{"id":76905,"date":"2022-12-03T15:38:05","date_gmt":"2022-12-03T04:38:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=76905"},"modified":"2022-12-03T19:19:26","modified_gmt":"2022-12-03T08:19:26","slug":"aspi-explains-the-protests-rocking-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aspi-explains-the-protests-rocking-china\/","title":{"rendered":"ASPI explains: The protests rocking China"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

China is being rocked by the worst civil protests since those that culminated in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. In this explainer, Daria Impiombato<\/strong>, an analyst at ASPI\u2019s International Cyber Policy Centre, interviews Vicky Xiuzhong Xu<\/strong>, an independent researcher and ASPI senior fellow, about what is happening across the country and what the demonstrations mean for the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s rule. The following is an edited transcript of the interview on our <\/a><\/em>Policy, Guns and Money<\/a> podcast<\/a><\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Daria Impiombato: How rare is such a wave of protests in China? Is it fair to say it is the biggest act of civil disobedience since Tiananmen Square?<\/p>\n

Vicky Xu: Definitely. We haven\u2019t seen anything like it since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests by the students. What I\u2019m hearing is that even people in China on the ground are saying this is very similar to what happened 30 years ago. It is extremely significant. For me, as someone born and raised in China and who remains very connected to China, it\u2019s unimaginable. I\u2019m so excited about it.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: You\u2019ve interviewed a few people on the ground, including a protester for your own podcast, Speaking Till the End<\/em>. Who are these protesters? Is it mainly young people, students, or is it more of a mix?<\/p>\n

Xu: From what I\u2019m hearing, the protesters are mostly young people, mostly university students and some professionals. There are older people, but they are the minority. Women have played an especially strong role. When I\u2019ve asked why are they protesting, why are they risking everything\u2014their lives, their safety, their futures, their careers\u2014to take to the streets and express their anger and frustration about the Chinese Communist Party, they\u2019re literally quoting people from 30 years ago. They\u2019re saying, \u2018It\u2019s my duty,\u2019 which is a very famous line from the 1989 Tiananmen protests.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: That is quite inspiring, knowing how severe the surveillance apparatus is these days\u2014which brings me to my next question about tactics. How are these protesters even managing to organise and to skirt the overpowering information control within China?<\/p>\n

Xu: There have been a number of stages. What essentially inspired this wave of protests was that, before the 20th CCP congress, there was this lone man in Beijing protesting against the Chinese government (people believe his name may be Peng Zaizhou but no one has been able to confirm it). He held up a banner that said the Chinese people need to stop doing so many Covid-19 tests every day, and they need to eat. And he called President Xi Jinping a dictator. So that one-man protest essentially sparked what now seems to be a political movement. Chinese people, especially young people, started sending messages and photos and slogans about that one-man protest to each other via Apple AirDrop.<\/p>\n

People know that there\u2019s censorship and people know that the government is watching, but AirDrop is a clever way to share information without using the internet and without leaving any record. The government noticed, and I assume the government gave Apple an ultimatum, because in the end, Apple changed rules for AirDrop in China so that Chinese people could no longer use it as a way of organisation.<\/p>\n

Then there is Telegram, the encrypted messaging app, which is useful for organising. This is the same used in Iran and in Hong Kong in 2019. Unfortunately, my understanding is that a lot of these Telegram groups now have been infiltrated by Chinese cops. So now people are also relying on old-fashioned and decentralised methods such as just posting a picture saying, \u2018I\u2019m here,\u2019 or grabbing a piece of paper, a sheet of blank paper, standing outside and waiting for others to join.<\/p>\n

At Tsinghua University\u2014which is like China\u2019s Harvard\u2014a few days ago there was one young woman who held up a blank sheet of paper and stood outside. And that actually inspired, from what I read, more than 1,000 students to follow suit. They didn\u2019t use the internet, they didn\u2019t use any technology to organise that. It\u2019s remarkable.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: It\u2019s even more significant that it happened at Tsinghua because it is also the breeding ground for CCP leaders and is Xi Jinping\u2019s alma mater.<\/p>\n

Xu: Indeed. And the CCP is actually very, very wary of student protests, given what happened in 1989 and given how these universities were breeding grounds for radical ideas. Whenever there\u2019s the dissent brewing in China, especially in Beijing, there would be a lot of police officers sent to these campuses to watch and to crack down, so the students know what they\u2019re getting into. But they\u2019re doing it anyway. Again, nobody has seen anything like it in 30 years.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: The protests were initially mainly focused on Covid restrictions, and there was a huge wave of anger after a building fire in the capital of Xinjiang, Urumqi, that killed at least 10 people. Those deaths were blamed on the Covid lockdown. But now it\u2019s also become a protest about freedom of expression. To what extent do you think the protests reflect deeper anger about broader issues and about the CCP?<\/p>\n

Xu: As you said, the catalyst was the fire in Urumqi. People were saying that at least 10 residents were trapped in a building that was locked down and they weren\u2019t able to get out, and they burned to death. The officials deny this account. But nonetheless, this event really fired a lot of people up. This is after many, many more deaths that people blame \u2018Covid zero\u2019 for\u2014many suicides, accidents, so many deaths.<\/p>\n

