{"id":76663,"date":"2022-11-21T11:30:07","date_gmt":"2022-11-21T00:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=76663"},"modified":"2022-11-21T11:31:18","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T00:31:18","slug":"the-missile-attack-that-wasnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-missile-attack-that-wasnt\/","title":{"rendered":"The missile attack that wasn\u2019t"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The rocket strike that killed two Poles near their country\u2019s border with Ukraine on 15 November \u00a0proved to be a test not so much of defence policy as of the information policy of Poland, Ukraine and NATO. Only the Americans passed. The European allies and Ukraine floundered, revealing a shocking lack of preparation for a scenario that could have been predicted almost from the beginning of the war.<\/p>\n

Poland is the largest country on NATO\u2019s eastern flank and serves as the most important logistical hub for a war that concerns almost the whole world. Firmness and unity on the part of the West are essential to Ukraine\u2019s defence and Russia\u2019s defeat, which may decide the fate of the world for decades. Tuesday\u2019s explosion in Poland, however, surprised everyone except the United States, and triggered an astonishing sequence of events, driven by astonishing bungling.<\/p>\n

Poles learned<\/a> about the rocket impact, which took place at 3.40 pm, a little before 8.00 pm from the Associated Press. The Polish government remained silent until after midnight, when the foreign ministry issued a statement claiming that the incident involved a \u2018Russian-produced missile\u2019 and demanding an explanation from Russia\u2019s ambassador. The government placed some military units on combat alert.<\/p>\n

Then, when Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and President Andrzej Duda addressed<\/a> the public, they didn\u2019t explain the origin of the rocket, fuelling widespread suspicion that this had been an attack (intentional or not) by Russia. Many of the three million Ukrainians living in Poland, 85% of whom are women and children, came to believe that the war they fled was about to catch up with them.<\/p>\n

When Poles received new information, it was from the Americans. At 4.00 am, Polish time, President Joe Biden revealed that the missile was probably fired by Ukrainian air-defence forces in the face of a Russian barrage. Duda mentioned<\/a> this only on the afternoon of 16 November, when the public was reassured for the first time that \u2018Poland was not the target of an attack by Russia.\u2019<\/p>\n

In the meantime, confusion among Poland\u2019s European NATO allies was growing. Some had already accused Russia, and some heads of government convened extraordinary government meetings, as in Hungary.<\/p>\n

Latvia\u2019s defence minister, Artis Pabriks, identified<\/a> the missile as \u2018Russian\u2019 on Twitter, a statement he repeated on CNN. Jana Cernochova, the Czech Republic\u2019s defence minister, called<\/a> the incident an \u2018unnecessary provocation\u2019 by Russia. Bulgaria\u2019s president, Rumen Radev, described<\/a> the explosion as \u2018unacceptable\u2019. Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus\u0117da stated that<\/a> \u2018Tuesday\u2019s explosions in Poland mean a new phase in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine. NATO must respond accordingly\u2019, and called on NATO to deploy more anti-missile systems on NATO\u2019s eastern flank.<\/p>\n

The impression that Russia really had struck Poland was strengthened by the Russian foreign ministry. In the immediate aftermath of the initial US reporting on the explosion, the Russians applied their usual formula and alleged a Western provocation.<\/p>\n

By contrast, the Western responses, however misguided, were right about the sole party responsible for the missile strike. As NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg emphasised<\/a>, \u2018Ukraine has the right to defend itself against Russia\u2019s illegal war of aggression.\u2019<\/p>\n

But then came an unexpected rift between NATO leaders and Ukraine. \u2018I have no doubt that it was not our rocket,\u2019 President Volodymyr Zelensky declared<\/a>, adding that Ukraine had evidence and demanding access to the investigation. Surprised, Poland and its NATO allies refrained<\/a> from commenting on Zelensky\u2019s statement, evidently waiting for greater messaging coherence.<\/p>\n

Zelensky\u2019s rigidity may also reinforce the impression among some Western leaders that the Ukrainian authorities are behaving arrogantly while Europe is not only paying for arms and humanitarian aid, but also suffering from record inflation, which in Poland is approaching 20%. For example, if Hungary under its pro-Russian prime minister, Viktor Orban, had been in Poland\u2019s position\u2014serving as the main conduit for armaments, energy, food and other supplies flowing to Ukraine\u2014Russia almost certainly would have prevailed by now.<\/p>\n

Following the latest Russian missile barrage, the EU should strengthen the ninth package of sanctions against Russia, which Orban has predictably opposed. But the explosion in Poland may make Hungary\u2014Poland\u2019s closest ally within the EU\u2014more compliant.<\/p>\n

Another obvious consequence should be NATO\u2019s strengthening of air defences over its eastern flank. Warsaw, the Polish capital, has only a Soviet-era system, built in the 1960s and 1970s. Poland has purchased eight Patriot anti-missile batteries from the US, but they won\u2019t arrive for another decade, and the two that are already in place won\u2019t be ready to use until 2023<\/a>, at the earliest.<\/p>\n

The transport routes carrying US arms to Ukraine and the transmission line that connects Ukraine with the EU\u2019s energy system (which, incidentally, runs very close to the site of the recent explosion) are well within range of the Russian missiles raining down on the other side of NATO\u2019s eastern border. The recent explosion in Poland was an accident. The next one may not be.<\/p>\n

Zelensky knows this, so he has already begun to say that he is not completely sure<\/a> about the origin of the rocket that fell in Poland. The origin may not have been Russia, but the explosion certainly originated there.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rocket strike that killed two Poles near their country\u2019s border with Ukraine on 15 November \u00a0proved to be a test not so much of defence policy as of the information policy of Poland, Ukraine …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":646,"featured_media":76666,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1025,268,1202,261,955],"class_list":["post-76663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-european-union","tag-missile","tag-missile-defence","tag-nato","tag-poland","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe missile attack that wasn\u2019t | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-missile-attack-that-wasnt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The missile attack that wasn\u2019t | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The rocket strike that killed two Poles near their country\u2019s border with Ukraine on 15 November \u00a0proved to be a test not so much of defence policy as of the information policy of Poland, Ukraine ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-missile-attack-that-wasnt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-11-21T00:30:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-21T00:31:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-1244842929.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Slawomir Sierakowski\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Slawomir Sierakowski\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-missile-attack-that-wasnt\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-1244842929.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/GettyImages-1244842929.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":576,\"caption\":\"TOPSHOT - Aerial view taken on November 17, 2022 shows the site where a missile strike killed two men in the eastern Poland village of Przewodow, near the border with war-ravaged Ukraine on November 15, 2022. - The strike occurred in the afternoon of November 15, 2022, as Russia targeted Ukraine with a massive attack on civilian infrastructure, which has left millions of households without power. 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