{"id":72429,"date":"2022-05-06T13:00:02","date_gmt":"2022-05-06T03:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=72429"},"modified":"2022-05-06T13:07:02","modified_gmt":"2022-05-06T03:07:02","slug":"the-threat-spectrum-33","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum-33\/","title":{"rendered":"The threat spectrum"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Planet A<\/strong><\/p>\n

Climate security must become a higher priority for Australia in the region, says former Australian Defence Force chief and current executive member of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group Chris Barrie<\/a>. Barrie recommends creating a new Pacific climate security initiative to facilitate regional re-engagement, particularly after the Solomon Islands alarmed Australia and its allies by signing a security agreement<\/a> with China.<\/p>\n

Barrie has issued similar statements<\/a> in the past, recommending a new climate security partnership between Pacific nations and partners like Australia. Climate change has long been considered a significant issue in the region. In 2018, the Pacific Islands Forum adopted the Boe Declaration<\/a>, which expanded the concept of security to include environmental security.<\/p>\n

Barrie provides a couple of examples about what should be included in such an initiative, such as more money for the UN Green Climate fund. While a climate security package would be welcomed by Pacific leaders, it would also need to include economic aid and proposals to handle climate-change-related people movement.<\/p>\n

Democracy watch<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the Philippines\u2019 presidential and vice-presidential election campaigns enter the final days before the vote on 9 May, polling suggests<\/a> that the Bongbong Marcos \u2013 Sara Duterte ticket will likely win, with a 36.5% lead over the nearest rival, Vice-President Maria Robredo. Marcos and Duterte both claim political pedigrees\u2014Bongbong is the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos and Sara is the daughter of incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte.<\/p>\n

The election has been described by some<\/a> analysts as a vote on the future of democracy in the Philippines democracy, with the Marcos\u2013Duterte ticket embracing a revisionist<\/a>, authoritarian<\/a> platform and centre-left challenger Robredo promising government reform<\/a>. Campaigning has been mired in widespread disinformation<\/a>, tracing back<\/a> to narratives of Robredo having \u2018stolen\u2019 the vice-presidency from Marcos in the 2016 election.<\/p>\n

Southeast Asia\u2019s authoritarian backsliding in recent years has dimmed the optimism<\/a> of the early 2000s that rising economies would lead to the strengthening of democracy. A Marcos victory in the region\u2019s second most populous country would be a further setback for democratic norms.<\/p>\n

Information operations<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US Department of Homeland Security has unveiled its new disinformation governance board tasked with monitoring and advising<\/a> on disinformation campaigns of state and non-state actors. Ironically, the board has itself been the target of disinformation, with critics saying it was set up<\/a> to suppress the speech of US citizens.<\/p>\n

The board has no operational authority<\/a> and is primarily a bureaucratic instrument to assist the department\u2019s efforts to counter disinformation. The timing of this announcement also coincides with a broader discussion on the limits of freedom of expression. Elon Musk recently escalated his \u2018free speech crusade\u2019 by moving to acquire Twitter and signalling his intention<\/a> to limit its content moderation policies.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a growing awareness<\/a> of the vulnerability of liberal democracies to foreign and domestic disinformation campaigns, as anti-democratic actors weaponise people\u2019s commitment to liberal values. The issue of what to do about disinformation continues to be hotly debated and will likely feature prominently<\/a> in the US midterm elections in November.<\/p>\n

Follow the money<\/strong><\/p>\n

The European Union is preparing a sixth package<\/a> of sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine, including a proposal for an oil embargo.<\/p>\n

Germany, which was initially reluctant<\/a> to support strong energy sanctions, has now come out in favour of them, but says it requires a \u2018few months<\/a>\u2019 to adapt its infrastructure before ending all crude oil shipments from Russia. Countries that border Russia or Ukraine, like the Baltic states and Poland, have advocated immediately blocking<\/a> Russian oil imports. Hungary and Slovakia have said they will not back<\/a> the embargo, but it\u2019s possible they could receive an exemption or extension of time to avoid a veto on the measures.<\/p>\n

For weeks, such a ban has been considered<\/a> pivotal to depriving the Russian war machine of money to sustain the invasion. However, some have urged caution<\/a>, saying it could contribute to a regional recession.<\/p>\n

Terror byte<\/strong><\/p>\n

In an internal memo to member states, the EU Council\u2019s French presidency warned<\/a> that the \u2018online presence of right-wing violent extremist groups has been continuously rising, since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic\u2019. The memo said that most potential attackers were loners, and the time spent in isolation due to pandemic restrictions could exacerbate mental health problems.<\/p>\n

The pandemic\u2019s impact on terrorism and counterterrorism is a growing concern in the EU. Isolation and disruption to people\u2019s daily lives has increased susceptibility to radicalisation<\/a>, and terrorists are linking extremist propaganda and recruitment material with Covid-19-related posts.<\/p>\n

To respond to these concerns, a new regulation<\/a> addressing the dissemination of terrorist content online will come into force on 7 June in the EU. The regulation recognises the major threat posed by far-right terrorists<\/a> to European security. However, social media takedown policies may not be effective since much of this material has migrated to encrypted messaging systems like Telegram, which are much harder to police.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Planet A Climate security must become a higher priority for Australia in the region, says former Australian Defence Force chief and current executive member of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group Chris Barrie. Barrie recommends …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1514,"featured_media":72431,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[283,2279,325,370,127],"class_list":["post-72429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-climate-change","tag-disinformation","tag-europe","tag-philippines","tag-terrorism"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe threat spectrum | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum-33\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The threat spectrum | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Planet A Climate security must become a higher priority for Australia in the region, says former Australian Defence Force chief and current executive member of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group Chris Barrie. 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