{"id":71815,"date":"2022-04-08T11:00:11","date_gmt":"2022-04-08T01:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=71815"},"modified":"2022-04-08T11:04:33","modified_gmt":"2022-04-08T01:04:33","slug":"whose-side-is-india-on-in-the-russo-ukrainian-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/whose-side-is-india-on-in-the-russo-ukrainian-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Whose side is India on in the Russo-Ukrainian war?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Towards the end of March, an unusual sequence of diplomatic visitors passed through India\u2019s capital. First came Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg and US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland. They were followed by Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.<\/p>\n

The parade continued. Next to arrive were Gabriele Visentin, the European Union\u2019s special envoy for the Indo-Pacific; Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico\u2019s foreign minister; Jens Pl\u00f6tner, foreign and security policy adviser to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; and Geoffrey van Leeuwen, foreign affairs and defence adviser to Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Last and by no means least were US Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. There was also an online Indo-Australian summit.<\/p>\n

The Ukraine war has exposed India\u2019s strategic vulnerabilities<\/a> in a tough neighbourhood as arguably nothing else could, raising fundamental questions about the country\u2019s global position and regional security. But, paradoxically\u2014as the slew of recent high-profile visits confirms\u2014the conflict has increased India\u2019s strategic importance and, in the short term, widened its options.<\/p>\n

Has Prime Minister Narendra Modi used this room for manoeuvre well? The West, even as it seeks to line up India on its side vis-\u00e0-vis Ukraine, has signalled its understanding of India\u2019s dependence on Russia for vital defence equipment and long history of close diplomatic relations with the Kremlin.<\/p>\n

China has been somewhat surprised to find itself on the same page as India regarding the war. Both countries abstained in a series of United Nations votes condemning the Russian invasion and have maintained their communication channels with the Kremlin despite Western sanctions. China has been asking for restoration of \u2018normal\u2019 bilateral relations with India, which have been in a deep freeze since violent border clashes in June 2020 killed 20 Indian soldiers. \u2018The world will listen when China and India speak with one voice,\u2019 Wang reportedly stated<\/a> on his recent visit to Delhi.<\/p>\n

Russia, no doubt eager to thank India for \u2018understanding\u2019 the Kremlin\u2019s position, has offered the country economic incentives\u2014notably, discounted oil and gas<\/a> and affordable fertiliser\u2014to dissuade it from changing its stance.<\/p>\n

While India\u2019s longstanding focus on \u2018strategic autonomy\u2019 has kept it out of formal alliances, its broad geopolitical orientation has been veering towards a special partnership with the United States, notably in the Indo-Pacific. India is a member of the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal grouping also including Japan and Australia that is widely seen as a way to check China\u2019s regional ambitions.<\/p>\n

India has also significantly increased its defence purchases from the West in recent years, and, with the US, is seeking to modernise its manufacturing base for military equipment. This process is likely to be accelerated by India\u2019s realisation that its dependence on Russian supplies imposes significant constraints, particularly in the event of a future border crisis with China.<\/p>\n

Singh, the US deputy national security adviser, pointedly warned of \u2018consequences\u2019 should India breach the Western-led sanctions on Russia, and he urged India to recognise the diminishing value of its close relationship with the Kremlin. \u2018The more Russia becomes China\u2019s junior partner, the more leverage China gains over Russia, the less and less favourable that is for India\u2019s strategic posture,\u2019 he told<\/a> an Indian TV channel. \u2018Does anyone think that if China breaches the Line of Actual Control, that Russia would now come to India\u2019s defence? I don\u2019t.\u2019<\/p>\n

China has been pushing the BRICS grouping (of which it is a member, along with Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as models of non-Western collaboration that can ensure a multipolar world order. But Chinese blandishments towards India are unlikely to succeed if China\u2019s leaders aren\u2019t willing to reverse their military gains from unprovoked Himalayan incursions in mid-2020. India will accept nothing less<\/a> than a return to the status quo ante of April 2020 as the price for normalising bilateral relations. But whether it can leverage China\u2019s overtures to achieve results on the ground remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

Russia, meanwhile, is aware that India\u2019s refusal to condemn its assault on Ukraine doesn\u2019t imply support. India has at no stage endorsed the Russian military campaign, and its language has notably hardened as the war has dragged on. Indian statements now pointedly refer to the inviolability of borders, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, and the inadmissibility of resorting to force to resolve political disputes, even while calling on \u2018both sides\u2019 to pursue diplomatic negotiations.<\/p>\n

India has also been quick to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, sending 90 tonnes<\/a> of relief materials. As the destruction has become more intense, its aid is likely to continue. India will gladly purchase essential supplies of fuel and fertiliser from Russia at discounted rates in roubles. But its diplomatic stance, and decreasing reliance on Russian defence equipment, mean that it\u2019s not completely in Russia\u2019s camp.<\/p>\n

Still, India\u2019s calls for peace in Ukraine would have been more credible had it taken steps to bring about that outcome. Whereas countries like Turkey and Israel have been actively engaged in peace diplomacy, India has made no effort to play a mediating role, despite at one point sending four cabinet ministers<\/a> to Europe to supervise the evacuation of Indian citizens from Ukraine. Even Lavrov suggested<\/a> in Delhi that India could help \u2018support\u2019 a mediation process.<\/p>\n

India could have used the diplomatic attention it has been getting over Ukraine to carve out a role worthy of its aspirations for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Sadly, its ambitions seem to have been too modest.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, observed<\/a> in 1946, \u2018India, constituted as she is, cannot play a secondary part in the world. She will either count for a great deal or not count at all.\u2019 Ukraine is a test case, and the jury remains out. Will today\u2019s India count at all?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Towards the end of March, an unusual sequence of diplomatic visitors passed through India\u2019s capital. 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