{"id":76501,"date":"2022-11-11T14:30:29","date_gmt":"2022-11-11T03:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=76501"},"modified":"2022-11-11T12:43:30","modified_gmt":"2022-11-11T01:43:30","slug":"as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/","title":{"rendered":"As the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Nations meeting to advance action on climate change at COP27 in Egypt know we\u2019re headed for dangerous climate impacts. The UN Environment Programme confirmed in its 2022 emissions gap report<\/a> that there is no longer a \u2018credible pathway\u2019 to keep global warming below 1.5\u00b0C based on 2030 commitments. The report, titled The closing window<\/em>, suggests that we may still have a shot at keeping warming to 2.0\u00b0C, but only if all countries fully meet their net-zero pledges. That\u2019s far from guaranteed or likely given the lack of detail in those pledges. We\u2019re already seeing extreme climate events annually\u2014but even more dangerous impacts are locked in.<\/p>\n

The good news is that our efforts to deploy clean energy have succeeded enough to rule out the worst-case projected emissions scenarios and it\u2019s now unlikely that we\u2019ll reach catastrophic warming beyond 4.0\u00b0C. There\u2019s one important caveat: modelling suggests that any warming over 1.5\u00b0C<\/a> will increase the risk of self-reinforcing tipping points in the global climate system. Tipping points are temperature thresholds at which significant greenhouse gases can be released suddenly, greatly amplifying global warming\u2014for example, a release of frozen stores of carbon dioxide and methane gas from thawing Arctic permafrost.<\/p>\n

Because a climate-disrupted future remains possible, another danger needs our attention. As the impacts of warming become more extreme, countries are more likely to turn to riskier measures to combat them, including geoengineering.<\/p>\n

Geoengineering can entail modifying local weather conditions (such as seeding clouds to change rainfall<\/a>), removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (separating it out and storing it) or managing solar radiation (reducing the amount of sunlight that can get trapped as heat in the atmosphere). These options have been discussed in climate circles for many years\u2014at various times considered a last resort, a moral hazard that could delay decarbonisation of economies<\/a>, or generally a dystopian nightmare.<\/p>\n

Solar radiation management is the most troubling geoengineering idea. The objective is to block sunlight entirely by deploying satellite sunshades between the earth and the sun, to dim the skies by dispersing reflective sulphate aerosols in the stratosphere, or to increase the reflectivity of clouds (cloud whitening) or surface objects like rooftops (or, in an extreme case, glass beads scattered across the Arctic<\/a>).<\/p>\n

In theory, these approaches could rapidly cool global temperatures\u2014especially the dispersal of sulphate aerosols, whose effect would be somewhat like what happens naturally from massive volcanic plumes<\/a>. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in mid-1991, for example, is estimated to have cooled global temperatures by 0.5\u00b0C for two years<\/a>. Some geoengineering proponents believe that releasing sulphate aerosols into the atmosphere could achieve a similar result and help blunt the threat posed by climate change in the near term.<\/p>\n

The danger with these approaches is that deep uncertainty exists about their impacts. They could drive severe consequences that\u2014like global warming itself\u2014don\u2019t respect borders. Dimming sunlight with sulphate aerosols could diminish crop productivity<\/a> while altering precipitation patterns and increasing the acidity of rainfall, all of which would further stress climate-change-affected regions and the global food system. The massive and rapid changes in atmospheric conditions from such cooling could have simultaneous and devastating consequences for food-insecure communities globally.<\/p>\n

Other geoengineering approaches could backfire in other ways. For example, deploying a massive number of glass beads to enable the Arctic to reflect more sunlight could instead trap more sunlight<\/a> as heat, likely resulting in faster melting of sea ice.<\/p>\n

Scientific uncertainty about the use and consequences of geoengineering is a legitimate concern, but there are barriers even to studying it (particularly in the case of solar radiation management). The UN Convention on Biological Diversity has banned all but small-scale geoengineering experiments for over a decade. Earlier this year, a group of concerned scientists and governance experts<\/a> published an open letter calling for a total ban on solar geoengineering on the grounds that its impacts can never be fully understood or equitably governed in the international system. The main international body that helps coordinate and prioritise climate science research, the World Climate Research Programme, is still determining what role it should play in research on geoengineering.<\/p>\n

In response to a recommendation by the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine<\/a> in 2021 to help address uncertainties, the US began developing<\/a> a research plan on solar geoengineering in mid-2022. Readiness to develop research isn\u2019t matched with an eagerness to address governance issues, however. Under a different US administration, a 2019 proposal led by Switzerland asking the UNEP to produce a report on geoengineering was blocked by the US and Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

What makes governance of these approaches difficult is that they may be cheap enough to be deployed by many state and non-state actors. The incremental cost of avoiding 1.0\u00b0C of warming<\/a> with sulphate aerosol dispersion may be only US$18 billion a year, a significant but achievable budget allocation for many advanced and emerging economies, high-net worth individuals or companies.<\/p>\n

In addition, it\u2019s difficult to know when techniques like solar radiation management should be used because global average temperature rises will result in variable impacts. For example, 2\u00b0C of warming will be difficult for all countries but will threaten the existence of some. The cross-border and likely uneven impacts of geoengineering make it difficult to know who would benefit or suffer, further complicating a consensus decision on when the risks of something like sulphate aerosol dispersion would justify its use.<\/p>\n

