{"id":74079,"date":"2022-07-25T14:30:18","date_gmt":"2022-07-25T04:30:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=74079"},"modified":"2022-07-25T14:31:42","modified_gmt":"2022-07-25T04:31:42","slug":"what-to-expect-from-widodos-visits-to-china-japan-and-south-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-to-expect-from-widodos-visits-to-china-japan-and-south-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"What to expect from Widodo\u2019s visits to China, Japan and South Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"
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When Indonesian President Joko Widodo visits his country\u2019s three major North Asian economic partners this week, bilateral trade and investment, along with the upcoming G20 leaders\u2019 summit in Bali, are set to head his list of priorities. But whether he likes it or not, they are unlikely to be the only topics on the minds of his principal interlocutors, especially China\u2019s President Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n

Widodo\u2019s first stop (26 July) is Beijing, where he will meet both Xi and Premier Li Keqiang. Generally, the leaders will have a good story to highlight during what will be Widodo\u2019s fifth visit to China. Despite an array of international and domestic complications, the value of bilateral trade totalled US$110 billion last year, confirming China\u2019s status as Indonesia\u2019s largest trading partner. Imports from China amounted to five times the value<\/a> of US exports to Indonesia. During the January\u2013April period this year, Indonesia enjoyed a trade surplus of just over US$1 billion arising from the more than US$44 billion in trade.<\/p>\n

China has also consolidated its position in the top three foreign investors in Indonesia (after Singapore and Hong Kong), contributing to a 39.7% year-on-year jump in foreign direct investment in Indonesia\u2019s economy during the second quarter\u2014the biggest rise in a decade. In the first six months of 2022, China accounted for US$1.7 billion of the total of US$15.65 billion in foreign direct investment into Indonesia.<\/p>\n

Most of that investment flowed into key sectors in the Indonesian economy, including mining and the metals industry, transportation, telecommunications and utilities. China has been especially active in many of these, notably the expanding smelting industry, in which Chinese companies are becoming dominant actors.<\/p>\n

A key deliverable (as foreshadowed<\/a> by Indonesia\u2019s all-powerful coordinating minister for maritime affairs and investment, Luhut Pandjaitan) is likely to be the renewal of a 2017 memorandum of understanding underpinning Indonesia\u2019s participation in China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative, which is scheduled to end this month.<\/p>\n

But not everything in the economic relationship is rosy. The troubled Jakarta\u2013Bandung high-speed rail project is bound to be a key part of the conversation. A totem of Indonesia\u2019s development cooperation with China (if not an officially acknowledged BRI project), it is being undertaken by a consortium of Indonesian state-owned enterprises and Chinese companies. Under the original arrangement, the China Development Bank was to finance 75% of the project<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But it has been bedevilled by construction problems that have resulted in lengthy delays and a multibillion-dollar cost blowout<\/a> necessitating an unanticipated, controversial injection of government funding from a reluctant administration. This reportedly prompted Indonesia last year<\/a> to press China to help defray the rising costs.<\/p>\n

Indonesian authorities continue to insist that the project will be completed in time for a trial run<\/a> to coincide with the November G20 meeting. That would serve the interests of both leaders, showcasing Indonesia\u2019s development achievements and China\u2019s claims as a beneficent and technologically impressive partner. But experience to date and the Indonesian consortium members\u2019 financial problems offer ample grounds for doubt that the trial train will run on time. To help ensure it does, therefore, Widodo\u2019s cap may again be in his hand as it reaches out to shake Xi\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Widodo will also doubtless be expecting Beijing\u2019s unbridled support for Indonesia\u2019s G20 presidency and its agenda of post-Covid-19 global economic recovery and resilience. A specific initiative for which Widodo may be seeking Xi\u2019s formal backing is the establishment of a financial intermediary fund<\/a> to aid in \u2018health management under the management of the World Bank\u2019, as Indonesia\u2019s finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, has outlined. He\u2019s likely to get it, as well as a ringing endorsement for his goal of keeping the G20 as focused on Indonesia\u2019s economic cooperation agenda as the war in Ukraine and the reaction of G7 countries to it will allow.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just as certain that Xi will want a few things in return. One may well be some kind of endorsement of China\u2019s condemnation of AUKUS, specifically in terms of Australia\u2019s planned acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. Jakarta\u2019s concerns about this issue haven\u2019t been so forcefully expressed as Beijing\u2019s strident remarks<\/a>, and Widodo is likely to be careful not to align Indonesia too overtly with whatever actions China might be planning to take against Australia in the context of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, including at next month\u2019s 10th NPT Review Conference. But Beijing would know that Jakarta\u2019s scepticism towards the submarine program almost certainly persists regardless of the Albanese government\u2019s efforts to reassure its Indonesian counterpart and will likely be aiming to stoke it.<\/p>\n

