{"id":71557,"date":"2022-03-29T14:30:22","date_gmt":"2022-03-29T03:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71557"},"modified":"2022-03-29T13:45:31","modified_gmt":"2022-03-29T02:45:31","slug":"putins-revanchist-excuses-for-going-to-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/putins-revanchist-excuses-for-going-to-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin\u2019s revanchist excuses for going to war"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

What are the causes of Russia\u2019s brutal war against Ukraine and why have they created Europe\u2019s most serious conflict since World War II? The answer is in the mind of President Vladimir Putin, the only person in today\u2019s Russia with the authority to go to war.<\/p>\n

Richard Betts warns in his seminal work Surprise attack: lessons for defense planning<\/em>, \u2018Pure bolts from the blue do not happen. Sudden attacks occur after prolonged political conflict.\u2019<\/p>\n

I must stress that I do not agree with any of Putin\u2019s views. However, it is important for us to record what he says\u2014and he says a lot\u2014and to understand how he thinks.<\/p>\n

We need to discuss three major issues: Putin\u2019s perception of why the USSR collapsed more than 30 years ago and what he claims was Russia\u2019s humiliation by an America that proclaimed it won the Cold War; his views about the eastward extension of NATO and its alleged threat to Russia; and the creation of a nation-state called Ukraine 30 years ago and why Putin wrongly considers it part of Russia.<\/p>\n

Putin has described the Soviet Union\u2019s collapse in 1991 as the most serious geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. He witnessed the USSR go from being the peer competitor of the US to becoming a bankrupt power whose GDP collapsed by over 40% in 12 months. Russian citizens lost their life savings, jobs, apartments and perks with the communist party. There were huge shortages and queues for basic foodstuffs, widespread hunger and, it is said, even famine in some remote parts of the USSR.<\/p>\n

Rodric Braithwaite, UK ambassador to Moscow from 1988 to 1992 and chairman of London\u2019s Joint Intelligence Committee from 1992 to 1993, says America and its allies \u2018failed to avoid triumphalism\u2019 over the disintegration of the Soviet empire. The belief in Washington that America won the Cold War, and that it was now the world\u2019s sole superpower, \u2018led America into one diplomatic misjudgement after another in the next three decades\u2019. Braithwaite considers that the Americans acted as if Russia\u2019s foreign and domestic policy was theirs to shape. He quotes President Bill Clinton\u2019s adviser, Strobe Talbott, as saying, \u2018Russia is either coming our way, or it\u2019s not, in which case it is going to founder, as the USSR did.\u2019<\/p>\n

The rotting Soviet economy was declining so rapidly that President Mikhail Gorbachev was begging Washington for a sort of Marshall Plan, involving loans of US$100\u2013150 billion. President George H.W. Bush was facing his own acute budgetary problems and his Treasury secretary, Nicholas Brady, advised that it would be \u2018an absolute disaster\u2019 to give the Soviets \u2018any money to stay as they are\u2019. Brady went on to articulate America\u2019s strategic priority: \u2018What is involved is changing Soviet society so that it can\u2019t afford a defence system. If the Soviets go to a market system, then they can\u2019t afford a large defence establishment. A reform program would turn them into a third-rate power, which is what we want.\u2019<\/p>\n

Bush, advised by Brady, also opposed the idea of providing the Soviets with \u2018maneuvering room\u2019 for paying their debts. Brady was firmly against the idea of a massive Western financial package to stabilise Russia\u2019s economy in its transition to capitalism. He said: \u2018We have just had a momentous triumph for our values and for our vital interests. I think we are in a strong position not to be rushed into hasty decisions. We should be able to resist pressures for large-scale cash assistance.\u2019 Instead, Congress approved US$400 million annually to help dismantle and control Soviet nuclear weapons, including those in Ukraine and Kazakhstan.<\/p>\n

Braithwaite claims that all this seeped into the Russian public consciousness and aroused an overwhelming sense of humiliation and resentment which coloured the making of Russian policy for decades \u2018and was persistently underestimated by Western policymakers and commentators\u2019. In Braithwaite\u2019s view, Western diplomacy towards Russia and Eastern Europe has been by turns arrogant and incompetent.<\/p>\n

Many commentators don\u2019t agree with Braithwaite\u2019s interpretation of the reasons for the Soviet collapse. They consider it was more to do with the bumbling financial incompetence of authorities still captured by their state planning ideology. They also point to the disastrous impact on the Soviet state of the deadly political war between Yeltsin and Gorbachev.<\/p>\n

So, how was NATO\u2019s enlargement handled? Robert Hunter, the US ambassador to NATO from 1993 to 1998, observes that NATO at its 1997 summit, following the conclusion of the NATO\u2013Russia Founding Act, found Russia to be deeply opposed to any idea of NATO membership for Ukraine. Hunter records that the prevailing view in the Bush administration was that, since the Soviet Union had lost the Cold War, the US and NATO \u2018could do as they pleased\u2019. He notes that increasingly evident revanchist Russian impulses, backed by an emerging capacity to act on them, were ignored.<\/p>\n

Hunter observes that Putin\u2019s presentation at the Munich Security Conference in January 2007 was notable for its bluntness. Putin said NATO expansion represented a serious provocation that reduced mutual trust. \u2018And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended?\u2019 He then quoted the speech of NATO Secretary-General Manfred Woerner in Brussels on 17 May 1990: \u2018The fact that we are ready not to place a NATO army outside of German territory gives the Soviet Union a firm security guarantee.\u2019<\/p>\n

