{"id":73148,"date":"2022-06-10T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-10T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=73148"},"modified":"2022-06-10T17:03:56","modified_gmt":"2022-06-10T07:03:56","slug":"shangri-la-in-singapore-face-to-face-drama-with-set-piece-moves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/shangri-la-in-singapore-face-to-face-drama-with-set-piece-moves\/","title":{"rendered":"Shangri-La in Singapore: face-to-face drama with set-piece moves"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The annual Shangri-La Dialogue is a key moment to hear how major powers see the world and each other. This one is more key than \u2018normal\u2019\u2014because the Covid-19 pandemic has meant that the dialogue was last held in 2019.<\/p>\n

The world has changed fundamentally since then as a result of Covid, China and now, of course, the return of war to Europe brought to us by Russian President Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s conference has the US Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin speaking first, on Saturday morning, with his Japanese and Australian counterparts, Nobuo Kishi and Richard Marles, each up later.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s President Volodymyr Zelensky will give a virtual address late Saturday. His presence and speech will bring Putin\u2019s horrific war right into the Singapore gathering. It\u2019ll also bring the underlying Russia\u2013China strategic partnership to people\u2019s minds, because Putin and Xi Jinping have done nothing but lean in to their strategic partnership since that war began, through actions like the joint Russian\u2013Chinese bomber mission<\/a> past Tokyo during the Quad leaders\u2019 meeting there in May.<\/p>\n

And China\u2019s defence minister, Wei Fenghe, speaks on Sunday\u2014about China\u2019s vision for regional order.<\/p>\n

I expect Marles to outline a policy direction we\u2019ve heard from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese,<\/a> from Foreign Minister Penny Wong<\/a> and from Marles himself over the campaign and since coming to government.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s about recognising how China has changed direction and behaviour under Xi, and how Beijing is making its own choices. Those choices are shaped less by close or direct interaction and negotiation with others, and more by Xi\u2019s direction and the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s internal dynamics. It recognises a more assertive China more ready to try to dictate others\u2019 choices.<\/p>\n

So, Australian policy is to shape the regional environment that we, our partners and allies and China live and operate in\u2014and to do this by deep engagement with our region and our partners. It\u2019s about taking China as we find it under Xi and not expecting much change to be driven from the outside.<\/p>\n

Marles will probably also recognise the roles of the Quad and AUKUS in Australian and regional security, taking the opportunity to commit strongly to both. On AUKUS, he\u2019ll recognise the need to have an agreed plan with Australia\u2019s partners the US and UK, and act on the advice of the taskforce that is working with them on our options.<\/p>\n

This Australian direction means he will be very much aligned with the perspectives we\u2019ll hear from Japan and the US.<\/p>\n

Austin will build on US President Joe Biden\u2019s and Secretary of State Antony Blinken\u2019s recent statements<\/a> about US strategy\u2014which is about outcompeting China by investing and working closely with partners and allies. Austin will be candid about China\u2019s rising aggression and military belligerence\u2014whether around Japan, near Taiwan, in the South China Sea or elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Austin has got plenty of recent material on this, ranging from growing Chinese intimidation against Taiwan, to the dangerous aggression Chinese fighter pilots have shown towards Canadian and Australian patrol aircraft, to the now overt pursuit by Beijing of a direct security role in South Pacific states.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll hear a more positive portrayal of China in the South Pacific from Solomon Islands Police, National Security and Correctional Services Minister Anthony Veke, who\u2019s speaking on a panel with Indian Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta and America\u2019s Indo-Pacific Commander, Admiral John Aquilino.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s Wei has been more frank than may have been helpful to Beijing in previous speeches at Shangri-La. In 2019 he infamously<\/a> talked about the People\u2019s Liberation Army\u2019s Tiananmen Square massacre ordered by then paramount CCP leader Deng Xiaoping in 1989\u2014and described it as correct policy\u2019 that he would do again if the CCP deemed it necessary to \u2018stop turbulence\u2019.<\/p>\n

His speech is likely to stick with the vision for the world and region that his leader set out in partnership with Putin<\/a> in early February. It\u2019s likely to be quite strident, along with boilerplate language about common human destiny, avoidance of Cold War mentalities, and win\u2013win outcomes.<\/p>\n

So, a set-piece drama with the broad outlines pretty clear beforehand. But a thing about a face-to-face gathering like Shangri-La is that some of the most interesting developments come out of the interaction\u2014and that makes it compelling to attend and fascinating to assess.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The annual Shangri-La Dialogue is a key moment to hear how major powers see the world and each other. This one is more key than \u2018normal\u2019\u2014because the Covid-19 pandemic has meant that the dialogue was …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":766,"featured_media":73150,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3111,2212,294,358],"class_list":["post-73148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-aukus","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-diplomacy","tag-shangri-la-dialogue"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nShangri-La in Singapore: face-to-face drama with set-piece moves | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/shangri-la-in-singapore-face-to-face-drama-with-set-piece-moves\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Shangri-La in Singapore: face-to-face drama with set-piece moves | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The annual Shangri-La Dialogue is a key moment to hear how major powers see the world and each other. 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