These dynamics mean it\u2019s time to establish multilateral institutions and global norms for geoengineering research and use. We need to do that now. A fence needs to be set around geoengineering so that it can\u2019t be used to justify backsliding among advanced economies to delay decarbonisation. Instead, the principles of its use and study must be informed explicitly by the countries that are the most exposed to climate impacts at any level of warming above 1.5\u00b0C and the least able to adapt.<\/p>\n

Multilateral institutions are our best hope for governing geoengineering. As ineffective as they may seem at managing our shared atmosphere, particularly as we return to a multipolar world, they\u2019re the reason we\u2019ve avoided the worst-case emissions scenario\u2014and are recovering our ozone layer. Energy markets and economic self-interest may drive the transition, but it was global scientific consensus and the UN that established the knowledge, imperative and targets driving global efforts.<\/p>\n

There should be no doubt that geoengineering is an absolute last resort we should fear\u2014for a worst-case scenario we can still avoid. Of course, we need to rapidly reduce emissions to avoid dangerous warming in the first place and redouble investments in adaptation. But as the UNEP emissions gap report suggests, we still need to prepare for dangerous climate impacts\u2014including the possibility of disruptive tipping points. That planning process must include getting a better understanding of geoengineering and deciding what part it will play in our response.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re running out of time and can\u2019t keep kicking the can down the road. With everything else climate change brings, in an era of renewed strategic competition, Australia cannot afford to sit this issue out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nations meeting to advance action on climate change at COP27 in Egypt know we\u2019re headed for dangerous climate impacts. The UN Environment Programme confirmed in its 2022 emissions gap report that there is no longer …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1635,"featured_media":76505,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[283,1717,3402,1178],"class_list":["post-76501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-security","tag-geoengineering","tag-natural-disaster"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAs the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"As the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nations meeting to advance action on climate change at COP27 in Egypt know we\u2019re headed for dangerous climate impacts. The UN Environment Programme confirmed in its 2022 emissions gap report that there is no longer ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-11-11T03:30:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-11T01:43:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-82733003.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"678\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mike Copage\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mike Copage\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-82733003.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-82733003.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":678,\"caption\":\"Two employees work on pipes carrying liquid CO2 on September 08, 2008 at the \\\"Schwarze Pumpe\\\" (\\\"Black Pump\\\") power station run by Europe's biggest power company Vattenfall in Werder near Berlin. The power station that will be inaugurated on September 09, is part of a pilot project using a new method which according to Vattenfall allows continuing burning coal but with radically reduced emissions. To do so, the Swedish firm is using Carbon Capture and Storage, or CCS, which captures the greenhouse gases produced when fossil fuels are combusted, preventing the gases from escaping into the Earth's atmosphere and contributing to global warming. AFP PHOTO DDP\/ MICHAEL URBAN GERMANY OUT (Photo credit should read MICHAEL URBAN\/DDP\/AFP via Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/\",\"name\":\"As the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-11-11T03:30:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-11-11T01:43:30+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/e5185d5b0ebffef182191b7bf92b1ef0\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"As the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/e5185d5b0ebffef182191b7bf92b1ef0\",\"name\":\"Mike Copage\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2762725c9b0882625001d3d909296c0e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2762725c9b0882625001d3d909296c0e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Mike Copage\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/mike-copage\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"As the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"As the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount | The Strategist","og_description":"Nations meeting to advance action on climate change at COP27 in Egypt know we\u2019re headed for dangerous climate impacts. The UN Environment Programme confirmed in its 2022 emissions gap report that there is no longer ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2022-11-11T03:30:29+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-11-11T01:43:30+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":678,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-82733003.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Mike Copage","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Mike Copage","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-82733003.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-82733003.jpg","width":1024,"height":678,"caption":"Two employees work on pipes carrying liquid CO2 on September 08, 2008 at the \"Schwarze Pumpe\" (\"Black Pump\") power station run by Europe's biggest power company Vattenfall in Werder near Berlin. The power station that will be inaugurated on September 09, is part of a pilot project using a new method which according to Vattenfall allows continuing burning coal but with radically reduced emissions. To do so, the Swedish firm is using Carbon Capture and Storage, or CCS, which captures the greenhouse gases produced when fossil fuels are combusted, preventing the gases from escaping into the Earth's atmosphere and contributing to global warming. AFP PHOTO DDP\/ MICHAEL URBAN GERMANY OUT (Photo credit should read MICHAEL URBAN\/DDP\/AFP via Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/","name":"As the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2022-11-11T03:30:29+00:00","dateModified":"2022-11-11T01:43:30+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/e5185d5b0ebffef182191b7bf92b1ef0"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/as-the-planet-warms-risks-of-geoengineering-the-climate-mount\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"As the planet warms, risks of geoengineering the climate mount"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/e5185d5b0ebffef182191b7bf92b1ef0","name":"Mike Copage","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2762725c9b0882625001d3d909296c0e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2762725c9b0882625001d3d909296c0e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Mike Copage"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/mike-copage\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76501"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1635"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76501"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76501\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76506,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76501\/revisions\/76506"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}