{"id":71694,"date":"2022-04-04T14:30:21","date_gmt":"2022-04-04T04:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71694"},"modified":"2022-04-04T14:57:20","modified_gmt":"2022-04-04T04:57:20","slug":"pakistans-constitutional-crisis-could-lead-to-military-rule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/pakistans-constitutional-crisis-could-lead-to-military-rule\/","title":{"rendered":"Pakistan\u2019s constitutional crisis could lead to military rule"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pakistan is in the midst of a major political and constitutional crisis. A no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, which was expected to garner a majority of votes, was thrown out on 3 April by the deputy speaker of the National Assembly as \u2018unconstitutional<\/a>\u2019. The reason cited was the presumed existence of a \u2018foreign conspiracy\u2019, of which the no-confidence motion was considered a part, to overthrow the elected government.<\/p>\n

The evidence for this argument was provided by a communication from Pakistan\u2019s ambassador in Washington to the Pakistan government about a meeting with US government officials on 7 March, a day before the opposition moved the no-confidence resolution in the National Assembly. The information minister declared in the House: \u2018We were told that relations with Pakistan were dependent on the success of the no-confidence motion. We were told that if the motion fails, then Pakistan\u2019s path would be very difficult. This is an operation for a regime change by a foreign government\u2019.<\/p>\n

Following the dismissal of the no-confidence motion, President Arif Alvi, on Khan\u2019s advice, dissolved the National Assembly, thus triggering the constitutional provision that elections must be held within 90 days. The chief justice of Pakistan has taken suo moto<\/em> notice of the situation, and the supreme court has been convened<\/a> to address the constitutionality of the dismissal of the motion and of the advice by a prime minister facing such a motion for the dissolution of the National Assembly.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the court\u2019s decision on the issue, the twin actions by the speaker and the president have created a major constitutional crisis that opens the way for the military to once again assume power in Pakistan.<\/p>\n

Despite the military\u2019s presumed unwillingness to take direct control of the country, it had become increasingly clear in recent months that it wanted to remove Khan after having engineered his election in 2018. The military brass had become increasingly disillusioned with Khan because of his non-performance, especially in the economic arena, and because of differences over major issues of foreign policy, especially regarding relations with the US and Islamabad\u2019s stand on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was made evident in a speech given by Chief of Army Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa a day before the vote on the no-confidence motion.<\/p>\n

By signalling its displeasure with Khan over the past few months, the military emboldened the opposition and encouraged parties allied with Khan\u2019s Pakistan\u00a0Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, to desert him, thus depriving him of a majority in the National Assembly. The amount of horse-trading and shifting of loyalties that preceded the vote was mind-boggling even for Pakistan, which is much used to such shenanigans.<\/p>\n

Chronic political instability in Pakistan works in favour of the institutional interests of the military and the personal interests of its leaders. It allows the military to assume direct power if it so wishes by arguing that it is the only institution capable of providing decent governance. Alternatively, it provides the military the opportunity to act as the real power behind the throne even when civilian governments are in office. The military has repeatedly unseated prime ministers who have shown indications of acting independently of its diktats.<\/p>\n

The current situation has been made more poignant by the fact that Khan, a former world-class cricketer, was helped by the military to attain office just four years ago when it pressured several opposition politicians into deserting their parties before elections or into joining Khan\u2019s PTI in a coalition after the elections. This is the reason Khan is commonly referred to in Pakistan as the \u2018selected\u2019 rather than the \u2018elected\u2019 prime minister.<\/p>\n

However, in the past few months he has had a dramatic falling out with the military brass on several issues, including appointments of senior officers in the army, especially the head of Inter-Services Intelligence; the extension of the tenure of General Bajwa as chief of army staff; important foreign policy issues such as Pakistan\u2019s relations with the US; and his stand on Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/a>. While Khan has accused Washington of engineering his downfall because of his independent foreign policy stance, Bajwa has emphasised the importance of Pakistan\u2019s strategic and economic relationship with the US.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Khan\u2019s populist rhetoric combining religious and nationalist symbols seems to have scared the military high command since it can potentially be used to challenge the military\u2019s domination of the country\u2019s polity. Given Khan\u2019s oratorical skills and the fund of goodwill he possesses among the populace from his cricketing days and his attempt at carving out an independent foreign policy for Pakistan, the military leadership is apprehensive that he might be able to return to power despite its opposition hidden behind the cloak of \u2018neutrality\u2019. In that case a real civil\u2013military clash may well be on the cards.<\/p>\n

All these considerations may once again persuade the military to assume power directly as it did in 1958, 1977 and 1999 as the \u2018saviour of the country\u2019 and \u2018guardian of constitutional government\u2019. If this comes to pass, the supreme court can be expected to declare such a move \u2018constitutional\u2019 in light of the \u2018doctrine of necessity\u2019 as it has done in the past. Given the perilous economic situation and the level of political mobilisation in Pakistan in favour of Khan, it will not be an appealing choice for the military, but Khan\u2019s latest bold moves may have left the top brass with little choice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pakistan is in the midst of a major political and constitutional crisis. 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