{"id":77080,"date":"2022-12-12T11:30:39","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T00:30:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=77080"},"modified":"2022-12-16T16:15:04","modified_gmt":"2022-12-16T05:15:04","slug":"the-tough-security-outlook-for-the-indo-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-tough-security-outlook-for-the-indo-pacific\/","title":{"rendered":"The tough security outlook for the Indo-Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Here\u2019s the \u2018darkening\u2019 security outlook for the Indo-Pacific for 2023.<\/p>\n

The US worries, \u2018Will China let us have peace?\u2019<\/p>\n

Japan finds itself at the security crossroads due to \u2018the resurgence of great power competition\u2019.<\/p>\n

Canada frets that the Washington consensus on \u2018the existential threat\u2019 from China means that \u2018Canada\u2019s options to engage with China are limited\u2019.<\/p>\n

India seeks a new global balance because \u2018the Sino-American partnership that allowed [Asia] to develop and progress in peace for almost five decades has collapsed\u2019.<\/p>\n

\u2018Dubious of America\u2019s long term strategic commitment\u2019 to Southeast Asia, Thailand \u2018is leaning closer and closer toward China\u2019.<\/p>\n

Singapore sees the US girding for \u2018a concerted effort with its major allies to degrade China\u2019s capabilities to challenge America\u2019s global pre-eminence\u2019.<\/p>\n

For Vietnam, the fraught regional order will be marked by \u2018competition instead of cooperation\u2019, \u2018polarisation instead of globalisation\u2019, and \u2018decoupling instead of integration\u2019.<\/p>\n

A voice from Myanmar that can\u2019t be named speaks of two years of \u2018turmoil and conflict\u2019 following the military coup, the junta\u2019s \u2018escalating oppression\u2019 and the \u2018spontaneous courage\u2019 of the people.<\/p>\n

Mongolia has \u2018giants on every horizon\u2019.<\/p>\n

The line from New Zealand is, \u2018It\u2019s grim out there.\u2019<\/p>\n

The national perspectives are from the Regional security outlook 2023<\/em><\/a>, published by the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific<\/a>. CSCAP is the unofficial \u2018track two\u2019 counterpart to the official \u2018track one\u2019 work of the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Defence Ministers\u2014Plus Forum.<\/p>\n

The outlook\u2019s editor, Ron Huisken, heads his introduction, \u2018Open season on the rules-based order\u2019, noting that for nearly two decades \u2018the international community had sensed the gradual but relentless erosion of confidence in the principles, conventions, and processes designed to foster stability and peace\u2019. CSCAP\u2019s annual survey has tracked that trend, along with \u2018the spectacular surge in China\u2019s strategic weight toward parity with the US\u2019.<\/p>\n

A notable gap in this year\u2019s edition: for the first time in 15 years, there\u2019s no chapter offering a view from China. The absence suggests that China\u2019s second track is waiting for the first track to draw conclusions and decide the fresh line from Xi Jinping\u2019s summitry<\/a> at the G20 and APEC. Perhaps Xi will want warmer words and less warrior wolfing.<\/p>\n

The chance for new thoughts underlines Huisken\u2019s call to \u2018simply lower the barriers to easier communication. All parties must project a willingness to learn and to understand.\u2019<\/p>\n

A similar point came from last week\u2019s Australia\u2013US ministerial<\/a> meeting in Washington, which emphasised \u2018the importance of all countries managing strategic competition responsibly\u2019. The US and Australia pledged to \u2018work together to ensure competition does not escalate into conflict\u2019 and said they \u2018look to the People\u2019s Republic of China to do the same and plan to engage Beijing on risk reduction and transparency measures\u2019.<\/p>\n

Washington wants to \u2018build a floor\u2019 with China and define some \u2018red lines<\/a>\u2019. Canberra has cracked<\/a> the diplomatic freeze<\/a> and wants Beijing to keep talking to \u2018stabilise\u2019<\/a> relations.<\/p>\n

AUSMIN offers the communiqu\u00e9-language version of apprehension, as the US and Australia pledge defence and security cooperation \u2018to deter aggression, counter coercion, and make space for sovereign decision making\u2019.<\/p>\n

The Labor government\u2019s response to \u2018uncertain and more precarious<\/a>\u2019 times is a stronger alignment with the US. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles says the strategic landscape<\/a> \u2018is as complex and precarious as it\u2019s been at any point really since the end of the Second World War\u2019. The alliance, he says, has \u2018never been more important\u2019 and has \u2018never been in better shape, and that\u2019s a big thing to say because the alliance has always been in very good shape\u2019.<\/p>\n

It\u2019ll be difficult to get a Laborite as enthusiastic and as knowledgeable about the alliance as Kim Beazley<\/a>, but Marles may be that man, as he avers:\u00a0 \u2018Australia’s most important relationship is its alliance with the United States. It is essential to our worldview, it is completely central to our national security.\u2019<\/p>\n

Foreign Minister Penny Wong pointed to three areas where Australia collaboration with the US \u2018has a different approach and an enhanced emphasis\u2019: action on climate change; a focus on Southeast Asia and the importance of ASEAN; and the South Pacific.<\/p>\n

No recent AUSMIN communiqu\u00e9 has devoted as much wordage to the South Pacific, as the US starts to build the sinews to do more lifting in the region.<\/p>\n

Joe Biden\u2019s administration has sent a big \u2018We\u2019re back!<\/a>\u2019 message to the islands, holding its first summit with South Pacific leaders in Washington in September. AUSMIN offers detail. The communiqu\u00e9 promised a \u2018redoubled\u2019 commitment to working with the islands, guided by Pacific priorities of climate change, resilient infrastructure, maritime security, dealing with disasters and supporting the Pacific Islands Forum.<\/p>\n

The US offers more diplomatic missions, the return of Peace Corps volunteers and extra maritime surveillance, and the US Coast Guard promises training for maritime security to \u2018enhance the benefits the Pacific Islands derive from the Australian-gifted Guardian-class Patrol Boat fleet\u2019. The statement said the US and Australia would \u2018do more to dispose of unexploded ordnance\u2019 from World War II that still threatens nine island nations<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The US can no longer leave Melanesia and Polynesia to Australia and New Zealand, a\u00a0division of responsibilities<\/a>\u00a0that worked well for 50 years.<\/p>\n

Australia wants the US back in the game in the South Pacific, because China has changed the game. The outlook for great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific flows through to more contest in the South Pacific.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s the \u2018darkening\u2019 security outlook for the Indo-Pacific for 2023. The US worries, \u2018Will China let us have peace?\u2019 Japan finds itself at the security crossroads due to \u2018the resurgence of great power competition\u2019. Canada …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":77084,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2047,294,56,99,2397],"class_list":["post-77080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-us-relations","tag-diplomacy","tag-indo-pacific","tag-south-pacific","tag-us-alliances"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe tough security outlook for the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-tough-security-outlook-for-the-indo-pacific\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The tough security outlook for the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Here\u2019s the \u2018darkening\u2019 security outlook for the Indo-Pacific for 2023. 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