{"id":74389,"date":"2022-08-09T15:02:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-09T05:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=74389"},"modified":"2022-08-09T15:10:24","modified_gmt":"2022-08-09T05:10:24","slug":"taiwan-shows-a-tango-of-engagement-and-deterrence-against-isolation-and-coercion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/taiwan-shows-a-tango-of-engagement-and-deterrence-against-isolation-and-coercion\/","title":{"rendered":"Taiwan shows a tango of engagement and deterrence against isolation and coercion"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Like his strategic partner Vladimir Putin in his horrific war in Ukraine, Xi Jinping\u2019s violently aggressive actions in the past few days against Taiwan\u2014and Japan\u2014have revealed how he wants to act in the world.<\/p>\n

These acts are what diplomats and governments have called \u2018disproportionate and destabilising\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Despite the strident efforts of China\u2019s wolf-warrior diplomats, it\u2019s plain hard for Beijing to portray itself as the victim here. Victims are usually not the ones launching ballistic missiles when others aren\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The military violence is far from a reasonable response to the visit to Taiwan of an 82-year-old American politician called \u00a0Nancy Pelosi.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s ambassador to Canberra, Xiao Qian, did his best to follow the instructions from Xi, repeating foreign ministry lines<\/a>. \u2018The actions taken by Chinese government to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity and curb the separatist activities are legitimate and justified. Instead of expressing sympathy and support to the victim, the Australian side has condemned the victim along with the perpetrators.\u2019<\/p>\n

But in the real world, Chinese military aggression shows us that Beijing is intent on changing the peaceful status quo across the Taiwan Strait\u2014something that is a flat contradiction to China\u2019s stated policy of wanting peace<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Chinese military planes and ships closing large areas of the air and maritime space around Taiwan and the People\u2019s Liberation Army firing ballistic missiles over the heads of 23 million Taiwanese people and into Japan\u2019s exclusive economic zone are a physical demonstration of China\u2019s intent. These actions make its words about peace and stability empty.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s surprising that no one in Beijing or in the PLA higher command seemed to consider the effect on Japanese policy and public opinion that\u2019s flowing from the disastrous decision to launch ballistic missiles<\/a> into Japan\u2019s EEZ. If China had wanted to really energise Tokyo\u2019s efforts to strengthen Japan\u2019s military power and to think through the close connection between Taiwan\u2019s security and its own, these missile launches would have been the best way of achieving that.<\/p>\n

Xi went beyond even the military violence, adding other overreactions like ending climate talks and military contact<\/a> with the US, cancelling a meeting between the Chinese and \u00a0Japanese foreign minister<\/a>s and threatening the EU<\/a> if members of the European parliament visit Taiwan.<\/p>\n

This lack of control from the Chinese also shows us something important about what happens next in nations\u2019 relationships with Taiwan.<\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s violent overreaction to a political visit demonstrates how determined Beijing is to isolate Taiwan from the rest of the world. That is probably the biggest implication to draw from the past few weeks.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s primary goal with all the heat, light and aggression is to raise the costs of future engagement with Taiwan by all politicians from every democratic country and every government other than its own.<\/p>\n

Beijing wants us all to self-censor our engagement with Taiwan to avoid more of these disproportionate reactions. That\u2019s so important because Xi and his military want to have a free hand to act against Taiwan and its people at a time of his choosing.<\/p>\n

So, if the US, the EU<\/a> and its members, Japan, the UK, Australia and even ASEAN members want actual peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, one of the primary ways of getting that is continued\u2014and increased\u2014political and economic engagement with the Taiwanese government, people and economy. That raises the costs to Xi of ordering an attack on Taiwan and it also provides political support for the Taiwanese government and people.<\/p>\n

This engagement will show Xi something he already fears is true: using force against Taiwan is against the interests of many governments and peoples. It is not what he would like it to be\u2014an internal matter for the Chinese Communist Party to determine.<\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s direction of violence against Taiwan and Japan in the past few days has driven some interesting responses from different parts of the world. The G7<\/a> grouping\u2014made up of Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, the US, the EU and the UK\u2014clearly identified Beijing as the source of destabilising aggression around Taiwan and called on China to de-escalate its military actions.<\/p>\n

The US<\/a>, Japan<\/a> and Australia<\/a> all issued measured, calm statements separately and as a group<\/a> that also plainly identified China\u2019s aggression as destabilising and disproportionate.<\/p>\n

Even a reluctant ASEAN put out a quietly worded statement<\/a> that disagreed with Beijing\u2019s core propaganda around its one-China principle, stating, \u2018We reiterate ASEAN Members States\u2019 support for their respective One-China Policy.\u2019 Decoding this diplomatic note, the reference to \u2018their respective One-China policy\u2019 was ASEAN quietly but firmly dissenting from Beijing\u2019s line that everyone has accepted its particular definition of \u2018one China\u2019\u2014which is that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory governed by Beijing.<\/p>\n

Like Australia, and many other nations, ASEAN states simply do not and have not signed up to China\u2019s view of the world on this critical issue.<\/p>\n

Australia, like many, maintains the same policy that Prime Minister Gough Whitlam<\/a> put in place back in 1972 when China and Australia established diplomatic relations: \u2018The Australian Government recognises the Government of the People\u2019s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, [and] acknowledges the position of the Chinese Government that Taiwan is a province of the People\u2019s Republic of China.\u2019<\/p>\n

