{"id":71688,"date":"2022-04-04T12:30:23","date_gmt":"2022-04-04T02:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71688"},"modified":"2022-04-04T11:33:39","modified_gmt":"2022-04-04T01:33:39","slug":"why-china-wont-mediate-an-end-to-the-ukraine-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-china-wont-mediate-an-end-to-the-ukraine-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Why China won\u2019t mediate an end to the Ukraine war"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he could quickly capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine\u2019s government. Whether he was misled by poor intelligence or by his own fantasies about history, his \u2018smash and grab\u2019 failed in the face of effective Ukrainian resistance. He then turned to a brutal bombardment of cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv to terrorise the civilian population into submission\u2014as he had previously done in Grozny and Aleppo. The tragic upshot is that Ukraine\u2019s heroic resistance has been accompanied by increasing civilian suffering.<\/p>\n

Is there any way to end this nightmare quickly? One possibility is for Chinese President Xi Jinping to see that he has a \u2018Teddy Roosevelt moment\u2019. After the brutal war between Russia and Japan in 1905, Roosevelt stepped in to mediate. He pressed hard for the parties to compromise and ultimately prevailed, thereby boosting America\u2019s global influence and winning himself a Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n

Turkey, Israel and France (among others) are attempting to mediate in Russia\u2019s current war, but they don\u2019t have nearly as much leverage with Putin as his ally Xi does. The question is whether Xi has the imagination and the courage to use it.<\/p>\n

The answer, thus far, is no. While China has long portrayed itself as a defender of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, it has tolerated Putin\u2019s brazen violation of the United Nations charter. When the UN Security Council voted on a resolution condemning Russia\u2019s invasion, China abstained. China has criticised Western sanctions against Russia and parroted Russian propaganda about the war being caused by America\u2019s own plans to pursue NATO enlargement, even though it had been clear for years that NATO members weren\u2019t going to vote to admit Ukraine.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s unwillingness to criticise Russia has left it sitting on the diplomatic sidelines, unable to wield influence commensurate with its growing economic and military strength. Although Chinese censors limit most news about the war, some in Beijing have openly wondered whether China\u2019s current diplomatic stance best serves its national interests. For example, Wang Huiyao, the president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, has suggested<\/a> that China should mediate to give Putin an \u2018off-ramp\u2019 from his disastrous Ukraine policy.<\/p>\n

Why might this be in China\u2019s interest? For one thing, China\u2019s position undermines its claim to be a defender of sovereignty, which it uses to appeal to its neighbours in Southeast Asia. Equally important, the war is blunting China\u2019s soft power in Europe, which accounts for five times more of China\u2019s trade than Russia does. The war has also driven up the price of China\u2019s oil and grain imports. Grain prices will become even more salient if China experiences the same degree of severe flooding that it did last year.<\/p>\n

As the war drags on and Western sanctions increase, there\u2019s also a danger that secondary sanctions will spill over and harm China. Providing Putin with a face-saving off-ramp could address this and the other dangers the war poses. And it would deepen Russia\u2019s growing dependence on China and boost China\u2019s own global image and standing. Xi might even win a Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n

Of course, there would be costs associated with such an initiative. Cautious Chinese diplomats see the war in Ukraine as a decidedly European conflict. If it saps the strength of older powers such as Europe, the US and Russia, China can benefit by standing back and letting the conflict burn itself out. Moreover, although the war is weakening an ally (a potential cost), it also has changed the global political agenda in ways that are advantageous to China. No longer can the US talk about a pivot to Asia, where it would focus its attention on China.<\/p>\n

After the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese leaders concluded that the US was in decline, and that led them to abandon Deng Xiaoping\u2019s patient and cautious foreign policy. Nationalism has since been rising in the country, and Xi has expressed the hope that China will decisively displace the US geopolitically by 2049\u2014the centennial of the People\u2019s Republic.<\/p>\n

The primary obstacle to Xi\u2019s dream is of course the US, followed by China\u2019s lack of allies other than Russia. Xi and Putin have forged a personal relationship that has reinforced what was previously an alliance of convenience. Even if the war in Ukraine has made that alliance somewhat less convenient, Xi may still feel that it\u2019s prudent to \u2018dance with the one who brought you to the party\u2019.<\/p>\n

Besides, initiating a Rooseveltian move would probably require more imagination and flexibility than the Chinese leadership is capable of. One also must consider a domestic political element that a Chinese friend recently pointed out to me: with Xi seeking a third presidential term this year, what matters most to him is maintaining the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s control of the country and his own control of the party.<\/p>\n

As economic growth has slowed, the party has increasingly relied on nationalism to legitimise its rule. That\u2019s why Chinese official media and nationalistic websites have repeated Putin\u2019s claims that Ukraine is a puppet of the West and that Russia is standing up to America\u2019s bullying of both Russia and China. Support for Putin\u2019s war is in keeping with China\u2019s nationalist \u2018wolf-warrior diplomacy\u2019.<\/p>\n

But while Putin\u2019s invasion has upended world politics, it has not changed the underlying balance of power. If anything, it has slightly strengthened the US position. NATO and America\u2019s alliances have been reinforced, with Germany embracing a far more muscular defence posture than at any time in decades. Meanwhile, Russia\u2019s reputation as a formidable military power has suffered a serious blow. Its economy is weakened, and its soft power lies in tatters. China can no longer tout the alliance of autocracies as proof that the East wind is prevailing over the West.<\/p>\n

China could still change the dynamic by seizing its Teddy Roosevelt opportunity. But I doubt that it will.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he could quickly capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine\u2019s government. Whether he was misled by poor intelligence or by his own fantasies about history, his \u2018smash and grab\u2019 failed in the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":500,"featured_media":71700,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,294,163,744,204],"class_list":["post-71688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-diplomacy","tag-russia","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-xi-jinping","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy China won\u2019t mediate an end to the Ukraine war | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-china-wont-mediate-an-end-to-the-ukraine-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why China won\u2019t mediate an end to the Ukraine war | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he could quickly capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine\u2019s government. 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