{"id":73531,"date":"2022-07-01T06:00:23","date_gmt":"2022-06-30T20:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=73531"},"modified":"2022-06-30T16:36:21","modified_gmt":"2022-06-30T06:36:21","slug":"by-accident-or-design-or-designed-accident-chinas-unsafe-air-intercepts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/by-accident-or-design-or-designed-accident-chinas-unsafe-air-intercepts\/","title":{"rendered":"By accident or design\u2014or designed accident? China\u2019s unsafe air intercepts"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

On 26 May a J-16 fighter aircraft from the Peoples Liberational Army Air Force conducted an \u2018unsafe\u2019 interception of an Australian P-8A Poseidon routine surveillance flight above international waters. The Chinese fighter pulled alongside releasing flares, then cut in front of the Royal Australian Air Force aircraft and released \u2018chaff\u2019\u2014aluminium fragments to decoy incoming missiles. Chaff is familiar to audiences for its frequent appearance in the movie Top Gun: Maverick<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Only hours after the encounter, a second RAAF aircraft returned to patrol<\/a> the area indicating that Australian forces had not been deterred from continuing their operations. This flight was not contested.<\/p>\n

Between 26 April and 26 May, a Royal Canadian Air Force\u00a0CP-140 Aurora\u00a0patrol aircraft was similarly dangerously intercepted by Chinese aircraft in violation of air-safety norms, while flying in international airspace near the Korean peninsula as part of UN-sanctioned Operation NEON<\/a>.<\/p>\n

These air intercepts, and previous incidents, including the use of a laser by a Chinese vessel to dazzle the crew of another RAAF P-8<\/a> over the Arafura Sea in February, have been condemned by Australian leaders as aggressive acts<\/a>. Harassment of foreign aircraft and vessels has become commonplace and appears to be increasing. This strongly suggests that rather than being regrettable but isolated \u2018accidents\u2019, a more deliberate \u2018design\u2019 can be discerned behind Chinese actions.<\/p>\n

A closer look at the recent Australian case may reveal why this intimidation is occurring.<\/p>\n

At the tactical level, it has been argued by some that the Australian case could be the work of a \u2018rogue pilot<\/a>\u2019\u2014perhaps overzealous in protecting China\u2019s declared sphere of influence from foreign incursions. This is possible, but it would then appear that the Chinese armed forces have quite a few \u2018rogue operators\u2019, something unlikely to be tolerated in a rigid authoritarian system like China\u2019s, or a military presumably dedicated to upholding professional standards. At any rate, the pilot\u2019s deliberate discharge of chaff cannot be considered an \u2018accident\u2019 in and of itself, even if it was not explicitly ordered by his\/her commander.<\/p>\n

At the operational level, perhaps a permissible environment has been approved for pilots engaged in such intercepts that sanctions such risky behaviours\u2014in this ethos: \u2018accidents will happen\u2019 and will not attract punishment for the perpetrator. Are they now part of PLAAF standard operating procedures and rules of engagement? Certainly a pattern appears to be emerging, rather than a series of unlikely coincidences.<\/p>\n

At the strategic level, if a permissible environment has been approved, that would suggest it forms part of a coordinated strategy across service branches and in different subregions to use hybrid means of warfare. This looks more credible when one recalls Chinese strategists\u2019 interest in such below-kinetic-threshold activities, informed by Sun Tzu\u2019s famous maxim appertaining to the art of fighting, without fighting (to paraphrase). By this stage, deliberately \u2018designing accidents\u2019 like this, looks more convincing.<\/p>\n

