{"id":72362,"date":"2022-05-05T11:00:50","date_gmt":"2022-05-05T01:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=72362"},"modified":"2022-05-05T10:59:29","modified_gmt":"2022-05-05T00:59:29","slug":"the-end-of-nordic-neutrality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-nordic-neutrality\/","title":{"rendered":"The end of Nordic neutrality"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Throughout the Cold War, \u2018non-aligned in peace, neutral in wartime\u2019 was not only Sweden\u2019s security doctrine<\/a>, but also helped shape the national identity and self-understanding of the Swedes. But Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine may soon upend the country\u2019s traditional non-aligned stance, by likely triggering both countries to apply for NATO membership.<\/p>\n

As recently as 8 March, two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats said<\/a> that applying to join NATO \u2018in the current situation [\u2026] would further destabilize this area of Europe and increase tensions\u2019. Many centre-right commentators immediately accused her of accepting<\/a> Putin\u2019s view that a sovereign state\u2019s choice to join NATO can be considered a provocation against Russia.<\/p>\n

But strong signals<\/a> from within the Social Democrats now indicate that Sweden may apply for NATO membership as early as the alliance\u2019s Madrid summit in June. The country\u2019s security stance has already changed radically. The government has sent weapons to Ukraine<\/a> and the Swedish public has begun googling about bomb shelters<\/a> and iodine tablets<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pro-NATO developments in neighbouring Finland are also influencing Sweden\u2019s security debate. Finland\u2019s vulnerability to the Soviet Union and then Russia was long an important reason for Swedish non-alignment, as policymakers assumed that Finland would fall under the Kremlin\u2019s control if Sweden joined NATO. In recent years, Sweden has invested heavily in security cooperation<\/a> with Finland.<\/p>\n

When Andersson met Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin in Stockholm in April, the two leaders emphasised<\/a> that although each country will reach an independent decision on NATO membership, they will do so in close dialogue with each other. Marin promised a Finnish decision within weeks, while the Swedish parliament will publish a report<\/a> in this month presenting its position on the country\u2019s membership. No one should be surprised if the two Nordic states act in tandem<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For Sweden, non-alignment and neutrality are not only established virtues; there is also a sense that these policies served the country well during the wars of the 20th and early 21st centuries. Of course, reality did not always match rhetoric. During World War II, Sweden was not really neutral, but made significant concessions<\/a> to Nazi Germany. Shortly after the war, it acceded to the Kremlin\u2019s demands by\u2014among other shameful acts of appeasement\u2014extraditing soldiers<\/a> from the Baltic states to the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n

During the Cold War, however, Sweden maintained a \u2018hidden alliance<\/a>\u2019 with NATO through extensive covert cooperation. This policy contrasted sharply with official rhetoric, which portrayed the country as taking a middle position between two equally reprehensible powers\u2014the Soviet Union and the United States. Under Olof Palme, who led the Social Democrats from 1969 until his assassination in 1986 and twice served as prime minister, NATO was dismissed as a menacing \u2018nuclear alliance<\/a>\u2019. But, while publicly anti-American<\/a>, Palme emphasised privately that cooperation with NATO must continue.<\/p>\n

Palme\u2019s official security doctrine attained a kind of sacred status in Sweden upon his death, and his spirit has long influenced the country\u2019s foreign service. In the 2010 election campaign, the Social Democrats, playing on the old threat of the \u2018nuclear alliance\u2019, demanded<\/a> that \u2018the US dismantle its nuclear weapons and military bases outside the country\u2019s borders\u2019.<\/p>\n

But, in practice, Sweden has abandoned neutrality and taken ever-greater steps away from non-alignment. As a European Union member since 1995, the country has close political and economic links to other member states. Since 2009, it has been bound by the EU solidarity clause<\/a>, which obliges members to assist other EU countries\u2014although not necessarily by military means\u2014in the event of an armed attack.<\/p>\n

Sweden has also gradually deepened its cooperation with NATO, and is now (like Finland) a so-called Enhanced Opportunity Partner<\/a>. It is in the Partnership for Peace, has contributed troops to international operations under the NATO flag, and participates in the alliance\u2019s military exercises. Most importantly, Swedish defence planning relies heavily on the country receiving outside help in the event of war.<\/p>\n

Sweden\u2019s Cold War policy of neutrality required strong defence forces, and military expenditure of up to 4% of GDP<\/a>. The country maintained the world\u2019s fourth-largest<\/a> air force and had the ability to mobilise almost its entire military-age male population within a few days. Although Sweden has kept its edge in terms of military technology since the end of the Cold War, the de facto abolition of conscription and the shift in the military\u2019s focus to foreign missions have weakened its defence capabilities. Conscription has recently been revived<\/a>, and the Home Guard was flooded<\/a> with applications following Russia\u2019s invasion.<\/p>\n

But Sweden\u2019s defence spending currently amounts to only 1.3% of GDP<\/a>. In 2013, the then-supreme military commander, Sverker G\u00f6ranson, publicly admitted<\/a> that Sweden could withstand an attack \u2018for about a week. Then we have to get help from other countries.\u2019 Only after the Ukraine war began did Andersson announce<\/a> that Swedish defence expenditure would increase to 2% of GDP.<\/p>\n

While Sweden\u2019s defence plans rely significantly on assistance from others, the country does not benefit<\/a> from the collective-security guarantee enshrined in Article 5<\/a> of the North Atlantic Treaty. And Russian aggression seems to stop only at the borders of full NATO members, not partners of the alliance like Ukraine and Georgia.<\/p>\n

The Swedish public thinks partnership with NATO is no longer good enough. When asked on 1 January whether Sweden should apply<\/a> for NATO membership, 34% of Swedes agreed and 37% disagreed. By mid-April, 47% were in favour and only 28% were opposed. And 59%<\/a> thought Sweden should join NATO if Finland does, with only 17% opposed. At the beginning of May, an opinion poll<\/a> for the first time showed a majority (51%) in favour of NATO membership. Given this shift in public sentiment, we can expect Sweden to end its charade of neutrality and non-alignment once and for all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Throughout the Cold War, \u2018non-aligned in peace, neutral in wartime\u2019 was not only Sweden\u2019s security doctrine, but also helped shape the national identity and self-understanding of the Swedes. But Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine may soon …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1548,"featured_media":72364,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3277,261,163,1111,714],"class_list":["post-72362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-finland","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-sweden","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe end of Nordic neutrality | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-nordic-neutrality\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The end of Nordic neutrality | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Throughout the Cold War, \u2018non-aligned in peace, neutral in wartime\u2019 was not only Sweden\u2019s security doctrine, but also helped shape the national identity and self-understanding of the Swedes. 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