{"id":71368,"date":"2022-03-22T15:15:39","date_gmt":"2022-03-22T04:15:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71368"},"modified":"2022-03-22T16:01:28","modified_gmt":"2022-03-22T05:01:28","slug":"ukraine-war-may-drive-more-indo-pacific-nations-towards-nuclear-weapons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraine-war-may-drive-more-indo-pacific-nations-towards-nuclear-weapons\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine war may drive more Indo-Pacific nations towards nuclear weapons"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The nations of the Indo-Pacific are watching Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine closely and it\u2019s likely to drive some to seek access to nuclear weapons, says Singapore\u2019s former foreign minister Bilahari Kausikan.<\/p>\n

In an interview<\/a> with The Strategist<\/em>, the forthright Kausikan notes that much has been said about the return of great-power politics and this is a rude reminder that they did not go away. They\u2019re manifesting themselves now in very dangerous ways.<\/p>\n

He says Russian President Vladimir Putin was clearly surprised by the swift, cohesive and strong Western response, and two or three days into the conflict he rattled his nuclear sabre, \u2018I think just to remind everybody what\u2019s what. I don\u2019t think they\u2019ll be used this time, but could they be used in a conflict if the Russians were losing? Certainly.\u2019<\/p>\n

There are lessons here for the nations of the Indo-Pacific, says Kausikan. \u2018The world is a dangerous place, and you should be prepared. I think anybody who did not believe that would have to rethink their positions fundamentally.\u2019<\/p>\n

Kausikan has no doubt that if Putin were cornered by conventional NATO forces, he\u2019d consider using tactical nuclear weapons. \u2018That\u2019s in the Russian military doctrine.\u2019<\/p>\n

He says that despite the Ukrainians\u2019 heroic resistance, they will eventually be overwhelmed by the sheer weight of the Russian forces. \u2018So, I think in this particular case, the use of tactical nuclear weapons will not arise.\u2019<\/p>\n

But, will Putin\u2019s implied nuclear threats encourage other nations to seek nuclear weapons?<\/p>\n

That\u2019s likely, says Kausikan. Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said soon after the war broke out that Japan should consider allowing the US to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory, as it does with some NATO countries. South Korea has been openly debating the desirability of having an independent nuclear deterrent.<\/p>\n

That would be immensely painful politically and divisive for both countries, Kausikan says. \u2018But I think the logic of events, the logic of their circumstances, will move them in that direction.\u2019<\/p>\n

North Korea isn\u2019t going to give up its nuclear weapons and will continue to improve them. China is engaged in a nuclear modernisation program.<\/p>\n

Kaukisan says a process has begun towards a \u2018multilateral balance of mutual destruction\u2019. That will be a fraught process, \u2018but once we get there, it will be stabilising\u2019, he says. \u2018It will also freeze, together with India and Pakistan\u2014which are nuclear powers, don\u2019t forget\u2014the natural multipolarity of our Indo-Pacific region, and that would put an end to any dream of hierarchy, if such a dream is part of the China dream.\u2019<\/p>\n

He says the only way to deal with a dangerous world is through balance, and many in the region will support Australia improving its defences, including by obtaining nuclear-powered submarines. \u2018Australia by itself cannot be a balance, but Australia, Japan, the US and other like-minded countries is a balance, and if I am right about what the long-term trajectory of our region is, a multilateral balance of nuclear power will arise sooner or later.\u2019<\/p>\n

Then, he says the region won\u2019t be in bad shape. \u2018It will not be dominated by any single power, and that gives all of us more manoeuvre space.\u2019<\/p>\n

Kausikan observes that some analysts had gleefully declared that the Ukraine conflict would distract the United States and the West, as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan distracted them for 20 years. That would give China a 10-year free ride to grow.<\/p>\n

\u2018They seem to have overlooked a small, minor detail,\u2019 says Kausikan. \u2018This is not the US getting bogged down in war. It is China\u2019s partner, Russia, getting bogged down in war, so I don\u2019t see how this will be a distraction for the West. The West has made clear, I think quite wisely, they are not going to get directly involved with troops on the ground. China has been put into a terrible dilemma.\u2019<\/p>\n

He says the fact that Putin waited until after the Beijing Olympics to start the war indicates that the Chinese probably had some knowledge of his plan to invade Ukraine. \u2018However, it is quite clear to me that the Chinese were as taken aback as anybody by the scale of the attack, by the ferocity of the attack, and I think by the response from the West.\u2019<\/p>\n

Now, Xi Jinping has three mutually irreconcilable goals.<\/p>\n

China, says Kausikan, is neurotic about maintaining principles like sovereignty, non-interference and territorial integrity as norms of international relations\u2014and its \u2018no limits\u2019 partner has just thrown those principles out of the window.<\/p>\n

