{"id":77007,"date":"2022-12-08T12:30:56","date_gmt":"2022-12-08T01:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=77007"},"modified":"2022-12-08T12:13:05","modified_gmt":"2022-12-08T01:13:05","slug":"chinas-zero-covid-mess","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-zero-covid-mess\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s zero-Covid mess"},"content":{"rendered":"
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China has lately experienced its largest and most politically charged protests<\/a> since the pro-democracy movement in 1989 ended in a massacre by government forces on Tiananmen Square. The recent social eruption should not be surprising; frustrations over the Chinese government\u2019s rigid zero-Covid policy have been brewing for a long time. Yet the ruling Chinese Communist Party apparently did not see the protests coming, despite operating an all-pervasive and deeply intrusive surveillance apparatus. Now, the central government has announced that it will accelerate the shift away from zero-Covid with a broad easing of restrictions. After publishing a set of 20 guidelines for officials to follow last month, it has now cut the list down to 10<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Faced with the protests, President Xi Jinping\u2019s government eschewed brutal Tiananmen-style suppression of the demonstrations. While large numbers of police have been deployed<\/a> to protest sites, they have avoided bloody \u2018crowd-control\u2019 tactics and mass arrests, preferring instead to identify and intimidate protesters using cell-phone tracking technology. But CCP leaders also warned<\/a> that a \u2018resolute crackdown\u2019 was coming. According to Chen Wenqing, the CCP\u2019s newly installed domestic security chief, the authorities will target \u2018infiltration and sabotage activities by hostile forces\u2019 and \u2018illegal and criminal acts that disrupt social order\u2019.<\/p>\n

While China\u2019s government has sent a relatively clear message about the fate of the protests, its stance on zero-Covid has been hazy and inconsistent, with restrictions being relaxed<\/a> only in some cities<\/a>, such as Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Shanghai. In recent days, the phrase \u2018dynamic zero-Covid<\/a>\u2019 (dongtai qingling<\/em>) seemed to disappear from state-run media.<\/p>\n

Still, uncertainty reigned, because no senior Chinese official had publicly stated that the zero-tolerance approach is being fully abandoned. Instead, Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, who is overseeing the pandemic response, has acknowledged<\/a> the \u2018weakening severity of the Omicron variant\u2019 and said that the fight against Covid-19 was entering a \u2018new phase\u2019.<\/p>\n

With little direction from above, local governments have been adopting widely different policies. For example, though Shanghai\u2019s municipal government announced an easing<\/a> of some rules\u2014as of 5 December, a negative Covid test was no longer be required<\/a> to take public transportation or visit parks\u2014it has again shut down<\/a> the recently reopened Disneyland.<\/p>\n

Chinese leaders\u2019 refusal to take a clear stance on zero-Covid is pure politics. The central government has been reluctant to take responsibility for the decision, because policymakers do not want to be blamed for whatever surge in infections, hospitalisations and deaths follows a reopening. The new guidelines may be looser than what came before, but they do not necessarily represent an end to zero-Covid.<\/p>\n

Local officials have been playing politics too. If they have been relaxing pandemic restrictions, it\u2019s because they believe that doing so will serve their interests well enough to merit the risk to public health. If they have stuck with harsher restrictions, it reflects their calculation that the immediate hit to their popularity would be dwarfed by the impact of becoming a scapegoat for any wave of cases.<\/p>\n

But perhaps the clearest and most worrying evidence of the politicisation of public-health decisions is the Chinese authorities\u2019 refusal to approve<\/a> the more effective mRNA vaccines produced by Western companies. Though these vaccines would help to make the departure from zero-Covid safer, especially for under-vaccinated<\/a> elderly Chinese, China\u2019s leaders apparently view the use of Western vaccines as a blow to national pride and an admission of past mistakes.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, China\u2019s leaders can probably count on the security forces to snuff out new protests, thereby allowing the CCP to reassert control and downplay people\u2019s frustrations. But the reluctance to devise a comprehensive and systematic exit strategy from Covid\u2014and to take responsibility for its outcomes\u2014could result in China experiencing the worst of both worlds.<\/p>\n

If there\u2019s still confusion over Xi\u2019s commitment to zero-Covid and the central government\u2019s reopening plans, that will produce a chaotic response at the local level and the continued enforcement of ever-changing pandemic restrictions will strain state attention and resources, while stoking popular frustration. At the same time, a loosening of restrictions that is not accompanied by effective public-health measures\u2014such as a rapid mass immunisation campaign using Western vaccines\u2014will send infection rates soaring, overwhelming China\u2019s healthcare system.<\/p>\n

Xi needs to act fast to avert this outcome, not least by ordering the immediate approval and import of mRNA vaccines. Such a move would demonstrate not only political courage but also political savvy, because it would go a long way towards repairing the damage done to Xi\u2019s image by the anti-lockdown protests that rocked his government at the end of last month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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