{"id":77959,"date":"2023-02-21T15:00:01","date_gmt":"2023-02-21T04:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=77959"},"modified":"2023-02-21T14:31:17","modified_gmt":"2023-02-21T03:31:17","slug":"what-if-putins-plan-for-a-quick-victory-in-ukraine-had-succeeded","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-if-putins-plan-for-a-quick-victory-in-ukraine-had-succeeded\/","title":{"rendered":"What if Putin\u2019s plan for a quick victory in Ukraine had succeeded?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn\u2019t met any of the strategic objectives he alluded to when he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago. In fact, no reasonable person can deny that the war so far has been a complete debacle for Russia.<\/p>\n

Still, it\u2019s worth considering the counterfactual. What if Russian forces hadn\u2019t bungled the invasion? Where would we be now if the Ukrainian resistance had collapsed, or if the West had responded not with unity but with confusion and disarray?<\/p>\n

Through quick, decisive action by special forces\u2014and perhaps with the help of collaborators on the ground\u2014Russia would have gained control of Kyiv within a day or two, proceeded to install a puppet government and held victory parades. In this scenario, Ukraine\u2019s duly elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, most likely would have been murdered by Russian special forces or incarcerated after a swift trial. At best, he would be leading a government in exile from Warsaw or somewhere else.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the flow of refugees fleeing the country would have been an order of magnitude larger than it was. There would now be perhaps 20 million Ukrainians scattered across Europe and the West, dwarfing all other recent global refugee crises combined.<\/p>\n

Aside from a handful of rogue countries, no one would have recognised the puppet authorities in Kyiv. In due time, they would probably simply disappear as Ukraine was incorporated into Russia as a collection of new federal districts. Ukraine as a political entity would have ceased to exist, returning to the status that it held under the Russian imperialism of the 19th century\u2014which seems to be Putin\u2019s model<\/a>. Still, most of the rest of the world would have continued to recognise a Ukrainian government in exile, and many would be prepared to lend it support for more or less open military operations against the Russian occupiers.<\/p>\n

The Russian effort to control Ukraine would have been exceedingly brutal. Judging by what happened<\/a> in Bucha, Irpin and many other Russian-occupied towns, there would have been summary executions of many thousands\u2014perhaps even tens of thousands\u2014of Ukrainian politicians, journalists, local officials and others. This isn\u2019t merely hypothetical: Russia already had long lists<\/a> of Ukrainian officials drawn up before it launched the invasion.<\/p>\n

Tens\u2014or hundreds\u2014of thousands of other Ukrainians would have been sent to so-called filtration camps<\/a>, where they would have been subject to interrogations, torture and brutal treatment by Russian security forces. In many cases, children would be separated from their parents and sent to Russia to have their Ukrainian heritage expunged through re-education<\/a>. Again, we know this because it is precisely what has happened in the few territories that Russia currently occupies.<\/p>\n

In this situation, the sanctions against Russia would probably be even more extensive than they already are, because it would have been much more difficult for countries like India and South Africa to justify their continued trade with the aggressor. Also, the direct costs associated with occupying Ukraine would have been enormous. Last September, Putin ordered a massive mobilisation<\/a> of Russian conscripts following the failure of the initial invasion\u2014and evidently is mobilising many more<\/a> for a possible spring offensive. But that would have been necessary even in the event of a successful operation, just to hold the country. With Ukrainians continuing to wage an insurgency, maintaining the Russian army\u2019s morale would have grown only more difficult with time.<\/p>\n

For the rest of Europe\u2014especially those countries nearer to Ukraine\u2014a successful Russian invasion would have introduced the imminent threat of further aggression against Moldova, Poland or the Baltic states. All these countries would be on full wartime footing, and a substantial number of US and other European forces would be permanently deployed to bolster their defences. The remaining Ukrainian forces would have retreated across the borders with Poland and other neighbouring countries, where they would remain fully determined to continue the fight. Europe today would be on the verge of a much, much larger war.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s decision to invade was truly insane. His war of aggression has been a massive strategic failure, and it\u2019s bound to get even worse for him. But this is no time for complacency or self-congratulation. Had Russia succeeded, it would have been an unmitigated disaster from every conceivable point of view. Continued support for Ukraine\u2019s defence of its freedom is essential to European security and to the preservation for all people of the bedrock principle of international law\u2014the prohibition of aggressive war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn\u2019t met any of the strategic objectives he alluded to when he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago. In fact, no reasonable person can deny that the war …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":527,"featured_media":77961,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[325,163,714,744,239],"class_list":["post-77959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-europe","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-warfare"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat if Putin\u2019s plan for a quick victory in Ukraine had succeeded? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-if-putins-plan-for-a-quick-victory-in-ukraine-had-succeeded\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What if Putin\u2019s plan for a quick victory in Ukraine had succeeded? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn\u2019t met any of the strategic objectives he alluded to when he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago. 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