{"id":72860,"date":"2022-05-28T06:00:15","date_gmt":"2022-05-27T20:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=72860"},"modified":"2022-05-27T19:08:42","modified_gmt":"2022-05-27T09:08:42","slug":"new-government-can-deliver-what-australia-needs-to-defend-itself-in-a-dangerous-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/new-government-can-deliver-what-australia-needs-to-defend-itself-in-a-dangerous-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"New government can deliver what Australia needs to defend itself in a dangerous decade"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Skilled diplomacy, a powerful and achievable deterrent capability developed with urgency, and the highly trained personnel to drive a technically skilled defence force will be crucial to Australia\u2019s defence in the uncertain decades ahead.<\/p>\n

A big dilemma confronting the incoming defence minister is how to resolve the disconnect between the 2020 defence strategic update<\/a>, which signalled that Australia might find itself embroiled in a major conflict without the 10 years\u2019 warning time that has long been considered likely, and the 2020 force structure plan<\/a> which set out a plan to re-equip the Australian Defence Force that would not be delivered for decades.<\/p>\n

During the election campaign, Labor\u2019s defence spokesperson, Brendan O\u2019Connor, signed up to the Coalition\u2019s increases to Defence spending, with the March\u00a0budget increasing it to $48.6 billion and further growth set to take it to $70 billion by 2030.\u00a0Labor also agreed with the big investments being made in frigates and\u00a0nuclear-powered submarines.<\/p>\n

The challenge for the new\u00a0government on defence, though, isn\u2019t about the headline budget figures, or the massive, long-term projects it\u2019ll have to manage. It\u2019s to use the large and growing defence budget to make Australia more secure this decade\u2014over the\u00a0next 1, 3, 5 and 8 years\u2014not from 2035 and out to 2050 as the new frigates and submarines slowly arrive.<\/p>\n

The 2020s look to be a dangerous decade for Australia and our region because of an aggressive China under Xi Jinping. And that aggression isn\u2019t just\u00a0a long way away, in places like the South China Sea and around Taiwan. It\u2019s close to home given China\u2019s growing presence in the South Pacific and the implications of the security\u00a0deal Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has made with Beijing. Unravelling that agreement will be another major challenge for the incoming minister and their counterpart in foreign affairs. It\u2019s a time to gather strength with friends and allies, as in Prime Minister Anthony Albanese\u2019s priority dash to the Quad meeting in Tokyo.<\/p>\n

The good news for the new government is that there are things to build on and accelerate\u2014like the work underway to get at least some of the guided weapons our military use produced in Australia so that\u00a0we aren\u2019t dependent on risky and vulnerable international supply chains. As we\u2019re seeing every day in the war in Ukraine, these essential military supplies are needed in numbers.<\/p>\n

Like militaries all over the world, the ADF is watching closely the lessons from Ukraine, right down to footage of model aircraft enthusiasts dropping grenades from small commercial drones and of the Moskva<\/em>, Russia\u2019s Baltic Sea flagship burning and sinking.<\/p>\n

Do the columns of wrecked and rusting hulks of Russian tanks signal the end of armoured vehicles as an effective force? Probably not. Armour was very badly handled by the Russians despite the Ukrainians being badly outnumbered. It needs to be used as part of a system including infantry, artillery and air support, which the Kremlin did not provide, but armour\u2019s vulnerabilities to cheap weapons are undeniable.<\/p>\n

The new government will need a comprehensive early briefing from the ADF on all the complex detail of the AUKUS agreement with the US and UK and plans to help Australia obtain eight nuclear-powered submarines.<\/p>\n

That will include the content and progress of the talks<\/a> the Royal Australian Navy\u2019s nuclear-powered submarine taskforce is involved in with the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure that the plan doesn\u2019t weaken the international non-proliferation regime.<\/p>\n

The navy has said it will ensure the project embraces such high safety standards that it will set a rigorous new benchmark under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or NPT.<\/p>\n

The reactors on both US and UK nuclear-powered submarines use highly enriched, or \u2018weapons grade\u2019, uranium that does not need to be replaced for the boat\u2019s 30-year life. Such fuel could be used to make nuclear bombs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Other nations, including France, use low-enriched uranium in their submarine reactors but they need to be refuelled\u00a0several times through the life of the submarine. That uranium is not suitable for bombs, but the refuelling process is a complex one that would probably require ongoing help from the provider country.<\/p>\n

The submarine enterprise is as massive as it is ambitious.<\/p>\n

It is likely to see Australia obtaining an advanced new boat, still being designed, from either the US or the UK.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, Australians will find themselves crewing US or UK submarines to gain experience and professional skills.<\/p>\n

When its AUKUS allies are satisfied that Australia can meet the highest nuclear-safeguard standards, the RAN may eventually \u2018borrow\u2019 a nuclear-powered boat from one of them.<\/p>\n

