{"id":73285,"date":"2022-06-20T06:00:57","date_gmt":"2022-06-19T20:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=73285"},"modified":"2022-06-19T18:16:52","modified_gmt":"2022-06-19T08:16:52","slug":"myanmars-wicked-tragedy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/myanmars-wicked-tragedy\/","title":{"rendered":"Myanmar\u2019s wicked tragedy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Myanmar is both tragedy and wicked problem.<\/p>\n

For theorists, a \u2018wicked problem\u2019 is a complex dilemma with no single solution or natural end point. For Myanmar, \u2018wicked\u2019 also means evil.<\/p>\n

In both senses of wicked, Myanmar is human heartbreak.<\/p>\n

Myanmar\u2019s policy fissures go in many directions. The human crisis and the crisis of democracy crash against a disastrous military regime. The junta\u2019s furious flailing demonstrates its own lack of understanding and imagination, and its lack of feeling for its own people.<\/p>\n

ASEAN\u2019s failed response goes to another dimension of the wicked problem. \u2018ASEAN centrality\u2019 is usually a discussion of the association\u2019s capacity to shape the region, deliver peace and drive norms. Yet ASEAN hasn\u2019t been able to grab a central place in the thinking of Myanmar, one of its own members, posing questions about its relevance and utility (see ASPI\u2019s Myanmar\u2019s coup, ASEAN\u2019s crisis<\/em><\/a>).<\/p>\n

For Australia (and even more for the United States) the dilemma is how close to stand to ASEAN policy while abhorring Myanmar\u2019s regime. The judgement calls will become acute if the junta conducts its promised election in August 2023<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The wicked problem was the subject of a special session<\/a> at Singapore\u2019s Shangri-La Dialogue, convened by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.<\/p>\n

The UN special envoy on Myanmar, Noeleen Heyzer, said the country\u2019s situation had worsened during the past six months: \u2018Both sides think that they can prevail through the use of violence and their positions have hardened. There\u2019s no desire to have talks, to engage in talks about talks, to find a political way out of this crisis.\u2019<\/p>\n

Heyzer said the collapse of Myanmar\u2019s state institutions had \u2018a tragic human face of deep human suffering\u2019: half of the population lived in poverty, 7.8 million children were out of school, and the food sector had collapsed as agriculture was devastated. In the first two weeks of May, 6,000 homes in the central region had been burned.<\/p>\n

Malaysia\u2019s Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said the crisis was unprecedented in Myanmar\u2019s modern history, descending rapidly into civil war. He described the regime as a \u2018junta\u2019 using \u2018violence and brutality\u2019. Yet he said ASEAN had not considered expelling Myanmar from the association.<\/p>\n

Saifuddin conceded problems with ASEAN\u2019s stalled approach<\/a>, built on the \u2018five-point consensus\u2019<\/a> that ASEAN leaders agreed with Myanmar\u2019s Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in April 2021.<\/p>\n

\u2018We have to look for new and creative ways that are inclusive and comprehensive,\u2019 Saifuddin said. \u2018We must go back to the drawing board to develop a more detailed road map.\u2019<\/p>\n

A new map, he said, would set out the time frame (\u2018When do we get certain things done?\u2019) and the stakeholders (\u2018Whom do we meet with?\u2019).<\/p>\n

Saifuddin said those at the table must include ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, former president Win Myint, and representatives from Myanmar\u2019s shadow government, the National Unity Government.<\/p>\n

Thailand\u2019s special representative on Myanmar, Pornpimol Kanchanalak, said the aim must be a path forward, and that meant dealing with Myanmar\u2019s military: \u2018We cannot undo February 1, 2021 [the date of the coup]. We must not get stuck in cancel rhetoric, condemnation, sanction, ostracisation; punitive measures have reached diminishing return.\u2019<\/p>\n

She said that for the sake of peace, the promise of elections in 2023 must be taken at face value.<\/p>\n

UN envoy Heyzer cautioned against that face-value approach:<\/p>\n

As far as the people are concerned, unless an election is inclusive and there is no fear in the expression of their political will, there\u2019s not going to be the legitimacy that will allow the government to go back to civilian rule. In other words, it will be the trigger for further violence.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

US State Department counsellor Derek Chollet was scathing about the election promised by the junta:<\/p>\n

We think that prospect is a farce. We don\u2019t believe that we should endorse such elections. We don\u2019t see how they can have any chance of being free and fair, given that the regime has imprisoned or intimidated nearly all credible political contenders. In fact, it\u2019s threatening that it might execute some in the coming days.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The US called for increased pressure on a weak regime that was completely unwilling to negotiate, Chollet said:<\/p>\n

It\u2019s attempting to consolidate power and really just ramp up its assault. Yet beneath this horrific brutality we see a very insecure and isolated regime, one that is facing a growing and resilient popular resistance movement. And while the military claims that it can control the country, in reality political\u2013economic control remains contested and the military regime has shown that it is fundamentally incapable of creating stability. And we\u2019re seeing increasing fissures within the military itself.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The hardening of positions in Myanmar caused UN envoy Heyzer to lament the \u2018missing middle\u2019 in the country\u2019s politics.<\/p>\n

See that missing middle as the place where the military no longer stands. One of those attending the Shangri-La session remarked that Myanmar\u2019s military had gone from revered institution to reviled institution.<\/p>\n

The military still sees itself as the glue that holds Myanmar together. But that history is tarnished by brutality. The junta has caused Myanmar to splinter, not cohere. This wicked problem is defined by its wickedness.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myanmar is both tragedy and wicked problem. For theorists, a \u2018wicked problem\u2019 is a complex dilemma with no single solution or natural end point. For Myanmar, \u2018wicked\u2019 also means evil. In both senses of wicked, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":73293,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[189,212,358],"class_list":["post-73285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asean","tag-myanmar","tag-shangri-la-dialogue"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMyanmar\u2019s wicked tragedy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/myanmars-wicked-tragedy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Myanmar\u2019s wicked tragedy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Myanmar is both tragedy and wicked problem. 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