Last, at the political level, while the Chinese military has shown a measure of independence from policymakers in the past, the tight rein of the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping may suggest that such a strategy\u2014the sanction of operational procedures that permit such tactics\u2014implies that this behaviour is approved at the very top<\/a>. This assumption\u2014reasonable to the extent that the CCP\u2019s authoritarian system has exceptionally tight control of events, most especially in matters concerning the South China Sea\u2014necessarily ascribes a high level of coordination and efficiency within the system (a misperception applied to the Soviet Union in the past). Given that the communist system remains a \u2018black box\u2019 to outsiders, we have no way of knowing for certain. Alternatively, the fact that the dangerous intercept occurred when Chinese diplomats were pressing for a \u2018reset\u2019 in bilateral relations with Australia could be read as \u2018the right hand doesn\u2019t know what the left hand is doing\u2019.<\/p>\n

For Beijing, the beauty of such seemingly contradictory activities, military provocation combined with diplomatic denial and putative olive branches, might suggest more than a tactical \u2018accident\u2019 by a rogue pilot, but rather a \u2018designed accident\u2019. That would be plausibly (or implausibly) deniable but nevertheless discombobulating for the recipient of such mixed messages. Rather surreally, Chinese officials<\/a> have both retorted that \u2018the measures taken by the Chinese military were professional, safe, reasonable and legal\u2019 and then accused Australia of \u2018dangerous and provocative acts\u2019.<\/p>\n

If such nominal \u2018accidents\u2019 are part of a carefully controlled posture sanctioned all the way to the top of the hierarchy\u2014either actively approved or simply passively tolerated\u2014what\u2019s the purpose?<\/p>\n

Destabilisation of the target. Uncertainty is achieved by the appearance of various theories, none of which can be conclusively verified as true and therefore dealt with appropriately and categorically by policymakers. Add to this a heavy dose of disinformation to further muddy the waters and create doubts and this leads to a degree of policy paralysis for the respondent.<\/p>\n

It places the onus the target country to escalate in response and\/or risk further incidents by continuing with such patrols, and Beijing clearly feels confident that this would be unpalatable or infeasible, at least for countries like Australia (and Canada). In China\u2019s view, they can be counted upon to blink first in a game of brinksmanship, just as intended. The clearance of a second flight hours after the chaff incident indicates that Australia may not be playing the game as scripted.<\/p>\n

There may be pitfalls in the strategy of \u2018designed accidents\u2019 in the sense that they are inherently dangerous and may lead to real<\/em> rather than theatrical<\/em> incidents. The Australian crew of the P-8, upon witnessing the activation of a (defensive) weapon system by the Chinese interceptor, may have responded to a \u2018combat\u2019 situation (the P-8 is not suitably armed to respond, but in other cases this may not be the case). Equally worrisome, due to the ingestion of the chaff fragments into its engines, the P-8 could have been downed by the encounter leading to casualties and\/or an ensuing diplomatic crisis (like the Hainan Incident<\/a> in 2001 in which a US EP-3 surveillance plane was brought down after an accident involving a PLAAF J-8 interceptor, whose pilot was killed).<\/p>\n

Ultimately, how we view this incident\u2014whether accident or accident by design\u2014will lead us to different conclusions ranging from: \u2018some Chinese pilots are reckless mavericks\u2019 through \u2018the Chinese military is adopting a riskier posture on purpose\u2019, to \u2018the PLA high command, with the approval of party decision-makers, has crafted a deliberate strategy that extends to the minutiae of tactical operations\u2019.<\/p>\n

Whatever the accidental, deliberate or unintended effects of such activities by Chinese armed forces, tensions will be raised accordingly. That will confirm the worst fears of strategic planners in Canberra, Ottawa and elsewhere, and drive more robust (and probably combined) responses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 26 May a J-16 fighter aircraft from the Peoples Liberational Army Air Force conducted an \u2018unsafe\u2019 interception of an Australian P-8A Poseidon routine surveillance flight above international waters. The Chinese fighter pulled alongside releasing …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1049,"featured_media":73534,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[225,2212,272,1383,52,1414],"class_list":["post-73531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-air-power","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-canada","tag-ccp","tag-china","tag-pla"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBy accident or design\u2014or designed accident? 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