China wants to avoid becoming collateral damage in the sanctions levied against Russia. China\u2019s leaders have got a lot of problems internally, which they\u2019re dealing with. The world economy is still soft. \u2018This is a party congress year, so they don\u2019t need this extra nonsense. So, they\u2019re trying to stay out of being embroiled in the sanctions,\u2019 he says.<\/p>\n

\u2018But thirdly, and I think most crucially to them, they want to keep the partnership with Russia. Whatever reservations they may have about Mr Putin\u2019s large-scale invasion of Ukraine and all the destruction that\u2019s going on there with the disruptions to the world economy, the hard fact is the Chinese have no other partner of equal strategic weight to Russia that shares their discomfort with the current world order and is prepared to work with China to modify it.\u2019<\/p>\n

China being stuck with Russia creates a dilemma, Kausikan says. \u2018So I don\u2019t think they\u2019re very happy in Beijing. They\u2019ve been twisting and turning in their position, trying to avoid using the \u201cinvasion\u201d word, alluding to the fact they\u2019re willing to play some kind of role in brokering a ceasefire, if not a settlement. Nobody seems to be paying them too much attention, not their \u201cno limits\u201d partner, anyway.\u2019<\/p>\n

He says, borrowing a quote from Lenin, that the Chinese view the Russians as \u2018useful idiots\u2019 with a strong military and commodities China wants to buy. The Chinese are cold-blooded about such matters, he says. \u2018They can see the long-term trajectory of Russia is not optimistic one, but it\u2019s useful for the moment and they have no other partner.\u2019<\/p>\n

North Korea is touted as a partner of China, but, Kausikan says, \u2018If you hear the North Koreans talk about the Chinese, you will conclude that they distrust them more than they distrust Americans.\u2019<\/p>\n

When China sees that Russia has gone too far, it can\u2019t be happy, but it can\u2019t abandon Russia, he says.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s economy is in dire straits, and it will need economic support, yet China doesn\u2019t want to be caught up in secondary sanctions.<\/p>\n

But for China to turn its back entirely on Russia would expose the hollowness of their \u2018no limits\u2019 partnership, and sooner or later questions will be asked about the wisdom of its leaders in getting into this relationship.<\/p>\n

Kausikan doesn\u2019t think the Chinese are too worried about outsiders criticising them for not criticising the Russians. \u2018But if their own people start asking questions in a party congress year, that\u2019s rather serious. They\u2019re in a fix.\u2019<\/p>\n

Given the fierce Ukrainian resistance, and the slow Russian progress, will Xi rethink the wisdom of invading Taiwan?<\/p>\n

\u2018I should certainly hope so,\u2019 says Kausikan. \u2018I don\u2019t think any Chinese leader can give up the aspiration to take over Taiwan, but if I was Mr Xi and I\u2019m watching the less than stellar performance of the vaunted Russian military, I will be wondering to myself, \u201cWhat on earth are my generals telling me?\u201d and how much of that can he believe?\u2019 Xi might seek independent verification of what his generals tell him.<\/p>\n

Xi should note the strong Western and international response. \u2018He must know that the hard fact is Ukraine is less important to the US and its East Asian allies than Taiwan.\u2019<\/p>\n

Kausikan says that if the Taiwanese do something provocative, like unilaterally declare independence, that\u2019s one scenario. \u2018But if they don\u2019t do that and there\u2019s a unilateral Chinese attack on Taiwan, that\u2019s an entirely different situation, and I find it very difficult to think of America staying out as it is. America staying out would basically destroy the alliance system in East Asia.<\/p>\n

\u2018If they intervene, as I think they will, I cannot see Japan staying out. I cannot see South Korea staying out, and possibly even Australia and India getting involved in some way. So, I think Mr Xi knows that Taiwan is more important than Ukraine. Economically and strategically, he has seen the international reaction, and if I was him, I\u2019d be pondering this rather deeply.\u2019<\/p>\n

Russia has been surprised by the fight in the outnumbered Ukrainians. Would Taiwan put up the same level of resistance to an invasion by China?<\/p>\n

\u2018Absolutely,\u2019 says Kausikan. \u2018Time is not on China\u2019s side as far as Taiwan is concerned. The Taiwanese identity is separate from the kind of identity Mr Xi Jinping wants to impose on them and it\u2019s growing stronger.\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The nations of the Indo-Pacific are watching Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine closely and it\u2019s likely to drive some to seek access to nuclear weapons, says Singapore\u2019s former foreign minister Bilahari Kausikan. 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