{"id":76065,"date":"2022-10-25T13:30:53","date_gmt":"2022-10-25T02:30:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=76065"},"modified":"2022-10-25T13:09:17","modified_gmt":"2022-10-25T02:09:17","slug":"turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As NATO has pulled together in opposition to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, the \u2018black sheep<\/a>\u2019 of the family, remains awkwardly straddled between its roles as Europe\u2019s ally and antagonist.<\/p>\n

In recent weeks, Turkish state banks have become the latest to suspend the use <\/a>of Russia\u2019s Mir payment system, just a month after Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati raised eyebrows by dismissing warnings<\/a> of sanctions over Turkey\u2019s continued business with Russia, even disdainfully labelling the West\u2019s threat as \u2018meaningless<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

While Turkey\u2019s recent compliance is encouraging, such contemptuous rhetoric from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\u2019s administration has become as common as it is troubling. Erdogan has weaponised refugees<\/a> to strongarm the European Union; facilitated the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of Kurds; and arrested, abducted and tortured<\/a> countless political opponents. He has, unsurprisingly, little affection for the West.<\/p>\n

However, by fixating on Erdogan\u2019s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his war in Ukraine, we have neglected Turkey\u2019s involvement in another tragedy that epitomises its uncomfortable fit within NATO: Ankara\u2019s drone sales to Ethiopia.<\/p>\n

The Telegraph<\/em> has labelled the conflict in Ethiopia\u2019s Tigray region as the \u2018Great War of Africa<\/a>\u2019 and the \u2018deadliest war in the world\u2019. It is on track to be the bloodiest and most costly conflict of the new millennium, yet it has failed to grab major headlines.<\/p>\n

Clashes in late August between the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and the militant Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia\u2019s northern regions reignited<\/a> a two-year civil war that has seen horrific crimes <\/a>committed by both sides.<\/p>\n

At least half a million<\/a> Ethiopians have been killed and millions more displaced. These figures, which already dwarf the human cost in Ukraine, don\u2019t include the cost of the war\u2019s agricultural devastation<\/a> during a severe drought, which the World Bank estimates<\/a> will plunge 70 million East Africans into famine by next July.<\/p>\n

Disturbingly, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u2014a former Nobel Peace Prize winner\u2014has morphed from Africa\u2019s democratic darling into a repressive and autocratic <\/a>warmonger.<\/p>\n

Worse still, Abiy has equipped his forces<\/a> with fleets of armed drones from international suppliers<\/a>, including the United Arab Emirates, China and Iran<\/a>. Since last November, however, when it finalised a security pact<\/a> with Erdogan, the ENDF has been turbocharging its drone fleet with Turkish Bayraktar TB2s\u2014a platform so cheap, reliable and popular it has been called \u2018the Toyota Corolla of drones\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The use of these drones has fundamentally changed the strategic calculus underpinning both sides\u2019 behaviour, threatening to push any potential peace deal out of reach. The damage they have wrought throughout Tigray prompted UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker T\u00fcrk to issue a statement<\/a> last week describing the toll on civilians as \u2018utterly staggering\u2019.<\/p>\n

First, the use of armed drones undermines one of the key forces motivating a resolution to any conflict: cost aversion. Drones will likely not permit a Clausewitzian culminating victory over the TPLF, particularly given their guerrilla tactics. However, they do allow Abiy to score cheap, regular tactical victories, reducing the incentive for negotiations while forcing his insurgent opponents deeper underground. Tragically, the inevitable terrorist retaliations<\/a> will likely target Ethiopian civilians as much as ENDF personnel.<\/p>\n

In addition, given both the TB2\u2019s range and the TPLF\u2019s inability to counter aerial vehicles, previously salient borders between TPLF-controlled and ENDF-controlled territories are becoming blurred. No longer safe within Tigray, TPLF fighters are encouraged to move into neighbouring regions such as Amhara, widening the conflict\u2019s zone of devastation while Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan contribute greater resources<\/a> to the war.<\/p>\n

ENDF drone strikes have already prevented aid providers<\/a> from providing much-needed food, water and medical services to victims of the violence, famine and human rights abuses, compounding the crisis<\/a> and pushing East Africa closer to the point of no return.<\/p>\n

