{"id":77804,"date":"2023-02-08T14:30:47","date_gmt":"2023-02-08T03:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=77804"},"modified":"2023-02-08T14:25:58","modified_gmt":"2023-02-08T03:25:58","slug":"tipping-the-scales-in-myanmars-civil-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/tipping-the-scales-in-myanmars-civil-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Tipping the scales in Myanmar\u2019s civil war"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Conflicts within and between countries take many forms, but they\u2019re always about power. That\u2019s as true for the brutal military coup<\/a> that toppled Myanmar\u2019s elected government two years ago as it is for Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine. But while Ukraine\u2019s plight has dominated world headlines and attracted billions of dollars in military equipment and other assistance, Myanmar\u2019s subjugation from within has gone largely unnoticed by outsiders, and the civilian opposition has received little support.<\/p>\n

To be sure, Southeast Asia is a coup-prone region. Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines all endured \u2018coup eras\u2019 before settling on roughly democratic trajectories, albeit with autocratic characteristics. Thailand has endured two putsches since 2006 and has yet to achieve a political bargain that can break the military\u2019s and monarchy\u2019s joint hold on power<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But Myanmar tops the lot. Its generals seized power<\/a> in 1962. While direct military rule eventually gave way to constitutional dictatorship<\/a>, it was not until 2011 that the military junta was officially dissolved and a nominally civilian government established<\/a>. Even then, however, the military, under General Thein Sein\u2019s leadership, retained<\/a> key levers of power.<\/p>\n

During the ensuing decade, Myanmar experienced political liberalisation, economic reform and real progress on development. As foreign investment<\/a> poured in, businesses flourished and embassies were established, the country seemed increasingly eager to leave military rule in the past. Consecutive elections\u2014in 2015 and 2020\u2014boosted civilian power, as Aung San Suu Kyi\u2019s National League for Democracy (NLD) secured landslide victories<\/a> over the military\u2019s Union Solidarity and Development Party.<\/p>\n

After languishing for decades in dictatorship and despair, Myanmar\u2019s ethnically diverse society\u2014especially its younger cohort\u2014saw the glimmer of a more prosperous, democratic future. But their hopes were dashed in February 2021\u2014less than three months after the country\u2019s last election\u2014when the commander-in-chief of the country\u2019s armed forces, General Min Aung Hlaing, staged a new coup<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But, this time, Myanmar\u2019s people did not acquiesce. Immediately after the coup, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets to protest<\/a> the military takeover. As the months went on, the military junta blacked out<\/a> the internet, declared martial law<\/a> and initiated a violent security crackdown: the regime has reportedly killed nearly 3,000 civilians<\/a> and arrested nearly 17,000<\/a>. But the people continued to resist.<\/p>\n

Within days of the coup, the protesters joined forces<\/a> with a committee representing the NLD members of parliament who had been elected in the previous poll. This led to the formation<\/a>, in April, of the National Unity Government (NUG), which includes members of the NLD, other parties and independents. Working in tandem with the National Unity Consultative Council, the NUG promotes<\/a> a vision of an inclusive, civilian-led government that serves the Bamar majority<\/a> and ethnic minorities alike.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Myanmar\u2019s ethnic armed organisations, particularly the Karen near the border with Thailand and the Kachin in the north, began pursuing open combat operations<\/a> against Myanmar\u2019s battle-hardened military. Then, in May, the NUG\u2019s armed wing<\/a>, the People\u2019s Defence Force, was formed\u2014a remarkable display of defiance by Myanmar\u2019s young people, who make up the majority of the force\u2019s local militias. Unwilling to give up the freedom that was denied to their forebears, they took up rudimentary, often homemade arms<\/a> and began, together with the ethnic armed groups, to fight.<\/p>\n

Despite no central command structure or international support, the ragtag militias have become increasingly coordinated and skilful in their use of guerrilla-style tactics<\/a>, and have begun carrying out targeted assassinations. And, given widespread support for their cause, their ranks are growing<\/a>. The ethnic armed organisations, for their part, are carrying on the fight in their enclaves.<\/p>\n

Myanmar\u2019s military still has the advantage in terms of armour, artillery and airpower. But the determined resistance that Myanmar\u2019s people have mounted has prevented the junta from gaining full power over the country, roughly half of which is currently controlled<\/a> by the opposition alliance. While the military can generate enough cash to sustain its patchy rule by selling natural resources<\/a>, Myanmar\u2019s civil war has become a stalemate<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So far, the international community has done little to help Myanmar\u2019s people, even as they have endured a humanitarian crisis<\/a> that recalls the country\u2019s darkest days of dictatorship. Yes, sanctions<\/a> have been imposed and condemnations issued. But China backs<\/a> the junta, to which Russia supplies<\/a> arms. Even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations\u2014which includes Myanmar\u2014has been ineffectual<\/a> and done little to bring about peaceful dialogue.<\/p>\n

Rather than remaining effectively complicit in the junta\u2019s crimes against its own people, the international community should recognise<\/a> the NUG, which has proved itself to be a viable government, able to provide political direction and raise revenue from both domestic supporters and the diaspora. Given that the civil war will ultimately be won and lost on the battlefield, it also means arming the opposition with defensive weapons, particularly portable anti-aircraft capabilities, which would neutralise the punishing airstrikes<\/a> that have often claimed civilian lives.<\/p>\n

Myanmar\u2019s people are putting their lives on the line to take back a future stolen from them by a heinous regime. They deserve the international community\u2019s support, just as Ukraine\u2019s defenders do.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Conflicts within and between countries take many forms, but they\u2019re always about power. That\u2019s as true for the brutal military coup that toppled Myanmar\u2019s elected government two years ago as it is for Russia\u2019s war …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1162,"featured_media":77809,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[838,106,2364,212],"class_list":["post-77804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-civil-war","tag-democracy","tag-military-capability","tag-myanmar"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTipping the scales in Myanmar\u2019s civil war | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/tipping-the-scales-in-myanmars-civil-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tipping the scales in Myanmar\u2019s civil war | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conflicts within and between countries take many forms, but they\u2019re always about power. 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