One protester from Shanghai that I spoke to in my podcast joined what he initially thought was a vigil for the lives lost in the Urumqi fire. He saw all these people with flowers, following the Chinese tradition of pouring alcohol onto a sort of shrine. But then as more people gathered, they became galvanised and inspired each other and the anger and frustration multiplied.<\/p>\n

Some people started yelling slogans like, \u2018Stop Covid zero\u2019. Shanghai residents really suffered for a number of months this year. Many people didn\u2019t have access to food and medicine.<\/p>\n

That very quickly shifted to, \u2018Down with the communist party\u2019 and \u2018Down with Xi Jinping\u2019, because everyone knows deep down that Covid-zero policy is a product of the communist party and is basically determined by one man\u2019s will.<\/p>\n

According to protesters I\u2019ve spoken to, there are many different factions. Not everyone has the same political aspirations. Moderate people just want to change the Covid-zero policy, while other people think we need a new government and we need a new leader. It\u2019s like the Hong Kong protest or like any other mass struggle: there is a range of opinions and thoughts.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: And especially, as you said, with women being at the forefront, I\u2019m sure there are reasons for that. There are additional grievances that Chinese women would be feeling with the three-child policy, for example\u2014this pressure to bear children, not being represented politically. Also just not being able to express themselves, especially the feminist movement in China, which has received continuous crackdowns during the years.<\/p>\n

And then there are ethnic minority groups that have been suffering for many, many years that would have grievances against Han Chinese that haven\u2019t been so vocal about what was going on in Xinjiang, for example, and haven\u2019t been really able to support Uyghurs against CCP oppression. Do you think that\u2019s affecting coordination within the protest movements?<\/p>\n

Xu: I think you\u2019re completely right. There are women who feel as if the protest itself is not pro-women, and there are Uyghurs who have grievances that being locked up in concentration camps has never sparked the same kind of anger among mainland Chinese people. There definitely are factions. Overall, many protesters seem to realise that they have to work with each other. The protesters seem to be borrowing a lot of lessons from the 2019 Hong Kong protests. The word in Mandarin is \u2018\u4e0d\u5272\u5e2d\u2019, or \u2018do not split\u2019 in English. Basically, they try to stay united and they don\u2019t divide themselves. That is extremely important.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: Has the reaction of the Chinese authorities been milder than people might have expected so far, and why that might be the case?<\/p>\n

Xu: So far, many students have been arrested. Some have been released. Some have been sent to quarantine centres. The security apparatus seems to be struggling to keep up with suppressing the protests. For example, we are seeing a lot of recruitment ads for auxiliary police. It seems like police officers have been playing catch-up. In Shanghai, police officers are getting onto subways and checking people\u2019s phones, one by one, to see if they have any anti-revolutionary material on their phones.<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know yet what\u2019s going to happen, because this is developing. We don\u2019t yet know how the communist party at the highest level is interpreting the events. It\u2019s likely that foreign forces would be blamed again, as though the Chinese people cannot possibly have their own agency and cannot possibly want a different government. I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if, in a month or two months\u2019 time, all the protesters would be accused of colluding with the CIA.<\/p>\n

Personally, I\u2019m really, really afraid for the protesters because they\u2019re really brave, but a lot of them are not wearing a mask. They\u2019re on the front line, they\u2019re not really thinking about their personal safety, and they\u2019re getting into these physical struggles with the police. Personally, I wish protesters could do more to protect themselves and their faces. But again, people have different opinions on this.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: I had been thinking about this as well. There are several groups within China that are so used to being persecuted by the party-state that they would be so extremely careful with their identity. I think because this movement is broader than that, and it involves people who haven\u2019t had that experience of community organising, they maybe don\u2019t fully grasp the extent of the consequences.<\/p>\n

Xu: I totally agree with you, Daria. People are inexperienced with activism and with how far the communist party would go to surveil and crack down. All over the world, Chinese students are organising protests to echo what\u2019s happening in China. There are these large group chats where people are organising. Last week, I suggested to a group of students that they should try to wear a mask and protect themselves. Several people challenged my viewpoint and said if people in China are not wearing a mask, why would people outside China be worried that they\u2019re being surveilled? They find it quite lame. Maybe compared to them I\u2019m just too old and conservative now. I don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: They\u2019re just going all in. Maybe they feel there\u2019s not much to lose at this point?<\/p>\n

Xu: Yeah, they\u2019re going all in.<\/p>\n

Impiombato: Last question to wrap our conversation up: Do you think this movement is going anywhere? Is there any chance of change? Is the government going to loosen the Covid policies? Is it going to give in to any other requests?<\/p>\n

Xu: The most honest answer I can give you is that I don\u2019t know. Two weeks ago, if you asked me or asked any of the protesters\u2014is it possible that Chinese people would be so fed up with Covid zero and with Xi Jinping that they would take to the streets to protest? Everyone would tell you that you\u2019re crazy. But now the protests have happened and it has spread like wildfire.<\/p>\n

Maybe there\u2019s something there that everybody has just missed. Maybe the anger and frustration will be enough to cause real political change. Some people are speculating that maybe there are factional differences within the communist party, which is why the protests so far have been largely tolerated. And that\u2019s possible too. We just don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n

I wish the protestors would gain something. I wish there would be significant changes and, at the very least, the Covid restrictions would drop. We don\u2019t know, but I wish the protesters all the best.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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