From an Australian perspective, then, the visit underscores the importance of Canberra\u2019s cooperation with its AUKUS partners and the International Atomic Energy Agency towards an answer to the NPT questions posed by AUKUS that will prove acceptable to Indonesia and other sceptics in the region. Hopefully, as he departs from Beijing, Widodo might also reflect on the fact that the same person urging him to condemn Australia\u2019s ambitions for nuclear-propelled\u2014not nuclear-armed\u2014boats is concurrently overseeing the growth of China\u2019s nuclear arsenal contrary to its obligations under the NPT to disarm\u2014an obligation that Indonesia has consistently demanded that nuclear-weapon states meet.<\/p>\n

The Tokyo (27 July) and Seoul (28 July) legs of Widodo\u2019s trip are set to be no less heavily centred on economic matters, and especially on spruiking for more foreign direct investment. Widodo is scheduled to hold meetings with business communities in both capitals as well as with his counterparts, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. Both countries sit among the top six investors in Indonesia, though it won\u2019t have escaped Widodo\u2019s attention that Japan, hitherto among the top two or three providers of foreign direct investment to Indonesia, has fallen to sixth spot in 2022, below the Netherlands and South Korea.<\/p>\n

Defence cooperation, however, may well also be an item on the leaders\u2019 meetings in both capitals. Seoul in particular will be interested in where Indonesia is heading on its defence procurement plans in light of the two countries\u2019 cooperation on the KFX fighter program<\/a> and Jakarta\u2019s apparent deal to procure 42 Rafale fighters from France<\/a>. It will be especially interested to glean whether Indonesia remains committed to the program and, post-Covid, is ready and able to meet its financial commitments under it.<\/p>\n

Both Japan and Korea have also figured in Indonesia\u2019s ambitions to enhance its naval and maritime domain awareness capabilities. Seoul has already provided<\/a> three new submarines (one of which was assembled in Surabaya) and, earlier this year, the first of several second-hand corvettes that Jakarta hopes to secure.<\/p>\n

Indonesia, however, has in the past given both nations reason to question its reliability as a defence partner. Widodo may well have his work cut out when it comes to shifting any such perception.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When Indonesian President Joko Widodo visits his country\u2019s three major North Asian economic partners this week, bilateral trade and investment, along with the upcoming G20 leaders\u2019 summit in Bali, are set to head his list …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1241,"featured_media":74081,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1920,52,8,135,377,931,211],"class_list":["post-74079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-belt-and-road-initiative","tag-china","tag-indonesia","tag-japan","tag-joko-widodo","tag-jokowi","tag-south-korea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat to expect from Widodo\u2019s visits to China, Japan and South Korea | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-to-expect-from-widodos-visits-to-china-japan-and-south-korea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What to expect from Widodo\u2019s visits to China, Japan and South Korea | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When Indonesian President Joko Widodo visits his country\u2019s three major North Asian economic partners this week, bilateral trade and investment, along with the upcoming G20 leaders\u2019 summit in Bali, are set to head his list ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-to-expect-from-widodos-visits-to-china-japan-and-south-korea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-07-25T04:30:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-07-25T04:31:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/GettyImages-458944814.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"703\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Engel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Engel\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-to-expect-from-widodos-visits-to-china-japan-and-south-korea\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/GettyImages-458944814.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/GettyImages-458944814.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":703,\"caption\":\"Indonesia's President Joko Widodo (L) and his wife Iriana (2nd L) disembark from their airplane upon arrival for the G20 Summit in Brisbane on November 14, 2014. 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