{"id":72723,"date":"2022-05-20T12:45:30","date_gmt":"2022-05-20T02:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=72723"},"modified":"2022-05-20T12:42:59","modified_gmt":"2022-05-20T02:42:59","slug":"the-threat-spectrum-34","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum-34\/","title":{"rendered":"The threat spectrum"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Planet A<\/strong><\/p>\n

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol has warned<\/a> against investing in new oil and gas ventures, a move that would overwhelm current carbon budgets needed to keep temperatures rises to 1.5\u00b0C above preindustrial levels. Birol further argued that nations seeking to replace Russian fossil fuels with new oil and gas facilities wouldn\u2019t have the desired effect of lowering energy prices because it would be many years before production began.<\/p>\n

Birol\u2019s statements were included in a Guardian<\/em> investigation, which revealed companies<\/a> were planning major \u2018carbon bomb\u2019 projects. Carbon bombs are projects capable of pumping out at least 1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide<\/a> over their lifetimes, which is equivalent to about 18 years of today\u2019s global emissions. The investigation also found that nearly 200 carbon bomb projects<\/a> are planned or have already begun production.<\/p>\n

The addition of more such projects would likely have a disastrous impact<\/a> on attempts to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.<\/p>\n

Democracy watch<\/strong><\/p>\n

Following the re-election of Hungary\u2019s Viktor Orban for a fourth consecutive term<\/a> as prime minister last month, the European Parliament released a draft report characterising Hungary as a \u2018hybrid regime of electoral autocracy\u2019<\/a>. While not labelling Orban a fully fledged autocrat, the report asserts that his administration\u2019s abuses of power are sufficient to disqualify Hungary<\/a> as a democracy, despite its holding ostensibly democratic elections.<\/p>\n

Outside the European Parliament, experts concur that Orban has triggered a decade of \u2018severe democratic backsliding<\/a>\u2019 in Hungary. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, which tracks global democratic trends, says Hungary has experienced steep declines<\/a> in electoral legitimacy, judicial independence and media integrity since Orban\u2019s 2010 election.<\/p>\n

This \u2018backsliding\u2019 is particularly troubling in the context of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. As a member of the European Union, Hungary can unilaterally vote down<\/a> petroleum sanctions critical to Europe\u2019s response<\/a> to Russian aggression. Should Orban further consolidate himself as an immovable pro-Putin autocrat<\/a> in the EU\u2019s ranks, Russia will profit from the internal obstacles impeding comprehensive EU sanctions.<\/p>\n

Information operations<\/strong><\/p>\n

Top pro-Kremlin Telegram channels in Russia have more subscribers, more views and gain followers faster than their counterparts that are critical of the Kremlin, according to a new study<\/a> by Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab).<\/p>\n

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has tightened its control<\/a> over popular social media networks including Facebook and TikTok. With a history of being leveraged as a communication tool<\/a> for opposition movements and records of refusing calls<\/a> to moderate content, Telegram has been seen by NiemanLab<\/a> as a potential key channel to reduce disinformation and its impact.<\/p>\n

However, after analysing the top 50 Russian channels in TGStat\u2019s<\/a> news and mass media category, DFRLab discovered<\/a> that the pro-Kremlin channels outperformed channels critical of Kremlin across a variety of metrics, including views, shares, reach, number of subscribers and growth in followers.<\/p>\n

This imbalance makes it more difficult for Russian users to access accurate information on the Russia\u2013Ukraine war.<\/p>\n

Follow the money<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sanctions<\/a> targeting Russia\u2019s oil and gas sector in response to President Vladimir Putin\u2019s war in Ukraine have caused the Biden administration to look for energy security closer to home. Negotiations between Venezuela and the US resurfaced this week on the easing of sanctions imposed<\/a> in 2019 against Nicolas Maduro\u2019s regime for human rights abuses<\/a> and antidemocratic actions<\/a>. The embargo on Venezuelan oil crushed the country\u2019s economy but failed to topple Maduro\u2019s authoritarian leadership<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Biden administration\u2019s recent engagement with Maduro, despite its recognition of Juan Guaido as Venezuela\u2019s legitimate leader, represents a major foreign policy shift<\/a> and the discussions have been met with significant criticism<\/a> from Maduro\u2019s opponents<\/a>. Some commentators have been urging the US to remain committed<\/a> to its economic stance against authoritarianism. They argue\u00a0that easing sanctions regardless of democratic progress in Venezuela will undermine the global democratic movement<\/a> and have little effect on global oil supplies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Terror byte<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ten people were killed<\/a> on Saturday in a racially motivated terrorist attack in a majority African American neighbourhood in Buffalo, New York. The suspect, Payton Gendron, is in detention while officials build a case<\/a> to prosecute him for hate crimes and a potential terrorism charge as well.<\/p>\n

A manifesto believed to have been written by Gendron first appeared<\/a> online two days before the shooting, and has since been disseminated through encrypted messaging platforms such as Telegram and Signal. The manifesto clearly articulates his motivation, with numerous references<\/a> to white-supremacist tropes such as \u2018white replacement theory\u2019, which claims that the low fertility and high immigration rates of Western countries threatens their cultural identity. It is similar in content<\/a> to that written by Brenton Tarrant, the gunman of the 2019 Christchurch mosque shootings, whom Gendron acknowledges played a pivotal role in his ideological formation.<\/p>\n

As the cyber constellation of white-supremacist actors expands, so too does the danger of disaffected individuals being radicalised. This latest attack points to the urgent need for direct and early intervention<\/a> to counter the dissemination of these radicalising narratives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Planet A International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol has warned against investing in new oil and gas ventures, a move that would overwhelm current carbon budgets needed to keep temperatures rises to 1.5\u00b0C above …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1514,"featured_media":72727,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[283,106,2279,379,2093],"class_list":["post-72723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-climate-change","tag-democracy","tag-disinformation","tag-sanctions","tag-violent-extremism"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe threat spectrum | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum-34\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The threat spectrum | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Planet A International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol has warned against investing in new oil and gas ventures, a move that would overwhelm current carbon budgets needed to keep temperatures rises to 1.5\u00b0C above ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum-34\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-05-20T02:45:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-05-20T02:42:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/GettyImages-1240776882.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Joshua Dunne\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Joshua Dunne\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum-34\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/GettyImages-1240776882.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/GettyImages-1240776882.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"BUFFALO, NY - MAY 19: Kimberly Johnson, of Buffalo, places her hand on a photo of the late Hayward Patterson, at makeshift memorial across the street from the scene of a mass shooting at Tops Friendly Market at Jefferson Avenue and Riley Street on Thursday, May 19, 2022 in Buffalo, NY. 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