{"id":77221,"date":"2022-12-19T11:00:57","date_gmt":"2022-12-19T00:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=77221"},"modified":"2022-12-19T10:49:17","modified_gmt":"2022-12-18T23:49:17","slug":"kishidas-difficult-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/kishidas-difficult-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Kishida\u2019s difficult year"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The past year has not been good for Japan, or for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s government. Japan has faced a dramatically deteriorating global and regional\u00a0security environment<\/a>\u00a0and a perfect storm of challenges on the home front, including the Covid-19 pandemic, soaring inflation and the ramifications of the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe on 8 July.<\/p>\n

Kishida initially touted himself as \u2018the leader that this era needs\u2019. He began with high approval ratings and a packed policy agenda. But by October, support for his government had\u00a0plummeted<\/a>\u00a0to below 30%, with one popular magazine\u00a0describing<\/a>\u00a0the public as \u2018increasingly disgusted with Kishida\u2019s lack of leadership\u2019. Previous prime ministers, such as Kishida\u2019s predecessor Yoshihide Suga, resigned with approval ratings this low.<\/p>\n

As for the Kishida cabinet, the news was equally bad, with an\u00a0approval rating<\/a>\u00a0of just 31% in November. This followed a series of\u00a0ministerial departures<\/a>\u00a0likened to falling dominoes. The fate of another minister currently\u00a0hangs in the balance<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The nature and extent of ties between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Unification Church have slowly been revealed since Abe\u2019s death. The issue prompted a cabinet reshuffle in August, with multiple ministers disclosing links to the church and\u00a0Kishida\u2019s instruction<\/a>\u00a0to ruling party members to sever any such connections. It still took five months for the government to produce legislation to prevent the kind of\u00a0financial exploitation<\/a>\u00a0that motivated Abe\u2019s killer.<\/p>\n

The prime minister\u2019s \u2018leading by listening<\/a>\u2019 has given way to reports that he\u00a0no longer heeds the advice<\/a>\u00a0of those around him, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno. Kishida lacks two critical support structures. The first is a \u2018watchdog\u2019 to protect him and lay the policy groundwork\u2014the role that former prime minister Suga played for Abe. The second is Kishida\u2019s lack of a strong protective supporter, particularly since the death of Abe, whom Kishida relied on as a sounding board, adviser and internal party influencer.<\/p>\n

The result is a dysfunctional Prime Minister\u2019s Office and an administration under pressure because of declining support rates. Even October\u2019s comprehensive economic stimulus package designed to counter the\u00a0weak yen<\/a>\u00a0and rising prices\u00a0didn\u2019t restore public confidence<\/a>\u00a0in the administration. Consumer prices (excluding those of food) have risen by nearly 4% in a year while annual earnings have increased by only 3% in 20 years.\u00a0OECD statistics<\/a>\u00a0now put Japan\u2019s annual per capita income 11th from the bottom among 34 comparable member countries.<\/p>\n

Kishida\u2019s paradigm-shifting economic policy initiatives, touted early in his administration, such as rejecting neoliberalism and building a \u2018new model of capitalism for Japan\u2019, remain unrealised. Early on, Kishida\u00a0appeared willing<\/a>\u00a0to interfere in the free market, but building a broad middle class through\u00a0income redistribution<\/a>, a reduction in economic inequality and increased wages has been elusive. Nor have there been major advances on key measures such as regulatory reform and raising labour productivity.<\/p>\n

Kishida\u2019s administration is generally behaving just like its predecessors\u2014prioritising\u00a0short-term spending boosts<\/a>\u00a0over structural reforms.<\/p>\n

Shortcomings on the home front have been counterbalanced by the prime minister\u2019s\u00a0busy diplomatic schedule<\/a>,\u00a0including amicable meetings with South Korea\u2019s President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the prospect of a\u00a0new Japan\u2013China defence hotline<\/a>\u00a0in 2023. Relations with Taiwan are also expanding\u00a0at the political level<\/a>, continuing Abe\u2019s legacy.<\/p>\n

Another focus has been promoting Abe\u2019s free and open Indo-Pacific initiative, but the most pressing strategic challenges have been the\u00a0increased threat level<\/a>\u00a0to Japanese security from North Korean ballistic missiles, a more belligerent Russia, the extraordinary expansion in Chinese military power and China\u2019s\u00a0growing assertiveness in the region<\/a>. The result has been a major rethink of Japanese defence policy, with the government approving revisions to\u00a0three key national security documents<\/a>. The\u00a0new national security strategy<\/a>\u00a0now designates Russia as a \u2018potential threat\u2019 and China as \u2018the greatest strategic challenge ever faced\u2019.<\/p>\n

In a major advancement in defence capability, Japan will\u00a0accelerate its acquisition<\/a>\u00a0of counterstrike missiles as part of an integrated air- and missile-defence system enabling \u2018punitive deterrence<\/a>\u2019. This will include purchasing 500 US precision-guided Tomahawk cruise missiles as a\u00a0stop-gap measure<\/a>\u00a0until Japan can develop its own standoff missiles, as well as plans to work with the United States on a\u00a0joint counterattack capability plan<\/a> and potential cooperation during deployment.<\/p>\n

The issue of dramatically increasing Japan\u2019s defence expenditure, however, has been highly contested\u00a0even within the LDP<\/a>. Kishida has pledged \u00a543 trillion ($470 billion) in defence expenditure over five years\u00a0to fiscal 2027<\/a>\u2014a rise of more than 50%, or 2% of GDP\u2014but objections have been raised to each and every alternative to fund the increase. In the end, the LDP\u00a0approved a basic framework of tax hikes<\/a>\u00a0involving income and corporate tax surcharges, and an increase in the tobacco tax.<\/p>\n

It has been a difficult year for Kishida despite the \u2018fresh start<\/a>\u2019 he got with the LDP\u2019s sweeping victory in July\u2019s upper house elections, the slight uptick in\u00a0support for the cabinet<\/a>\u00a0in December and the continuing endorsement of all factions for his leadership. Next year will be no easier, with local government elections scheduled in April and big issues on the table such as mounting security challenges, a\u00a0declining birth rate<\/a>\u00a0and obstacles to economic reform.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The past year has not been good for Japan, or for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s government. Japan has faced a dramatically deteriorating global and regional\u00a0security environment\u00a0and a perfect storm of challenges on the home front, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1649,"featured_media":77223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2015,3257,135,301,192],"class_list":["post-77221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-domestic-politics","tag-fumio-kishida","tag-japan","tag-national-security-2","tag-public-opinion"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKishida\u2019s difficult year | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/kishidas-difficult-year\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kishida\u2019s difficult year | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The past year has not been good for Japan, or for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s government. 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