{"id":74989,"date":"2022-09-07T06:01:03","date_gmt":"2022-09-06T20:01:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=74989"},"modified":"2022-09-06T18:55:45","modified_gmt":"2022-09-06T08:55:45","slug":"the-most-dangerous-days-of-russias-war-in-ukraine-lie-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-most-dangerous-days-of-russias-war-in-ukraine-lie-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"The most dangerous days of Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine lie ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Whether it wins or loses its war on Ukraine, Russia is likely to become more dangerous and unpredictable, and Australia needs to prepare better to deter an increased threat of nuclear conflict.<\/p>\n

That grim conclusion is contained in a report by a top Australian analyst of Soviet and Russian affairs, Paul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, who writes that the risk of nuclear conflict is now higher than at any time since the Cold War.<\/p>\n

He warns that the Pine Gap intelligence-gathering base near Alice Springs in the Northern Territory could become a priority nuclear target and says Australia should begin serious discussions with the United States about the status, purpose and credibility of extended nuclear deterrence in this much more worrying strategic environment.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine is at an extremely dangerous moment for global security because Europe\u2019s security order is being fundamentally challenged, Dibb says in the report, The geopolitical implications of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/em><\/a>, released today by ASPI.<\/p>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has triggered the worst international crisis in decades and there\u2019s a real risk of escalation into a major war involving Russia and the US, he says. \u2018The ugliest days of this war are in front of us, not behind us.\u2019<\/p>\n

In both the Cold War and more recently, Russian authorities have made it clear that Pine Gap is a priority target. Australia needs to understand what the implications of that are for Alice Springs, a town of 32,000 people just 18 kilometres from the base. It has long been supposed that major Australian cities\u2014such as Sydney and Melbourne\u2014wouldn\u2019t be targeted, Dibb says.<\/p>\n

He says the invasion has brought the spectre of a new cold war but also the prospect of a wider general war in Europe erupting, while an increasingly authoritarian China is working with its strategic partner in Moscow to remake the international order. \u2018This deeply disturbing picture is made all the worse by Putin\u2019s now frequent references to the potential use of nuclear weapons,\u2019 he says.<\/p>\n

\u2018We need to plan on the basis that Pine Gap continues to be a nuclear target, and not only for Russia. If China attacks Taiwan, Pine Gap is likely to be heavily involved. We need to remember that Pine Gap is a fundamentally important element in US war fighting and deterrence of conflict.\u2019<\/p>\n

The most dangerous scenario for America would be a grand coalition of China and Russia united by complementary grievances. Washington could for the first time face the threat of a two-front contingency of nuclear war.<\/p>\n

\u2018We need to focus on the friendship between the authoritarian leaders of those two countries, their mutual disdain for what they see as a rapidly declining West, and their shared sense of historical grievances,\u2019 Dibb says.<\/p>\n

\u2018The conjoining of the strategic ambitions of Beijing and Moscow highlights the differences in the current global competition for power with the West and increases the potential for miscalculation and conflict.\u2019<\/p>\n

Whatever the outcome in Ukraine, Dibb says, \u2018Russia will continue to exist as a geopolitical entity unless it\u2019s totally destroyed by an all-out nuclear war.\u2019<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s attack on Ukraine demonstrated that Putin intends to re-establish Russia as a major power at almost any price, says Dibb. He notes that as the Soviet Union disintegrated, Ukraine was effectively the world\u2019s third-largest nuclear weapons power after Russia and the US. Its nuclear weapons were destroyed by agreement in 1994.<\/p>\n

Under Russia\u2019s \u2018escalate to de-escalate\u2019 strategy, it could use relatively small tactical nuclear weapons if it faced an overwhelming threat from a superior conventional military force that threatened the existence of the state. And Dibb says it\u2019s of more concern that Putin might do so either in Ukraine or against NATO allies supplying Ukraine\u2019s armed forces with conventional weapons. Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon for its demonstration effect in Ukraine or to show that he\u2019s had enough of NATO\u2019s interference. Much of the munitions NATO supplies to Ukraine pass through Poland.<\/p>\n

\u2018My view is that there\u2019s little doubt that Putin is the sort of person who won\u2019t resile from the use of nuclear weapons, particularly if it looks as though he\u2019s losing this war,\u2019 says Dibb. \u2018But he must surely realise that there\u2019s no such thing as the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons in isolation from their escalation to a full-scale strategic nuclear war.\u2019 Washington needs to make that much plainer to Putin and his advisers.<\/p>\n

\u2018Once we enter the slippery slope of even limited nuclear exchanges, the end result will be escalation to mutual annihilation\u2014something about which both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping may need reminding.\u2019 Unlike in the Cold War, Russia and the US no longer enjoy the extensive confidence-building measures such as nuclear arms control agreements, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty.<\/p>\n

The habit of talking to each other has largely disappeared, which can only add to the risks of nuclear miscalculation, says Dibb.<\/p>\n

A severely weakened, isolated and smaller Russia might then become more\u2014not less\u2014dangerous for the world. If the war in Ukraine extends to a direct conflict with NATO, all nuclear bets will be off, Dibb says.<\/p>\n

European members of NATO, such as Poland, might seek additional protection by stationing US nuclear weapons on their territory.<\/p>\n

Dibb says Australia should continue to help Ukraine as much as possible with further supplies of military equipment, but he stresses that there\u2019s \u2018little compelling reason\u2019 for the Australian Defence Force to structure its forces for \u2018high-intensity land warfare operations in Europe against Russia\u2019.<\/p>\n

NATO and Australia have recognised China as a major strategic challenge and that\u2019s now combined with the threat from the de facto alliance of Russia and China. So, Dibb says, Australia and NATO should more closely share strategic analysis.<\/p>\n

Australia needs to put much more effort into examining Russia\u2019s military intentions in the Indo-Pacific and replace skills that were downgraded at the end of the Cold War, Dibb says. \u2018Today, in the Australian intelligence community, there\u2019s little expertise on Russia (for example, the Office of National Intelligence has only one officer dedicated to analysing Russia).\u2019 A review into how Australia can repair this serious policy and intelligence gap should include what roles universities can play in training relevant academic and policy expertise about Russia. Australia also needs to strengthen intelligence and policy engagement with European countries that maintain high-quality analytical assessment capabilities about Russia, he says.<\/p>\n

Australia also needs to be much better informed about the scale and depth of the relationship between China and Russia and how they aim to change the balance of power in the region, including their regular joint military exercises in the region and Russia\u2019s supply of advanced weapons to China that may be used against us. Russia\u2019s exports of military equipment to India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and, to a lesser extent, Fiji need closer scrutiny and analysis.<\/p>\n

Dibb doesn\u2019t believe that the Ukraine war is likely to be stopped by a coup among Russia\u2019s leaders to topple Putin. Unlike in the former Soviet Union, there\u2019s no politburo in the Kremlin now to organise a challenge among the leadership, he says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Whether it wins or loses its war on Ukraine, Russia is likely to become more dangerous and unpredictable, and Australia needs to prepare better to deter an increased threat of nuclear conflict. That grim conclusion …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":587,"featured_media":74993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[600,163,714,744],"class_list":["post-74989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-nuclear-war","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe most dangerous days of Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine lie ahead | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-most-dangerous-days-of-russias-war-in-ukraine-lie-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The most dangerous days of Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine lie ahead | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Whether it wins or loses its war on Ukraine, Russia is likely to become more dangerous and unpredictable, and Australia needs to prepare better to deter an increased threat of nuclear conflict. 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