{"id":78397,"date":"2023-03-16T12:40:34","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T01:40:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=78397"},"modified":"2023-03-16T12:41:10","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T01:41:10","slug":"how-china-lost-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"How China lost Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Since the dawn of international politics, smaller states have faced the formidable challenge of navigating great-power rivalries. Today, it is the geopolitical contest between the United States and China that has compelled countries to balance their competing national interests. Which side they gravitate towards depends on domestic and external circumstances.<\/p>\n

Consider the Philippines, which has an interest in maintaining both its growing economic ties with neighbouring China as well as its half-century-old security alliance with the US. Former president Rodrigo Duterte placed greater emphasis on the economy, turning the Philippines sharply away from the US and towards China after his election in 2016.<\/p>\n

In exchange for effectively siding with China in the escalating great-power competition, Duterte sought Chinese investment in his pet project\u2014the \u2018Build! Build! Build!\u2019 infrastructure program\u2014and moderation of China\u2019s aggressive behaviour in the West Philippine Sea, particularly its seizure of islets and outcroppings claimed by the Philippines. But China didn\u2019t oblige. When Duterte\u2019s presidency ended last June, China had delivered less than 5%<\/a> of the US$24 billion it had pledged to invest in the Philippines, and its provocations in the West Philippine Sea, which comprises part of the Philippines\u2019 exclusive economic zone, continued unabated.<\/p>\n

Duterte\u2019s successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, has so far taken a more prudent strategic approach. Deeply concerned<\/a> about the territorial disputes fuelled by Chinese claims in the South China Sea, Marcos has decided to reaffirm and enhance his country\u2019s partnership with the US.<\/p>\n

To that end, the Philippines has decided<\/a> to grant the US access to four more military bases\u2014for a total of nine\u2014some of which are located near disputed areas of the South China Sea. American troops rotate regularly through the designated bases. The US and the Philippines have also agreed to resume joint patrols in the South China Sea, which, under Duterte, were suspended for six years.<\/p>\n

Beyond the US, the Philippines and Japan recently agreed<\/a> to deepen defence ties, with Japanese troops securing greater access to Philippine territory for training and logistics. The Philippines is also pursuing greater maritime cooperation with the United Kingdom. The two countries held their inaugural maritime dialogue on 7 February. Two weeks later, the Philippine defence minister agreed with his Australian counterpart to formalise their \u2018strategic\u2019 defence engagement\u2014potentially including joint patrols in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

So, the Philippines is gradually becoming a key hub of military cooperation among Southeast Asia\u2019s democracies. This affords the US important strategic benefits\u2014for which China has only itself to blame. China\u2019s efforts to bully its neighbours into acquiescing to its demands and preferences have not only failed but have led to the emergence of a kind of anti-China coalition in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

This has certainly been the case in South Korea. After the country agreed in 2016 to deploy a US THAAD missile-defence system on its territory\u2014a response to escalating threats from North Korea\u2014China imposed heavy economic sanctions. With that, public opinion in South Korea turned sharply against China. Measured on a scale of 1 (most negative) to 100 (most positive), South Korean sentiment towards China now stands at 26.4\u2014two points less favourable than sentiment towards North Korea (28.6), according to a Hankook Research poll<\/a> conducted in 2021.<\/p>\n

Partly in response to public opinion, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, like Marcos, has sought to strengthen its alliance with the US. He is also working to improve long-strained relations with Japan, not least by announcing a plan<\/a> to compensate Koreans who performed forced labour under Japanese colonial rule during World War II.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s aggressive sanctions against Australia\u2014imposed in 2020 as punishment for the Australian government\u2019s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19\u2014spurred a similar foreign-policy reorientation. In September 2021, Australia formed<\/a> an \u2018enhanced security partnership\u2019, known as AUKUS, with the US and the UK. And Australia, India, Japan and the US have sought to strengthen the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.<\/p>\n

