2019s and the broader Chinese government\u2019s clear diplomatic protection for Putin as he engages in an aggressive war that directly breaches them.<\/p>\n<p>Xi\u2019s vague and conflicting language, repeated by China\u2019s foreign ministry and various state media mouthpieces, attempts to blur and blunt the jarring contradiction at the heart of Beijing\u2019s position on the war. But his words are entirely unconvincing, as many of the Chinese state voices engaged in this effort may well realise.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the foreign ministry\u2019s readout of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fmprc.gov.cn\/mfa_eng\/zxxx_662805\/202203\/t20220308_10649839.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Xi talking<\/a> to Germany\u2019s Olaf Scholz and France\u2019s Emmanuel Macron:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>President Xi stressed that the current situation in Ukraine is worrisome, and the Chinese side is deeply grieved by the outbreak of war again on the European continent. China maintains that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be respected, the purposes and principles of the UN Charter must be fully observed, the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously \u2026<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So, the \u2018current situation\u2019 is \u2018worrisome\u2019, as if the war were some naturally occurring phenomenon troubling Europe rather than the result of human decision-making\u2014in this case by someone Xi knows well: Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n<p>While wrapping himself in a lofty reference to the UN charter, Xi ensures he supports Putin\u2019s stated reason for starting this war and killing so many Ukrainian civilians and Russian and Ukrainian soldiers. Xi tells Macron and Scholz that \u2018the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously\u2019. He knows this phrasing is an echo of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/russia-challenge-nato-security-pledge-lavrov-2022-01-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Russia\u2019s language<\/a> on the conflict, as we\u2019ve heard from figures like Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Deputy Foreign Minister <a href=\"https:\/\/tass.com\/world\/1415133\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Grushko<\/a>. He also knows there\u2019s nothing legitimate about Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, a state China has <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20170520130658\/http:\/www.fmprc.gov.cn:80\/web\/gjhdq_676201\/gj_676203\/oz_678770\/1206_679786\/sbgx_679790\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recognised since 1992<\/a> and a UN member since 1991.<\/p>\n<p>Putin\u2019s war is also forcing Chinese companies and financial institutions to adopt the West\u2019s broad, deep sanctions against Russian entities because, if they fail to comply, they <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2022-03-09\/the-web-of-russia-sanctions-can-snarl-china-too\">risk losing<\/a> much larger international markets than Russia.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s tension, no doubt, between these corporate decisions and the government\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3168972\/china-opposes-illegal-sanctions-against-russia-united-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">opposition<\/a> to the sanctions\u2014characterising those adopted by the EU, the G7, every NATO member and numerous other countries from Switzerland to Australia as \u2018unilateral\u2019, despite the word\u2019s mathematically implausibility in these circumstances.<\/p>\n<p>But that tension may not be terribly pronounced or long-lasting: Xi\u2019s reassertion of CCP control over state-owned enterprises and all Chinese companies means they\u2019ll subordinate their commercial interests to state interests and policy directions.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing clearly wants to find ways to continue to trade with and support Russia economically and financially while Putin wages war. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/china-is-not-party-russia-war-on-ukraine-foreign-minister\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">asserted<\/a> that because China is \u2018not a party to the conflict\u2019, it shouldn\u2019t have to adopt sanctions or comply with them. Chinese officials have gone further, saying China <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3168835\/ukraine-russia-crisis-tests-beijings-desire-maintain-normal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hopes to maintain normal trade<\/a> with Russia while Putin is in the midst of his war.<\/p>\n<p>This means we should expect the Chinese government\u2019s policy for itself and for China\u2019s corporate and financial actors to be to do the minimum required to be narrowly technically compliant with international sanctions while creatively engineering ways to provide Russia with economic and financial support.<\/p>\n<p>While Chinese companies and institutions with international markets well beyond Russia are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/live-news\/20220226-chinese-banks-limit-financing-for-russian-purchases-bloomberg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">complying<\/a> for now, the sanctions are giving Beijing\u2019s policymakers an opportunity to learn how broad, deep sanctions might be developed as a policy tool for their government. This will inform Beijing\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reedsmith.com\/en\/perspectives\/2021\/06\/china-passes-anti-foreign-sanctions-law\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">work<\/a> on its own sanctions machinery to use against others.<\/p>\n<p>Like its position on state sovereignty and non-interference, we should expect the purity of Beijing\u2019s position against \u2018unilateral\u2019 sanctions to not trouble Chinese officials at all when it comes to employing their own sanctions as weapons to complement their informal, truly unilateral <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/report\/chinese-communist-partys-coercive-diplomacy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">economic coercion<\/a> methods.