{"id":75879,"date":"2022-10-18T11:15:40","date_gmt":"2022-10-18T00:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=75879"},"modified":"2022-10-18T11:11:51","modified_gmt":"2022-10-18T00:11:51","slug":"internal-divisions-spell-the-end-of-asean-as-we-know-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/internal-divisions-spell-the-end-of-asean-as-we-know-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Internal divisions spell the end of ASEAN as we know it"},"content":{"rendered":"
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As Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand gear up to host major world summits next month, the 55-year-old Association of Southeast Asian Nations is facing an existential crisis, owing to severe internal splits over Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/a>, Myanmar\u2019s military coup<\/a> and other issues. The 2007 ASEAN charter<\/a>\u2019s vision of deeper political, economic, security and socio-cultural integration is no more. Salvaging what\u2019s left will require accepting that reality and regrouping accordingly.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding past bureaucratic and functional pledges to do more together, ASEAN\u2019s regional integration has always been shallow. Intra-regional trade in goods remains low, at 21.3%, and trade in services trade is under 12%, according to data<\/a> from the ASEAN secretariat. Moreover, 88% of investment in the region comes from outside sources. Unlike the European Union, with its economic integration through a single market, ASEAN has emphasised cross-border connectivity through hard and soft infrastructure, from roads and railways to tourism and people-to-people contacts.<\/p>\n

True, for a while after the ASEAN charter took effect, the organisation appeared to be going places. At the time, the region\u2019s economy was the fastest-growing<\/a> in the world, and its promising trajectory coincided with Myanmar\u2019s post-2011 decade<\/a> of political opening and economic reform.<\/p>\n

Harnessing that internal momentum, ASEAN took the lead in organising regional projects for peace and security, through gatherings of the Asia\u2013Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Defence Ministers\u2019 Meeting Plus. Corporations and investment funds formulated ASEAN-focused strategies, recognising the region\u2019s promise as an interconnected production hub with a combined GDP of more than US$3 trillion<\/a> and more than 680 million people, many of them young and comprising an expanding middle class.<\/p>\n

But this narrative of ASEAN progress has lost its lustre as the geopolitical setting has changed. ASEAN\u2019s success requires relative peace and a rough balance between the major powers in its orbit. When the big powers are locked in a zero-sum conflict\u2014as between Russia and the West or China and the United States\u2014ASEAN almost inevitably will become as divided and ineffective as it was before Cambodia joined<\/a> as the tenth and last member state in 1999.<\/p>\n

Consider China\u2019s interests in the South China Sea, Myanmar\u2019s internal conflict and Russia\u2019s war of aggression in Ukraine. Each issue pulls different ASEAN member states in different directions. Cambodia supports China<\/a> and Myanmar\u2019s junta<\/a> under the State Administration Council, but not Russia<\/a>. Laos appears to be backing<\/a> all three. And Vietnam has been critical<\/a> of China, but silent on Myanmar\u2019s military dictatorship and sympathetic<\/a> to Russia.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore have aligned in expressing concerns<\/a> about China\u2019s belligerent role in the South China Sea, the Tatmadaw\u2019s takeover<\/a> in Myanmar and Russia\u2019s war. And while Thailand has been soft on China\u2019s territorial assertiveness and Myanmar\u2019s putsch, it has taken a measured stand against Russia\u2019s aggression.<\/p>\n

Myanmar itself is a telling case. The United Nations still recognises<\/a> the ambassador from the civilian-led government, and ASEAN so far has refused<\/a> to allow the State Administration Council to represent the country in its major gatherings. As a result, Myanmar was on the record voting to condemn<\/a> Russia at the UN even as the council openly supported<\/a> the Kremlin. Having failed<\/a> to promote dialogue and negotiation in Myanmar with its \u2018five-point consensus\u2019 last year, ASEAN\u2019s rotating chairmanship, led by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, is now pressing harder<\/a> against the junta and its leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.<\/p>\n

Still, the situation in Myanmar is threatening to derail November\u2019s ASEAN-anchored summit meetings<\/a> in Phnom Penh. And Russia\u2019s war has cast a shadow over the APEC meeting<\/a> in Thailand and this year\u2019s G20 summit<\/a> in Indonesia the same month.<\/p>\n

To navigate this fraught geopolitical environment, ASEAN needs a new approach. Members that are willing and able to take common positions should do so without waiting for unanimity among all 10 countries. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore are already leading the way, and others, such as Thailand and Vietnam, can join them on specific issues that serve their interests. The new model could perhaps follow an \u2018ASEAN 5+X\u2019 formula, with the five original members\u2014Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore\u2014serving as a renewed organisational core.<\/p>\n

The old ASEAN is gone for good. The region will not be completely united through political-security, economic and socio-cultural communities. But nor will the organisation be disbanded. Instead, its likeminded members should pursue a hard realignment, so that individual parties\u2014like Myanmar\u2019s military\u2014can\u2019t paralyse the rest of the group. For now, the new ASEAN should centre on the founding five members plus Vietnam. If Cambodia and Laos want to be regarded as core members, they will need to moderate their positions, rather than carry water for external powers.<\/p>\n

The idea of forming an ASEAN economic community is no longer an option. Instead, governments, civil-society organisations and businesses with stakes in Southeast Asia will need to start thinking of the region\u2019s integration as an \u00e0 la carte menu rather than a five-course meal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand gear up to host major world summits next month, the 55-year-old Association of Southeast Asian Nations is facing an existential crisis, owing to severe internal splits over Russia\u2019s invasion of …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1162,"featured_media":75881,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[189,52,212,163,25],"class_list":["post-75879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asean","tag-china","tag-myanmar","tag-russia","tag-southeast-asia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nInternal divisions spell the end of ASEAN as we know it | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/internal-divisions-spell-the-end-of-asean-as-we-know-it\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Internal divisions spell the end of ASEAN as we know it | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand gear up to host major world summits next month, the 55-year-old Association of Southeast Asian Nations is facing an existential crisis, owing to severe internal splits over Russia\u2019s invasion of ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/internal-divisions-spell-the-end-of-asean-as-we-know-it\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-18T00:15:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-10-18T00:11:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1061641076.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Thitinan Pongsudhirak\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Thitinan Pongsudhirak\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/internal-divisions-spell-the-end-of-asean-as-we-know-it\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1061641076.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-1061641076.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE - November 15: (L-R) New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Myanmar's State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang wait on stage for a group photo during the East Asia Summit on the sidelines of the 33rd Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and Related Meetings on November 15, 2018 in Singapore. 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