{"id":71483,"date":"2022-03-28T06:00:11","date_gmt":"2022-03-27T19:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71483"},"modified":"2022-03-28T10:10:12","modified_gmt":"2022-03-27T23:10:12","slug":"russias-invasion-of-ukraine-killed-europes-hot-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-killed-europes-hot-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine killed Europe\u2019s hot peace"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The debate about whether we\u2019re in a new cold war has a decisive, brutal answer.<\/p>\n

For Europe, the lines of cold war 2.0 are drawn, no matter how Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine ends.<\/p>\n

NATO doubles<\/a> its military presence near Ukraine and prepares for chemical, biological or even nuclear threats. An economic and financial iron curtain is lowered. Europe and the US wage proxy war by arming Ukraine. The ideological contest is joined. Refugees flee. The European Union, a great project for peace, unites to face war on its border.<\/p>\n

The globalisation built since the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 is a victim of 2.0; a world used to networks must adjust to barriers and blocs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For Europe, geopolitics and geoeconomics have been hit by the equivalent of Covid-19. Vladimir Putin launches his military pandemic and there\u2019s no going back. The dawning era of confrontation and great-power rivalry reaches an all-change moment in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Back in 2018, I wrote a series of columns arguing that we hadn\u2019t yet entered cold war 2.0 (\u2018Not the new cold war<\/a>\u2019, \u2018Hitler\u2019s cold war, Stalin\u2019s cold war, today\u2019s … ?<\/a>\u2019 and \u2018Big power decathlon in a hot peace<\/a>\u2019). What we had at that point was a hot peace. If we were smart and lucky, the hot peace could run for decades. Badly bungled and dumbly driven, the hot peace could create\u00a0opposed blocs that resembled a cold war line-up. But, I pronounced, it was going to need a lot more bad policy and stupidity to reach cold war 2.0.<\/p>\n

Tragically, stupidity has delivered.<\/p>\n

Churchill\u2019s words<\/a> from 1930 hang around the neck of Russia\u2019s president:<\/p>\n

Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The former chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov reports a new Russian joke<\/a> that gets its sharp point from the way the key number mounts each day. Thus, today the Russians would whisper the sly heresy: \u2018We are now entering day 33 of the special military operation to take Kyiv in two days.\u2019<\/p>\n

All the changes provoked by that \u2018special operation\u2019\u2014with many more to come\u2014set the agenda for US President Joe Biden\u2019s trip to Brussels last week for meetings of NATO, the G7 and the European Council.<\/p>\n

Biden replayed a cold war script familiar to Harry Truman and John Kennedy, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan\u2014unite the allies, affirm US commitment, and tread gently in the vicinity of the escalation steps going from military conflict to nuclear conflagration. (Ah, Dr Strangelove, you\u2019re back\u2014we prayed never to see you again.)<\/p>\n

In Poland, Biden could channel Kennedy\u2019s famous Berlin speech<\/a> with his version of \u2018I am a Ukrainian’. Warsaw heard the\u00a0greatest foreign policy speech of Biden\u2019s career<\/a>; even the characteristic Biden stumbles worked, underlining the emotion felt and the strength of the words. But\u00a0the president\u2019s plea for peace couldn\u2019t include a Reagan-style demand to \u2018tear down this wall\u2019<\/a>. Today\u2019s sudden need is for new walls.<\/p>\n

Cold war 2.0 is born in Europe, as was cold war 1.0. So far, so distressingly familiar. What\u2019s not clear on day 33 of Europe\u2019s new cold war is how this will play in Asia.<\/p>\n

In cold war 1.0, the proxy wars were fought in Asia. One of the many unknowables yet to unfold is Asia\u2019s response to Europe\u2019s struggle. The caution of India and ASEAN in commenting on Ukraine is a replay of the old non-aligned instinct and interest.<\/p>\n

In the 20th century, the global balance was set by Europe and the US. In this century, the global balance will be set in the Indo-Pacific. China\u2019s decisions about Putin and Ukraine will shape much. Cold war 1.0 was global. Perhaps cold war 2.0 will be more about Europe, if China holds back from Russia.<\/p>\n

Xi Jinping is going to have to define the limited liability elements of the \u2018no limits\u2019<\/a> partnership he announced with Putin on 4 February. The \u2018no limits\u2019 sentence in the China\u2013Russia communiqu\u00e9 went on to pledge there were \u2018no \u201cforbidden\u201d areas of cooperation\u2019. Oh, how the Chinese apparatchiks who approved those words must be rethinking their career trajectory.<\/p>\n

Within two months of that extravagant blandishment, Beijing confronts what must be limited and how much will be forbidden to its weaker partner. It\u2019s an exquisite cold war dilemma: for the sake of the alliance, how much does the major power, China, tie itself to the choices and caprices of the minor power?<\/p>\n

The Strategist<\/em>\u2019s national security editor, Anastasia Kapetas, has written a series of fine pieces this month probing the emerging limits to China\u2019s help and Russia\u2019s worth<\/a> as a strategic partner<\/a>. Her judgement<\/a> is that \u2018the costs of underwriting the economy of a malevolent nuclear-weapon power in rapid decay could outweigh any gains. Russia may be too big, too nativist and too chaotic to become a useful, quiescent client state for China in the long term.\u2019<\/p>\n

The purpose of holding hands with Putin is to weaken the US, not to bind China to a Russia that daily demonstrates the dimensions of its blunder and the extent of Putin\u2019s blindness.<\/p>\n

The world looked different back on 4 February when Xi signed up to the \u2018no limits\u2019 bit of blandiloquence. What Putin and Xi thought they knew back then is being confounded, as Kapetas notes:<\/p>\n

At the crux of China\u2019s dilemmas is a deeper issue. Russia and Beijing have enjoyed the benefits of the global political and economic order while undermining it under the cover of the grey zone, believing that the status quo powers would be reactive, risk-averse and divided and would continue to focus on damage minimisation rather than coordinated deterrence.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Wars change much, and they can do it quickly. The grey zone needs the cover of the hot peace for its work of misinformation, calibrated shoves and calculated nastiness.<\/p>\n

Cold war 2.0 has swept aside the grey, giving Europe a sharp black\u2013white reality.<\/p>\n

China havers and Asia holds its breath. Europe confronts its new war\u2014both hot and cold\u2014while the Indo-Pacific ponders what comes next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The debate about whether we\u2019re in a new cold war has a decisive, brutal answer. For Europe, the lines of cold war 2.0 are drawn, no matter how Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine ends. NATO doubles …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":71491,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,325,2385,163,714],"class_list":["post-71483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-europe","tag-new-cold-war","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRussia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine killed Europe\u2019s hot peace | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-killed-europes-hot-peace\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine killed Europe\u2019s hot peace | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The debate about whether we\u2019re in a new cold war has a decisive, brutal answer. 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