<\/p>\n<p>And the unified sanctions against Russia are a forceful catalyst to accelerate implementation of Beijing\u2019s own economic and technological strategy of <a href=\"https:\/\/chinapower.csis.org\/china-covid-dual-circulation-economic-strategy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dual circulation<\/a>, aimed at reducing China\u2019s dependence on US- and EU-led financial markets, supply chains and technology, with a particular focus on digital technologies. This was already a core matter for Xi and his CCP politburo colleagues because of the growing strategic and technological competition between China, the US and, increasingly, the EU.<\/p>\n<p>But the shock of seeing previously divided countries and powers across Europe and the Indo-Pacific act with such speed and unity of purpose against Russia will inject urgency into Chinese action. So, we\u2019ll see an acceleration of the technological \u2018decoupling\u2019 of China from the larger democratic world, and a broadening of that decoupling beyond the technology sector, with energy and even renewables being likely new areas.<\/p>\n<p>That decoupling will become turbo-charged should Beijing provide not only economic, financial and diplomatic support to Putin but also material military assistance to his war.<\/p>\n<p>US intelligence has revealed that Moscow has already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/03\/13\/us\/politics\/russia-china-ukraine.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">asked Beijing<\/a> for such assistance\u2014apparently including supplies like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-03-15\/u-s-warns-europe-that-russia-wants-armed-drones-from-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">armed drones<\/a>. And the information was sufficiently reliable for US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to raise the issue directly with CCP politburo member Yang Jiechi in an inconclusive <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/598140-sullivan-raises-russia-concerns-in-meeting-with-chinese-official?rl=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">seven-hour<\/a> meeting in Rome.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing\u2014and Xi himself\u2014are likely to have absolutely no intention of shifting from their partnership with and support for Putin, but they will work covertly and in ways that allow them to claim they\u2019re not in technical breach of sanctions but are \u2018seeking peace\u2019. Beijing will continue to bet that the attraction of its large market and the passage of time will reduce other governments\u2019 unity on Russia, and make it easier for Beijing to walk its preferred path.<\/p>\n<p>But Beijing\u2019s decision-making and calculations have proven far less supple and successful, and more strident and inwardly focused, as the Xi era wears on, so it\u2019s unlikely to be able to strike this balance in the sea of contradictions it finds itself in. To paraphrase that seasoned politician of the 1970s and 1980s, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.qhatlas.com.au\/content\/johannes-bjelke-petersen-straddling-barbed-wire-fence\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Joh Bjelke-Petersen<\/a>, \u2018You can\u2019t sit on the fence and keep your ear to the ground without terrible things happening.\u2019 The prospects of Beijing being exposed for deep, active support to Putin are growing.<\/p>\n<p>The consequences will be a further shattering of what\u2019s left of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/economic-blacklist-of-russia-marks-new-blow-for-globalization-11646940040?st=mvddzybf8oq5wzw&amp;reflink=article_email_share\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u2018global economy\u2019<\/a> and the beginning of a world challenged by the manifest strategic partnership between the twin autocracies of Russia and China. This challenge, unexpectedly, is likely to be met with much greater unity and will than we had any right to expect before 24 February.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Beijing\u2019s goals, set out in numerous speeches by Xi Jinping and in decisions and actions, are clear now. Number one remains Xi and the Chinese Communist Party staying in power indefinitely as rulers of China\u2019s &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":766,"featured_media":71310,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1383,52,163,379,365,744,204],"class_list":["post-71305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-ccp","tag-china","tag-russia","tag-sanctions","tag-trade","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-xi-jinping","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Beijing\u2019s goals and Putin\u2019s war are meshing in nasty ways | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/beijings-goals-and-putins-war-are-meshing-in-nasty-ways\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beijing\u2019s goals and Putin\u2019s war are meshing in nasty ways | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Beijing\u2019s goals, set out in numerous speeches by Xi Jinping and in decisions and actions, are clear now. 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Number one remains Xi and the Chinese Communist Party staying in power indefinitely as rulers of China\u2019s ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/beijings-goals-and-putins-war-are-meshing-in-nasty-ways\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2022-03-18T03:30:56+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-03-18T02:17:00+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":719,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-164317197.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Michael Shoebridge","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Michael Shoebridge","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI&#039;s analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/beijings-goals-and-putins-war-are-meshing-in-nasty-ways\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-164317197.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-164317197.jpg","width":1024,"height":719,"caption":"TOPSHOT - China's President Xi Jinping (L) is welcomed by his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin (R) during the opening ceremony of \"The Year of Chinese Tourism in Russia\" in Moscow, on March 22, 2013. China's new president Xi Jinping arrived today in Moscow on his first foreign visit since assuming the presidency earlier this month. Xi Jinping and his counterpart Vladimir Putin are set to oversee the signing of a number of energy and investment agreements including a deal that will see Russia ramp up oil supplies to China. 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