{"id":75747,"date":"2022-10-13T11:00:23","date_gmt":"2022-10-13T00:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=75747"},"modified":"2022-10-13T11:00:18","modified_gmt":"2022-10-13T00:00:18","slug":"italys-new-government-wont-be-fascist-but-it-will-face-major-challenges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/italys-new-government-wont-be-fascist-but-it-will-face-major-challenges\/","title":{"rendered":"Italy\u2019s new government won\u2019t be \u2018fascist\u2019, but it will face major challenges"},"content":{"rendered":"
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On 25 September, Italy went to the polls and elected a record number of far-right members of parliament. As a result, the leader of the largest party in the winning coalition, Giorgia Meloni, is expected to form a government later this month. If that happens, it will be a first for two reasons: the country will have its first far-right government since the end of World War II and its first government led by a woman.<\/p>\n

Since these unusual characteristics apply to a G7 nation with the world\u2019s eighth-largest economy\u2014right in the middle of an international crisis\u2014observers are understandably worried<\/a>. While doubts abound, I\u2019ll focus on two key aspects: the so-called risk of fascism and the foreign-policy challenges of Rome\u2019s new government.<\/p>\n

A far-right government, not a fascist one <\/strong><\/p>\n

Dozens of catchy headlines<\/a> suggest that Rome may soon have its first \u2018fascist government\u2019 since the dark days of Benito Mussolini. Sure, Meloni herself praised the country\u2019s dictator multiple times in her younger days. Several high-profile members of Meloni\u2019s party, Fratelli d\u2019Italia<\/em> (Brothers of Italy), share a common past among the ranks of post-fascist organisations, and indeed the party itself rose from the ashes of a former post-fascist party, whose controversial symbol (a tricolour flame) it still bears today.<\/p>\n

However, cries of fascism are thoroughly exaggerated<\/a>, due to a number of internal and external factors.<\/p>\n

Domestically, Meloni\u2019s far-right coalition rests on tenuous ground. The three key parties have different views on a number of vital issues (including sanctions against Russia, which Meloni supports, unlike the two other coalition parties), and there would be no parliamentary majority if any of the three left the government.<\/p>\n

On top of that, keeping the coalition\u2019s electoral promises would be far too costly<\/a>, and the necessity to ditch many of the proposed reforms would likely impair governmental stability, which, after all, has never been a feature of Italian politics (the country has had 67 governments in the past 76 years).<\/p>\n

That said, Italy has a number of checks and balances that would avert any serious risk<\/a> to democracy. The president of the republic acts as a guarantor of the constitution and has significant powers to that end; the Constitutional Court oversees the admissibility of all laws; and the political opposition and civil society as a whole continue to remain vigilant.<\/p>\n

But there are many external constraints as well, since Rome has countless high-profile international engagements that inevitably influence the direction of any new government.<\/p>\n

Italy is a founding member and a top-10 donor of many international organisations, whose prearranged obligations prevent substantial deviations from the commitments set by previous administrations\u2014a condition known as path dependence.<\/p>\n

It is also the number one peacekeeper<\/a> of the global north, in terms of both the number of missions it leads and the number of troops it deploys. This strong commitment to the rules-based order would be virtually impossible to relinquish during the average lifespan of an Italian government (1.7 years, since 2000).<\/p>\n

And as much as the winning coalition campaigned for regressive social policies with an abrasive rhetoric, its ability (and perhaps real willingness) to make substantial changes is limited, and so dark words like \u2018fascism\u2019 have no place in this case.<\/p>\n

Rome\u2019s new foreign and security policy challenges<\/strong><\/p>\n

The first major foreign policy challenge for the new government will be Italy\u2019s military expenditure, which will rise from 1.5% to 2% of the country\u2019s sizeable GDP<\/a> ($3.3 trillion in 2021) in six years. It will have to partially decide where to allocate the large extra funds while avoiding unproductive expenses.<\/p>\n

Within the EU, Meloni and her allies will have to demonstrate that they can effectively lead the union\u2019s third-largest economy and second-largest manufacturer and continue to consolidate the country\u2019s public finances. Much of Italy\u2019s huge post-Covid-19 recovery plan, which is worth around $340 billion, depends on this<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Close to home, a volatile Mediterranean remains a significant concern, exacerbated by the ongoing Libyan civil war, very strong flows of irregular maritime arrivals (71,000 in the first nine months<\/a> of 2022) and regional rivalries with France, Turkey and Egypt.<\/p>\n

Further away from Italian shores, but still inside its Mediterraneo allargato<\/em> (enlarged Mediterranean) sphere of interest, Italy\u2019s numerous trade routes<\/a> and peacekeeping missions provide ongoing strategic challenges, including the key NATO mission in Iraq that Italy has commanded since May.<\/p>\n

In addition, the \u2018enlarged Mediterranean\u2019, which stretches to the Arabian Sea, is witnessing a growing Chinese presence through Beijing\u2019s \u2018Maritime Silk Road\u2019 and Russian military presence through its bases in Syria, further complicating Rome\u2019s deployments under multilateral and unilateral missions aimed at strengthening the rules-based order.<\/p>\n

And, finally, Italy is quietly focusing on the Indo-Pacific<\/a>, by virtue of its long-term engagement in the Western Indian Ocean and recent partnerships with ASEAN, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Vietnam. How Rome will engage with the world\u2019s geopolitical and geoeconomic epicentre\u2014and its many potential flashpoints\u2014will be a substantial test for the new government.<\/p>\n

Overall, these challenges will put much pressure over the new Italian administration, which could seek not to fail by maintaining existing foreign policy postures\u2014although we can also expect occasional controversial measures (especially when it comes to trying to stem irregular maritime arrivals). Should political divisions continue to worsen due to domestic and foreign policy divergences, however, Italian politics could always play its time-tested trick and change yet another government.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 25 September, Italy went to the polls and elected a record number of far-right members of parliament. As a result, the leader of the largest party in the winning coalition, Giorgia Meloni, is expected …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1621,"featured_media":75750,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[753,325,1025,2314,3371,2131],"class_list":["post-75747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-election","tag-europe","tag-european-union","tag-fascism","tag-giorgia-meloni","tag-italy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nItaly\u2019s new government won\u2019t be \u2018fascist\u2019, but it will face major challenges | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/italys-new-government-wont-be-fascist-but-it-will-face-major-challenges\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Italy\u2019s new government won\u2019t be \u2018fascist\u2019, but it will face major challenges | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On 25 September, Italy went to the polls and elected a record number of far-right members of parliament. 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