There are arguments both for and against launching a full-scale intervention in Ethiopia, led by the United Nations, the United States or others. However, there\u2019s no excuse to sit by while Ethiopians are devasted by advanced military technologies sold by despotic human rights abusers, particularly when they target peacekeepers and aid providers<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s recent suspension of the Mir payment system in the face of Western sanctions suggests that the confluence of Ankara\u2019s precarious economic situation<\/a> and Erdogan\u2019s own political vulnerabilities<\/a> might motivate NATO\u2019s black sheep to move a little closer to the flock. If Erdogan demands customers for Turkish drones, Western-allied states could arrange to purchase more TB2s. NATO could kill two birds with one stone by arming Eastern European militaries with drones already<\/a> proven against Russian armour, while keeping them out of the hands of the developing world\u2019s autocrats.<\/p>\n

Given the widespread atrocities in Ethiopia, the West can\u2019t give full moral support either to Abiy\u2019s regime or to the TPLF. It can, however, support the millions of innocent people trapped in this conflict zone by addressing the impact of Turkey\u2019s drones.<\/p>\n

More than just military platforms, Erdogan is exporting instability throughout the developing world\u2014sales from which Turkey is profiting handsomely.<\/p>\n

Erdogan\u2019s drones would surely be better used to uphold security in Ukraine than to undermine it in Ethiopia. As the bodies in Tigray pile higher and higher, so too does our obligation to act.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As NATO has pulled together in opposition to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, the \u2018black sheep\u2019 of the family, remains awkwardly straddled between its roles as Europe\u2019s ally and antagonist. In recent weeks, Turkish state …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1514,"featured_media":76071,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[177,838,402,1766,2365,747],"class_list":["post-76065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-africa","tag-civil-war","tag-drones","tag-erdogan","tag-ethiopia","tag-turkey"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTurkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As NATO has pulled together in opposition to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, the \u2018black sheep\u2019 of the family, remains awkwardly straddled between its roles as Europe\u2019s ally and antagonist. In recent weeks, Turkish state ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-25T02:30:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-10-25T02:09:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-913782666.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"727\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Joshua Dunne\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Joshua Dunne\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-913782666.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-913782666.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":727,\"caption\":\"BATMAN, TURKEY - FEBRUARY 03: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY MANDATORY CREDIT - \\\" TURKISH PRESIDENCY \/ MURAT CETINMUHURDAR \/ HANDOUT\\\" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signs the Bayraktar TB2 UCAV during his visit to 14th Unmanned Aircraft System Command in Batman, Turkey on February 3, 2018. (Photo by Turkish Presidency \/ Murat Cetinmuhurdar \/ Handout\/Anadolu Agency\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/\",\"name\":\"Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-25T02:30:53+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-10-25T02:09:17+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/241d532a4d168491804270299e70bb7c\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/241d532a4d168491804270299e70bb7c\",\"name\":\"Joshua Dunne\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/51b3ad30312a2278f15f6f627c328b23?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/51b3ad30312a2278f15f6f627c328b23?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Joshua Dunne\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/joshua-dunne\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace | The Strategist","og_description":"As NATO has pulled together in opposition to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, the \u2018black sheep\u2019 of the family, remains awkwardly straddled between its roles as Europe\u2019s ally and antagonist. In recent weeks, Turkish state ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2022-10-25T02:30:53+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-10-25T02:09:17+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":727,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-913782666.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Joshua Dunne","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Joshua Dunne","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-913782666.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GettyImages-913782666.jpg","width":1024,"height":727,"caption":"BATMAN, TURKEY - FEBRUARY 03: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY MANDATORY CREDIT - \" TURKISH PRESIDENCY \/ MURAT CETINMUHURDAR \/ HANDOUT\" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signs the Bayraktar TB2 UCAV during his visit to 14th Unmanned Aircraft System Command in Batman, Turkey on February 3, 2018. (Photo by Turkish Presidency \/ Murat Cetinmuhurdar \/ Handout\/Anadolu Agency\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/","name":"Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2022-10-25T02:30:53+00:00","dateModified":"2022-10-25T02:09:17+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/241d532a4d168491804270299e70bb7c"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkish-drones-are-destroying-ethiopias-promise-of-peace\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia\u2019s promise of peace"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/241d532a4d168491804270299e70bb7c","name":"Joshua Dunne","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/51b3ad30312a2278f15f6f627c328b23?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/51b3ad30312a2278f15f6f627c328b23?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Joshua Dunne"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/joshua-dunne\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76065"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1514"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76065"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76065\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76072,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76065\/revisions\/76072"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}