But AUKUS is about much more than submarines.<\/p>\n

As defence minister, Peter Dutton chose the big US companies, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, as industry partners for missile production. The new government must push these companies to start production in Australia by 2025, not allow them to slow-roll things over a decade. And it would be wise to bring in some faster-moving competition through companies like Norway\u2019s Kongsberg and Israeli-Australian partnership Varley Rafael, which would each get production of missiles the ADF have chosen started fast and push our American friends to also get moving quickly.<\/p>\n

The new government can push the navy to do what it should have done all along and arm the only new ships Australia is getting into the fleet before 2035, the Arafura-class offshore patrol vessels.\u00a0These warships are more relevant than ever given the Chinese navy\u2019s push into our near region.<\/p>\n

Labor can focus where it traditionally likes to in defence, on local industry. Medium and small Australian firms can provide the military with technologies from artificial intelligence capabilities, cyber systems and armed and unarmed small drones. They can get these new technologies into the hands of our military to use and adapt much faster if they aren\u2019t forced to navigate the labyrinth that is the Defence\u00a0bureaucracy and procurement system.<\/p>\n

It will take a strong prime minister and determined defence minister to break through this internal process logjam, but that can be a satisfying role for a new minister\u2014and it\u2019s one our security environment demands.\u00a0The MQ-28A Ghost Bat drone also known as the loyal wingman and the investment in large unmanned undersea vessels announced by Dutton during\u00a0the election campaign are tantalising\u00a0glimmers of what\u2019s possible.<\/p>\n

Delivering new capability to the Australian military over this decade\u2014not just in the mid-2030s\u2014will show taxpayers they are getting something for the billions going into Defence in economically challenging times. And, with Australia\u2019s powerful partners in Washington, Tokyo, Delhi and Seoul, it\u2019ll help deter Beijing from thinking conflict is a quick way to achieve its goals. The Chinese military\u00a0does\u00a0respect countervailing military power. So, how novel and fortunate for an Australian defence minister to have the prospect of starting projects and seeing\u00a0them deliver results to our military\u00a0while they are still in the job.<\/p>\n

While Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated that nothing short of a courageous armed defence can stop a violent and autocratic aggressor, war can also be an unnecessary consequence when diplomacy and armed deterrence fail.<\/p>\n

But diplomacy remains a crucial first element and a stronger and better resourced Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is a strategic imperative. The vastly experienced and capable Penny Wong will be influential in cabinet to make that happen. Tone may help, but policy substance still needs to deal with structural realities.<\/p>\n

The new government also needs to free up and encourage the ADF to play a much greater role in informing the public about the strategic threats posed by climate change with the strong possibility of competition for resources such as food and water and the likelihood of mass international people movements from areas that become inundated or otherwise uninhabitable. That\u2019s the practical, security side to the new government\u2019s climate agenda.<\/p>\n

Difficult decisions which will shape the ADF for decades need to be made soon on armoured vehicles and the future of special forces.<\/p>\n

On integrity and accountability, the new government gets the chance to deliver what the overwhelming majority of Australia\u2019s serving military personnel want\u2014accountability for any among them who are proven to have\u00a0committed unlawful killings in Afghanistan as well as changes to the command chain and the way allegations of misconduct on operations are investigated and handled in the future.<\/p>\n

A previous defence minister, Linda Reynolds, undertook to inform the Australian public, through statements to parliament, about the implementation of the Brereton inquiry\u2019s forensic investigation\u00a0and recommendations. That has not happened. Now those processes can be pursued more publicly with the full backing of the new government, both through the Office of the Special Investigator outside Defence, and through Defence\u2019s\u00a0internal disciplinary and administrative systems.<\/p>\n

This will align Defence with\u00a0steps to increase integrity and government transparency that look like being a key part of the new parliamentary program of Labor and the independents.<\/p>\n

It\u2019ll be symbolic here to have the new defence minister do what Brereton recommended and give periodic statements in parliament updating on progress with implementation and change.<\/p>\n

So, inheriting bipartisan structural policy settings and a growing defence budget is a foundation. The next three years, though, will be busy time of delivery and decision for Albanese and his national security committee colleagues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Skilled diplomacy, a powerful and achievable deterrent capability developed with urgency, and the highly trained personnel to drive a technically skilled defence force will be crucial to Australia\u2019s defence in the uncertain decades ahead. A …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":587,"featured_media":72864,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[44,3192,17,1114,279],"class_list":["post-72860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australian-defence-force","tag-anthony-albanese","tag-australia","tag-defence","tag-force-structure"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNew government can deliver what Australia needs to defend itself in a dangerous decade | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/new-government-can-deliver-what-australia-needs-to-defend-itself-in-a-dangerous-decade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New government can deliver what Australia needs to defend itself in a dangerous decade | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Skilled diplomacy, a powerful and achievable deterrent capability developed with urgency, and the highly trained personnel to drive a technically skilled defence force will be crucial to Australia\u2019s defence in the uncertain decades ahead. 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