There are many different views about what promises were, or were not, given to Moscow about NATO\u2019s expansion. Mary Sarotte in her recent book, Not one inch: America, Russia, and the making of post-Cold War stalemate, <\/em>argues that on 9 February 1990, US Secretary of State James Baker, in conversation with Gorbachev, proposed: \u2018Would you prefer to see a unified Germany outside of NATO, independent and with no US forces, or would you prefer a unified Germany to be tied to NATO, with assurances that NATO\u2019s jurisdiction would not shift one inch eastward from its present position?\u2019 The Soviet leader replied that any expansion of the \u2018zone of NATO\u2019 was not acceptable. And, according to Gorbachev, Baker answered, \u2018We agree with that.\u2019<\/p>\n

Some claim that there\u2019s no record of the Baker\u2013Gorbachev exchange. But Sarotte footnotes her source as West German chancellery documents in a letter that Baker sent on 10 February 1990 to Chancellor Helmut Kohl, recording his meeting with Gorbachev the previous day. Sarotte also quotes from National Security Agency records that Robert Gates, deputy head of the National Security Council, posed the same question to KGB head Vladimir Kryuchkov in KGB headquarters on 9 February 1990. That record states that Gates thought the idea that \u2018NATO troops would move no further east than they now were\u2019 was \u2018a sound proposal\u2019. US authorities continue to point to the lack of any written agreement afterwards as a sign that the secretary of state and Gates \u2018had only been test-driving one potential option of many\u2019.<\/p>\n

In his 2016 book, The new Russia<\/em>, Gorbachev reflects that the issue of enlarging NATO was just one manifestation of America\u2019s triumphalism after \u2018winning\u2019 the Cold War and its \u2018superpower illusions\u2019 (using the words of former US ambassador Jack Matlock), which reached their apogee\u2014said Gorbachev\u2014during the Bush administration. Gorbachev concluded, \u2018I believe there is a desire to keep Russia half strangled as long as possible.\u2019<\/p>\n

Of course, former Warsaw Pact members had an entirely different view about NATO\u2019s expansion after 40 years of subjugation by the USSR. They had experienced violent occupation by Moscow, not least in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. Rather than organically expanding at America\u2019s behest\u2014as some commentators suggest\u2014NATO was enlarged at the specific request of Eastern European countries for obvious security reasons.<\/p>\n

Debates about Russian membership of NATO were resolved 30 years ago, basically in the negative. Russia was considered too big to join NATO because it would dominate Europe. That geopolitical judgement still holds: Russia is too huge and unpredictable for integration within the Western orbit. That certainly can\u2019t be considered a legitimate reason to invade Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s perception of Ukraine as part of Russia has been rightly utterly rejected by the vast number of Ukrainians of both Russian and Ukrainian descent now defending their homeland from Russia\u2019s brutal invasion. Putin\u2019s refusal to accept that Ukraine is a separate country is outrageous.<\/p>\n

In 1991, Gorbachev\u2019s aide, Georgy Shakhnazarov, advised him that Russia should officially declare that the Crimea, Donbas and southern parts of Ukraine \u2018constitute historical parts of Russia, and Russia does not intend to give them up, in case Ukraine leaves the Union\u2019. But apparently Gorbachev never followed this up with either Boris Yeltsin or the president-elect of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, as the Soviet Union disintegrated.<\/p>\n

Putin allegedly authored a paper in July 2021 titled, \u2018On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians\u2019, a 7,000-word diatribe arguing that Russians and Ukrainians are one people sharing\u00a0 essentially \u2018the same historical and spiritual space\u2019\u2019 He argues that modern Ukraine is \u2018entirely the product of the Soviet-era\u2019 and claims that Ukraine was dragged into a dangerous geopolitical game turning it into a barrier between Europe and Russia, \u2018a springboard against Russia\u2019.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s real fear is that the continuation of an independent, democratic Ukraine will contaminate Russia and threaten his position as president. The Maidan revolution in Kyiv in February 2014 that led to the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovich\u2019s pro-Russian regime continues to haunt Putin. A month later, in March 2014, Putin ordered the invasion and occupation of Crimea.<\/p>\n

Putin even claims, \u2018It would not be an exaggeration to say that \u2026 the formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state, aggressive towards Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass destruction against us.\u2019 He threatens to \u2018never allow our historical territories and people close to us living there to be used against Russia. And to those who will undertake such an attempt, I would like to say that this way they will destroy their own country.\u2019 Putin quotes Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, the son of a Russian father and a Ukrainian mother, that historically Russians and Ukrainians \u2018constituted a single people\u2019 and that post-Soviet Russia should preserve its Slav core consisting of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus populated by \u2018three fraternal peoples\u2019.<\/p>\n

Underlying Putin\u2019s posturing is his aim to re-establish Russia as a great power (velikaya derzharva<\/em>). His view is that without dominance over Ukraine, Russia cannot be a great power and that a Ukraine closely associated with NATO\u2014even remaining outside the alliance\u2014is a threat to Russia.<\/p>\n

Putin now believes Russia can demand that its role as a great power be obeyed. But he has seriously overreached and his barbaric attack on Ukraine promises to permanently make Russia a pariah state. Only Putin\u2019s removal can bring any hope of resolution to this bitter conflict.<\/p>\n

So, what does the future look like? It\u2019s predictable that Russia and Ukraine will remain enemies for life. And given that Putin may have further territorial ambitions in the Baltic countries, there\u2019s a heightened risk of a Russian war with NATO that could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. Putin must consider future contingencies both at home and overseas that threaten Russia\u2019s very existence. The risk here is that an isolated and declining Russia with a terminally damaged reputation will be even more dangerous.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What are the causes of Russia\u2019s brutal war against Ukraine and why have they created Europe\u2019s most serious conflict since World War II? 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