{"id":73098,"date":"2022-06-09T11:00:16","date_gmt":"2022-06-09T01:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=73098"},"modified":"2022-06-09T10:39:34","modified_gmt":"2022-06-09T00:39:34","slug":"what-the-ukraine-war-should-teach-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-the-ukraine-war-should-teach-china\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Ukraine war should teach China"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine enters its fourth month, the endgame remains murky. But one thing is clear: Russia\u2019s military has taken a beating from Ukrainian forces that, at the start of the conflict, were thought to be no match for it. For China\u2019s People\u2019s Liberation Army, which shares many of the deficiencies that are undercutting Russia\u2019s effectiveness on the battlefield, this should be a wake-up call.<\/p>\n

One such deficiency is corruption. Of the world\u2019s 20 largest economies, Russia rates the worst<\/a> in this domain. Perhaps it shouldn\u2019t have been surprising, then, that Russia\u2019s military\u2014long considered one of the world\u2019s strongest\u2014has been severely weakened by a variety of abuses<\/a>. Judging by the number of senior generals arrested for corruption in China in the past decade, the rot inside the PLA may run just as deep.<\/p>\n

Shortly after Xi Jinping came to power in November 2012, he launched an anti-corruption drive that, by the end of 2017, had ensnared more than 100 generals<\/a>. Two former vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission, which commands the PLA, were arrested for taking bribes<\/a> in exchange for promotions<\/a>. Another commission member died by suicide<\/a> in 2017 while an investigation into his ties to the disgraced vice-chairmen was underway.<\/p>\n

One might be tempted to think that Xi\u2019s campaign purged the PLA of corruption. But that\u2019s unlikely, given that the enabling conditions\u2014including cronyism, secrecy and lack of oversight\u2014have hardly been eradicated.<\/p>\n

Beyond corruption, the PLA displays similar structural weaknesses to Russia\u2019s military, such as an obsessive focus on hardware, lack of training that simulates real combat conditions, poor logistics and a persistent failure to develop joint operational capabilities. Like the Russian military, the PLA relies on a rigid top-down command structure that makes it difficult, if not impossible, for lower-level officers and soldiers to take the initiative in combat settings.<\/p>\n

Another key weakness of the Russian and Chinese militaries is politicisation. In fact, heavily influenced by the culture of the Soviet Red Army, the PLA is even more politicised than today\u2019s Russian military.<\/p>\n

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian military escaped communist party control and abolished the system of political commissars. As a result, politicisation is now personalistic in nature and resembles typical patronage systems, in which unqualified individuals are appointed to senior positions. In peacetime, the consequences might seem limited to weakened morale. But, as Russia has learned in Ukraine, war exposes the extent of incompetence that patronage allows.<\/p>\n

This doesn\u2019t bode well for China. The PLA is under the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s full control, and its primary mission is to defend the CCP\u2019s political monopoly. The political commissar system created by Leon Trotsky when he established the Red Army is alive and well in China, with the appointment and promotion of PLA officers determined not only by their professional qualifications, but also by their perceived loyalty to the CCP. Even junior officers are politically vetted before receiving commissions. The result is a confusing dual-command structure, which could hobble professional PLA soldiers\u2019 ability to fight battles effectively, as it did to the Red Army in the early days of the Nazi invasion during World War II.<\/p>\n

A final key weakness shared by the Russian military and the PLA is their lack of combat experience. Over the past three decades, Russia\u2019s military has fought only relatively small wars, in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. This clearly did not prepare it to invade all of Ukraine, as demonstrated by its recent decision to narrow its focus and objectives to the eastern Donbas region.<\/p>\n

Here, too, China is worse off. The Chinese military hasn\u2019t fought a real battle since its disastrous border war with Vietnam in 1979. So, while it has invested massively in military modernisation since the early 1990s, the PLA\u2019s competence and capabilities in combat remain untested.<\/p>\n

If Russia has performed so poorly in Ukraine, how can the PLA\u2014whose weaknesses, including politicisation and lack of combat experience, are even more pronounced\u2014expect to win a war today, especially a large-scale conflict that draws in major powers like the United States? It doesn\u2019t help that structural reforms capable of addressing the PLA\u2019s most glaring weaknesses will be difficult, if not impossible, to implement. Depoliticising the military would entail the removal of the CCP\u2019s organisational presence and the abolition of the political commissar system, neither of which is on the cards. And gaining real combat experience in peacetime is impractical.<\/p>\n

The only feasible step China can take to bolster the PLA is to increase transparency considerably. If more media scrutiny had been allowed in Russia, the rot in its military would have been exposed\u2014and probably addressed\u2014long before it started a war that it can\u2019t win, at least not in the quick and overwhelming manner the Kremlin expected. For Xi, the lesson is that Chinese officials must shine more light on one of the country\u2019s most secretive institutions, precisely because they are unlikely to be satisfied with what they find.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine enters its fourth month, the endgame remains murky. But one thing is clear: Russia\u2019s military has taken a beating from Ukrainian forces that, at the start of the conflict, were …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":584,"featured_media":52368,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1414,163,714,239],"class_list":["post-73098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-pla","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-warfare"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat the Ukraine war should teach China | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-the-ukraine-war-should-teach-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What the Ukraine war should teach China | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine enters its fourth month, the endgame remains murky. 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