{"id":77012,"date":"2022-12-08T14:45:09","date_gmt":"2022-12-08T03:45:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=77012"},"modified":"2022-12-08T14:38:17","modified_gmt":"2022-12-08T03:38:17","slug":"intelligence-agencys-1981-assessment-of-climate-change-threat-was-remarkably-accurate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/intelligence-agencys-1981-assessment-of-climate-change-threat-was-remarkably-accurate\/","title":{"rendered":"Intelligence agency\u2019s 1981 assessment of climate-change threat was remarkably accurate"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Australia\u2019s national intelligence agency has released a report that \u2018examines the implications of the increasing accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels, with special reference to Australia as a producer and exporter of coal\u2019. It flags that \u2018major economic and social adjustments\u2019 are going to be required as a result.<\/p>\n

Actually, the declassified study, Fossil fuels and the greenhouse effect<\/a>,<\/em> was produced 41 years ago by the Office of National Assessments. The timing is right to revisit its findings because ONA\u2019s successor, the Office of National Intelligence, has just completed work on a new classified climate and security risk assessment<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Drawing on the relatively immature climate science available at the time, the 1981 assessment predicted CO2<\/sub> levels of 600 parts per million by 2050 and 1,200 by 2100. In a series of scenarios, the authors showed how these two- and four-fold increases in CO2<\/sub> (relative to pre-industrial levels) were correlated with temperature rises of 2\u00b0C to 3\u00b0C and 4\u00b0C to 6\u00b0C, respectively. The assessment noted that the level of damage and disruption expected under the 2100 scenario \u2018would probably induce international pressure to limit the use of fossil fuels \u2026 by the turn of the [20th] century\u2019.<\/p>\n

These estimates hold up well. While we are on a trajectory to remain below<\/a> the CO2<\/sub> concentrations flagged in the 1981 assessment, the temperature ranges cited were surprisingly accurate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019s most recently published estimates<\/a>, using a middle-of-the-road emissions scenario, give a 2\u00b0C \u2018best estimate\u2019 for 2041\u20132060, and a 2.1\u00b0C to 3.5\u00b0C \u2018very likely\u2019 range for 2081\u20132100. The most pessimistic and least emissions-constrained scenario canvassed in the IPCC sixth assessment report has a \u2018very likely\u2019 range of 3.3\u00b0C to 5.7\u00b0C by the end of this century.<\/p>\n

And while we are not progressing<\/a> rapidly enough to meet the Paris agreement\u2019s goal of keeping warming below 1.5\u00b0C to 2\u00b0C, through action to date we may have avoided that most catastrophic end-of-century scenario.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding the often misleading and disingenuous public debate about the state of climate science and uncertainty, it\u2019s worth noting how remarkably consistent the findings of the 1981 assessment and the latest IPCC report are.<\/p>\n

The 1981 assessment\u2019s projection of the impacts in 2050 is sanguine, noting there will be benefits and disadvantages in equal measure. In contrast, it describes its more extreme 2100 scenario of 4\u20136\u00b0C of warming as \u2018disturbing\u2019 and entailing \u2018massive and unacceptable changes\u2019.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Source: <\/em>Fossil fuels and the greenhouse effect<\/a>, Office of National Assessments, 1981.<\/em><\/p>\n

We now understand the regional variation in impacts with much greater fidelity<\/a>, and the 1981 assessment\u2019s judgement that \u2018advanced countries with good scientific, technical and administrative infrastructure\u2019 will be better placed to cope remains valid<\/a>. Less developed countries are already bearing a disproportionate weight of climate impacts with less capacity to prepare and respond.<\/p>\n

But the same multi-disciplinary research that the assessment authors noted was needed and had \u2018hardly begun\u2019 in 1981, today suggests a much more pessimistic picture of our global and regional future. Climate change has dire interacting and compounding<\/a> impacts even at lower levels of warming. We also face the prospect of crossing dangerous<\/a> thresholds<\/a> even within the 2\u00b0C range of warming.<\/p>\n

The 1981 assessment of the energy implications of climate change was less accurate; nuclear power has not emerged in Australia as a pillar of the transition away from fossil fuels. On the other hand, the authors were correct in concluding that solar and wind generation would emerge as the mainstays of the global energy transition<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Bureaucratic understatement was a feature of intelligence assessments then as much as now. The authors summarise the difficult politics and psychology of climate change as a threat: \u2018Perhaps because the problem is merely the gradual increase of a non-poisonous substance which has always been present, public alarm will only be generated by manifest change, or a threat of it.\u2019 Indeed.<\/p>\n

The assessment itself is evidence of these difficult politics. Delivered to the Coalition government led by Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser, the report is, not surprisingly, focused on Australa\u2019s fossil fuel resources. ONA Director-General Michael Cook concludes his executive summary of the assessment by noting: \u2018[T]here are potentially adverse implications from these developments (if realised) for the security of Australia\u2019s export markets for coal beyond the end of the next century.\u2019<\/p>\n

This judgement has, clearly, held true. The \u2018adverse implications\u2019 of these forecasts for coal production are now both unavoidable and necessary. Yet, despite our acute understanding of the severe consequences of further emissions, many still perceive this as only a distant threat. The possibility that natural gas and oil derivatives might supplant Australian coal exports, as suggested in the assessment, has also yet to eventuate\u2014instead, our supplies of both coal and gas dramatically<\/a> expanded<\/a>. Globally, the COP27 climate conference in Egypt just concluded without firm agreement<\/a> on phasing out fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

The climate and security work that ONI is now doing has the benefit of drawing on a vast and deep scientific literature and community that were unavailable in 1981. That said, there remains today a relative paucity of work on the societal and economic impacts of the physical changes we know are occurring and deepening.<\/p>\n

One lesson we might learn from this four-decade-old publication is the need for greater public discussion about the threat. It isn\u2019t clear if the government intends to publish an unclassified version or summary of the 2022 ONI assessment, but it ought to. As the climate continues to warm in the years ahead, systemic climate impacts, especially in Australia\u2019s near region<\/a>, will increasingly become one of the key structural determinants of our strategic environment. It would be immensely helpful to know how the Australian national security community is thinking about that challenge. Sharing that information would also be an important step in justifying the extensive work that is going to be required by governments to prepare Australians for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n

If nothing else, we can\u2019t say we weren\u2019t told.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia\u2019s national intelligence agency has released a report that \u2018examines the implications of the increasing accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels, with special reference to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1519,"featured_media":77017,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,1576,283,1717,1294,170],"class_list":["post-77012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-security","tag-environment","tag-intelligence"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIntelligence agency\u2019s 1981 assessment of climate-change threat was remarkably accurate | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/intelligence-agencys-1981-assessment-of-climate-change-threat-was-remarkably-accurate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Intelligence agency\u2019s 1981 assessment of climate-change threat was remarkably accurate | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia\u2019s national intelligence agency has released a report that \u2018examines the implications of the increasing accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels, with special reference to ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/intelligence-agencys-1981-assessment-of-climate-change-threat-was-remarkably-accurate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-12-08T03:45:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-08T03:38:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1238843691.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"William Leben\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"William Leben\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/intelligence-agencys-1981-assessment-of-climate-change-threat-was-remarkably-accurate\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1238843691.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1238843691.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"TOPSHOT - A family stays next to a flooded street in Lawrence, some 70 kms from the New South Wales town of Lismore, on March 1, 2022. 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