All of these steps aim to bolster security, but they also carry risks. In his 1995 book Diplomacy<\/a><\/em>, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger argued that it was Imperial German leaders\u2019 combination of \u2018truculence\u2019 and \u2018indecisiveness\u2019 that \u2018hurled their country first into isolation and then into war\u2019. In his view, World War I erupted partly because leaders were \u2018swayed by the emotions of the moment and hampered by an extraordinary lack of sensitivity to foreign psyches\u2019. A similar dynamic may be at play today.<\/p>\n

Ensuring that the dark history of the 20th century doesn\u2019t echo today will require sound judgement from both sides. China must recognise the fear it has incited with its bullying, and democracies across the Indo-Pacific must take care to ensure that their responses don\u2019t heighten tensions excessively. Otherwise, we may well sleepwalk into catastrophe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since the dawn of international politics, smaller states have faced the formidable challenge of navigating great-power rivalries. Today, it is the geopolitical contest between the United States and China that has compelled countries to balance …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":642,"featured_media":78399,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,135,71,370,211,2397],"class_list":["post-78397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-japan","tag-maritime-security","tag-philippines","tag-south-korea","tag-us-alliances"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow China lost Asia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How China lost Asia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since the dawn of international politics, smaller states have faced the formidable challenge of navigating great-power rivalries. Today, it is the geopolitical contest between the United States and China that has compelled countries to balance ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-16T01:40:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-03-16T01:41:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GettyImages-1247968725.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"682\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Yoon Young-kwan\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Yoon Young-kwan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GettyImages-1247968725.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GettyImages-1247968725.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":682,\"caption\":\"TOPSHOT - An aerial view taken on March 9, 2023 shows a cargo vessel docked at Thitu Island in the South China Sea. - As a Philippine Coast Guard plane carrying journalists flew over the Spratly Islands in the hotly disputed South China Sea, a Chinese voice issued a stern command over the radio: \\\"Leave immediately.\\\" (Photo by JAM STA ROSA \/ AFP) (Photo by JAM STA ROSA\/AFP via Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/\",\"name\":\"How China lost Asia | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-16T01:40:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-16T01:41:10+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/3a357ece9c054442eea35cda583bef31\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"How China lost Asia\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/3a357ece9c054442eea35cda583bef31\",\"name\":\"Yoon Young-kwan\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d64e8e7eef5b4f86bcaea763fc3b6ae3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d64e8e7eef5b4f86bcaea763fc3b6ae3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Yoon Young-kwan\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/yoon-young-kwan\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"How China lost Asia | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"How China lost Asia | The Strategist","og_description":"Since the dawn of international politics, smaller states have faced the formidable challenge of navigating great-power rivalries. Today, it is the geopolitical contest between the United States and China that has compelled countries to balance ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2023-03-16T01:40:34+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-03-16T01:41:10+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":682,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GettyImages-1247968725.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Yoon Young-kwan","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Yoon Young-kwan","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GettyImages-1247968725.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/GettyImages-1247968725.jpg","width":1024,"height":682,"caption":"TOPSHOT - An aerial view taken on March 9, 2023 shows a cargo vessel docked at Thitu Island in the South China Sea. - As a Philippine Coast Guard plane carrying journalists flew over the Spratly Islands in the hotly disputed South China Sea, a Chinese voice issued a stern command over the radio: \"Leave immediately.\" (Photo by JAM STA ROSA \/ AFP) (Photo by JAM STA ROSA\/AFP via Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/","name":"How China lost Asia | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2023-03-16T01:40:34+00:00","dateModified":"2023-03-16T01:41:10+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/3a357ece9c054442eea35cda583bef31"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-china-lost-asia\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"How China lost Asia"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/3a357ece9c054442eea35cda583bef31","name":"Yoon Young-kwan","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d64e8e7eef5b4f86bcaea763fc3b6ae3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d64e8e7eef5b4f86bcaea763fc3b6ae3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Yoon Young-kwan"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/yoon-young-kwan\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78397"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/642"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78397"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78397\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78401,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78397\/revisions\/78401"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}