Critically, Australia acknowledged it is the PRC government\u2019s view that it has jurisdiction over Taiwan\u2014but, beyond acknowledging it, we have never agreed with that view. We do, however, support peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and reject anyone acting unilaterally to change the status of Taiwan by force.<\/p>\n

And, stripping back all the words and focusing on who has done what to whom around Taiwan, it\u2019s the Chinese military that is acting unilaterally in an attempt to change the status quo. This is longstanding policy that predates all the drama about Pelosi and will continue long after this event, because it\u2019s about Chinese strategic ambition, not a reaction to a US politician.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, having stoked nationalist fervour and outrage<\/a> in the lead-up to the visit, China\u2019s propagandists have had a hard time convincing these strident, angry nationalists that their government\u2019s actions were at all meaningful. It\u2019s a demonstration that even a deeply controlling, technologically enabled autocracy like China\u2019s can have trouble responding to its own citizens and may even be forced to act internationally simply because of the domestic energies it has channelled and cultivated. While this often violently expressed nationalism is a direct result of successful propaganda in China\u2019s education system and state media, it is adding to the multiplying domestic pressures and challenges Xi is facing.<\/p>\n

Where to from here for Australian policy on Taiwan and for bilateral relations with China? The path seems clearer now than it was when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese\u2019s government came to power in May.<\/p>\n

On Taiwan and regional security, Australian efforts with allies and partners to raise the costs to Beijing of conflict must intensify.<\/p>\n

The defence strategic review<\/a> ordered by Defence Minister Richard Marles has an obvious and key contribution to make as it finds ways to urgently increase Australia\u2019s military power\u2014a direct contribution to deterrence of conflict in our region.<\/p>\n

But this is as much a political and diplomatic issue as a military one, which the government seems to know well. Understanding Beijing\u2019s goal of isolating Taiwan as a precondition for it to then use force to \u2018unify\u2019 Taiwan and its people with the mainland makes Australian political and economic engagement with Taiwan more important.<\/p>\n

By deepening political and economic engagement with Taiwan, Australia will be working in concert with partners and allies across the Indo-Pacific and in Europe. One example is Japan, with the week\u2019s events only accelerating an already deepening strategic partnership with Australia.<\/p>\n

Australia and other partners can also work to have Taiwan included in more international organisations and forums, engage in security discussions with Taiwanese officials, and work with Taiwan on strengthening cybersecurity and countering coercion and disinformation activities.<\/p>\n

All this is entirely possible within the one-China policy Australia adopted in 1972. It\u2019s entirely impossible within the one-China policy Beijing is working so hard to tell us we have.<\/p>\n

A key part of engagement with Taiwan that Beijing will pretend not to understand is for it to happen just like democracies work internally\u2014in a messy and organic way that allows diverse people and views to express their opinions and act without government direction. So, political visits to Taiwan must not just increase, but be communicated to be what they are: the choices of individuals living in freedom in democracies\u2014and not subject to veto by presidents or prime ministers.<\/p>\n

This contrasts with what Xi and Putin told us they wanted in their joint statement<\/a> back in February: a world where these two leaders dictate the choices of other nations by force if necessary and where other governments self-censor themselves and their populations for fear of the consequences from Beijing and Moscow. This goes to the heart of the real competition with Xi and Putin, which is about how our societies and the world work.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s anxiety about this kind of policy direction from governments with connections to Taiwan is already obvious. The future will be a tense one because Chinese strategists and military planners have an object lesson in what this kind of unity can do when they look at the political and military support Ukraine is receiving to fight the war Putin\u2019s miscalculation has inflicted on Europe.<\/p>\n

For those who see tension as inherently bad, the alternative to managed tension with Beijing over Taiwan is a future in which we all watch the type of horrific killing and destruction we are seeing in Ukraine occurring in Taiwan as China\u2019s military attempts to conquer 23 million people living in freedom in the vibrant democracy that is Taiwan.<\/p>\n

As for Australia\u2019s relations with Beijing, the false dawn<\/a> that the Chinese ambassador dangled before the new Australian government has already ended. That\u2019s because China is now far less a bilateral relationship for Australia than an increasingly obvious common strategic challenge for every nation affected by Beijing\u2019s use of power. And the strategic partnership between Putin and Xi joins Europe\u2019s security with the security of our own region in new and direct ways.<\/p>\n

Our policy must be informed by the knowledge of this common challenge and the unity and power that it brings to common efforts between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. That\u2019s just as important to communicate to the Australian public as it is as a foundation for policy and action.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Like his strategic partner Vladimir Putin in his horrific war in Ukraine, Xi Jinping\u2019s violently aggressive actions in the past few days against Taiwan\u2014and Japan\u2014have revealed how he wants to act in the world. These …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":766,"featured_media":74395,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1383,52,392,2400],"class_list":["post-74389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-ccp","tag-china","tag-taiwan","tag-taiwan-strait"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTaiwan shows a tango of engagement and deterrence against isolation and coercion | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/taiwan-shows-a-tango-of-engagement-and-deterrence-against-isolation-and-coercion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Taiwan shows a tango of engagement and deterrence against isolation and coercion | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Like his strategic partner Vladimir Putin in his horrific war in Ukraine, Xi Jinping\u2019s violently aggressive actions in the past few days against Taiwan\u2014and Japan\u2014have revealed how he wants to act in the world. 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