{"id":71334,"date":"2022-03-21T14:30:35","date_gmt":"2022-03-21T03:30:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71334"},"modified":"2022-03-21T14:00:37","modified_gmt":"2022-03-21T03:00:37","slug":"will-putins-war-force-more-medium-sized-states-to-seek-nuclear-weapons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-putins-war-force-more-medium-sized-states-to-seek-nuclear-weapons\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Putin\u2019s war force more medium-sized states to seek nuclear weapons?"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"531\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-71338\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4050346419_f3765ffe34_c.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4050346419_f3765ffe34_c.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4050346419_f3765ffe34_c-205x136.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4050346419_f3765ffe34_c-768x510.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4050346419_f3765ffe34_c-332x221.jpg 332w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has generated significant debate about deterrence, focused principally on Ukraine\u2019s non-membership of NATO and the extent to which its membership aspirations represent a legitimate security concern to Russia.<\/p>\n<p>But another salient detail has not escaped attention. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to destroy the nuclear stockpile\u2014the world\u2019s third largest\u2014it inherited from the dissolution of the Soviet Union, in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. The aim here is not to relitigate that decision; the point is that, deprived of the two gold standards of deterrence (its own nuclear weapons or a NATO membership card), Ukraine was invaded. That won\u2019t be lost on the handful of other medium-sized states trying to balance strategic interests in the shadow of menacing neighbours. In light of Putin\u2019s invasion, will more states seek the ultimate deterrent?<\/p>\n<p>To begin, let us define our terms. I have in mind states that satisfy the following criteria:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They don\u2019t already possess nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They are constrained by a large state that they perceive as a threat or might come to perceive as a threat.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They are large enough that their acquisition of nuclear weapons is plausible.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Their constitution doesn\u2019t explicitly forbid the acquisition of nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They seek an independent foreign policy or are showing signs of seeking such a policy.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They have no obviously superior means of outsourcing nuclear deterrence (that is, NATO membership).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Run the algorithm and it generates the following: Iran, Taiwan, Finland and Vietnam. Include states that satisfy some but not all of the criteria and the group extends to states such as Indonesia, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Bangladesh and the two largest Central Asian states\u2014Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.<\/p>\n<p>The four members of the first group all warrant closer analysis.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s begin with Iran. As I have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gutek.com.au\/how-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-will-change-the-world\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">written elsewhere<\/a>, Iran and the US are edging closer to reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action which was effectively torn up by Donald Trump. But who\u2019s to say that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi won\u2019t be reconsidering those moves in light of the invasion of Ukraine? The war in Ukraine is likely to further destabilise the Middle East in two ways: by putting economic pressure on Arab leaders who are dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat to feed their people, and by expanding the economic power of Iran\u2019s Gulf rivals as the West seeks to wean itself from Russian fossil fuels.<\/p>\n<p>Both of these factors, together with the harsh lesson being dished out to Russia that participation in the global financial system creates significant interdependency risks, may convince Iran\u2019s rulers that the leverage and deterrence that the bomb brings are worth whatever costs further sanctions might bring.<\/p>\n<p>In a class of special cases, Taiwan is a particularly special one. There\u2019s no evidence that it possesses or seeks to possess nuclear weapons. There has been virtually no talk of Taiwan developing domestic nuclear capabilities since the Taiwan Strait crisis of the mid-1990s. But, as its prowess in chip manufacturing demonstrates, Taiwan is highly technologically sophisticated. There\u2019s little doubt that it could produce nuclear weapons if it wished. And, as China continues to stir up nationalist zeal and bolster its military capabilities while the US turns its gaze inward, Taiwan\u2019s leaders may conclude that the deterrent value of strategic ambiguity has declined to the point where it should pursue its own path towards nuclearisation.<\/p>\n<p>As for Finland, the defensive wars it fought against the Soviet Union have calcified into a wariness of Russian intentions. It is not a member of NATO or the EU, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icanw.org\/finland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nor is it a party to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons<\/a>. True, Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine <a href=\"https:\/\/yle.fi\/news\/3-12357832\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has pushed public support<\/a> for NATO membership to record highs. But that support may subside. Finns cherish their independence. They may yet conclude that acquiring nuclear weapons is the sole means of preserving it.<\/p>\n<p>Vietnam is a slightly speculative inclusion. Indeed, it is today party to most relevant non-proliferation treaties and agreements, including the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/nwfz\/fr\/content\/treaty-bangkok\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Treaty of Bangkok<\/a>. But it is also poised to be the first Southeast Asian state to generate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nti.org\/analysis\/articles\/vietnam-overview\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">its own nuclear energy<\/a>\u2014thanks in part to Russian assistance. It fought wars against China and the US within living memory, shares a 1,300-kilometre border with the former, and <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2022\/03\/how-did-asian-countries-vote-on-the-uns-ukraine-resolution\/\">abstained<\/a> from the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia\u2019s invasion. Hanoi may decide that, despite its treaty commitments, the only way to truly guarantee its security is with its own nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n<p>What about Australia? As recently as the late 1960s, Prime Minister John Gorton <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/national\/when-australia-had-a-bombshell-for-us-20080705-32ai.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wanted Australia to develop its own nuclear weapons<\/a>. Despite Australia signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1970 and being under the implied protection of the US nuclear umbrella, today there\u2019s occasional debate about Australia acquiring its own weapons (strong recent pieces include one in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/policy\/foreign-affairs\/australia-needs-a-bomb-in-the-basement-20210329-p57eya\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the <em>Australian Financial Review<\/em><\/a> and another in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/should-australia-build-its-own-nuclear-arsenal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>The Strategist<\/em><\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Certainly, China\u2019s aggression is driving strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific to new levels. But I\u2019m not convinced that Canberra\u2019s calculations have been altered substantially by Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. First, it\u2019s clear that the acquisition of nuclear submarines as part of the AUKUS agreement is partly intended to enhance Australia\u2019s powers of deterrence. Second, Australia\u2019s leaders are likely to conclude that there\u2019s too much uncertainty about how Putin\u2019s invasion will influence China\u2019s actions in the region. While it\u2019s true that the government has sought to make national security an election issue, there is no serious talk of developing our own nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n<p>The countries mentioned here are likely to seek their security by other, non-nuclear means. But accumulate enough tiny probabilities and you will be confronted by an event with a low to medium probability of occurring. Leaders around the world may well have drawn the lesson that the seeds of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine were sown the day Kyiv willingly ceded its nuclear weapons. After all, only the most ardent hawk today seriously contemplates an invasion of North Korea.<\/p>\n<p>Even a 5% probability that a new member will join the nuclear club\u2014or even signal a desire to do so\u2014should alter strategic calculations in Washington, Beijing, Moscow, Brussels and Canberra. When the stakes are so high, even a small possibility of a more multipolar nuclear order is worth taking seriously.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has generated significant debate about deterrence, focused principally on Ukraine\u2019s non-membership of NATO and the extent to which its membership aspirations represent a legitimate security concern to Russia. &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1521,"featured_media":71338,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[116,356,163,714,744],"class_list":["post-71334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-nuclear-deterrence","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will Putin\u2019s war force more medium-sized states to seek nuclear weapons? 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