{"id":78402,"date":"2023-03-17T06:00:19","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T19:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=78402"},"modified":"2023-03-16T18:03:24","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T07:03:24","slug":"the-limits-of-beijings-middle-east-diplomacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-limits-of-beijings-middle-east-diplomacy\/","title":{"rendered":"The limits of Beijing\u2019s Middle East diplomacy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

In China-brokered talks, the two oil-rich and rival states of Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore diplomatic relations after a seven-year split. Although the two sides need much confidence-building, their rapprochement carries the potential to change the regional geopolitical landscape at the cost of concerns for policy hawks in the US and Israel.<\/p>\n

The longstanding Iranian\u2013Saudi sectarian and geopolitical rivalry has been a major source of tension and conflict in the Persian Gulf region. Traditionally, whereas Iran has sought to project itself as the guardian of Shia Islam, Saudi Arabia has claimed the leadership of Sunni Islam. Both have also competed for regional geopolitical supremacy. They have been involved, in opposition to one another, in some of the conflict-ridden flashpoints in the region, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.<\/p>\n

Fearing Iran\u2019s nuclear program and regarding the country as a regional threat, the traditionally US-backed Saudi Arabia has opened backdoor diplomatic channels with Iran\u2019s other US-allied regional foe, Israel, and supported the normalisation of relations between some of its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council (the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, in particular) with the Jewish state in an anti-Iran front. In response, Iran has forged close ties with Russia and China. The Saudi execution of a prominent Shia cleric and Iranians\u2019 storming of the Saudi embassy in Tehran resulted in Riyadh cutting ties with Tehran in early 2016.<\/p>\n

However, the regional picture has lately changed for the two protagonists. Despite being under severe American sanctions and beset by public protests since September 2022, the Iranian Islamic regime has managed to maintain its regional influence in the Levant\u2014the area stretching from Iraq to Lebanon\u2014as well as Yemen and has made a show of its military strength by supplying Russia with deadly drones in the Ukraine conflict.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia hasn\u2019t been able either to rebuff the Iranian influence or to maintain its historical trust of the US as a very reliable ally, especially in the wake of America\u2019s inability to rein in Iran and to avoid defeat in Afghanistan. It has increasingly found it in its interest to diversify its foreign relations, forging closer relations with the very powers with which Iran has established camaraderie, most importantly China.<\/p>\n

The kingdom\u2019s young de facto ruler Mohammad bin Salman has viewed this diversification as not only signalling his dissatisfaction with Washington\u2019s criticism of his alleged human rights violations, but also aiding him with realising his vision to make Saudi Arabia a regional superpower by 2030. For this, he wants to reduce the country\u2019s dependence on hydrocarbon as a source of wealth; expand its economy, trade and inflow of investment and high-tech industry; and change its social and cultural landscape, though not its authoritarian politics. He has found the Chinese model more appealing in this respect.<\/p>\n

Beijing could not be more pleased with the Iranian\u2013Saudi rapprochement under its diplomatic auspices. It constitutes a major step, along with the recent peace proposal for Ukraine, in Beijing\u2019s global diplomatic offensives to raise China\u2019s credentials as a peacemaker through a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states on the world stage. The underlying message is to present the US as an interventionist \u2018warmonger\u2019 power. In addition, it paves the way for China\u2019s deeper and wider economic and trade ties in a region from which it imports some 40% of its annual oil needs.<\/p>\n

These developments can only be unsettling for the US and Israel, both of which regard any regional easing on Iran, especially with China\u2019s support, as contrary to their interests. The US wants to maintain maximum pressure on the Iranian regime over its nuclear program, regional influence and handling of recent domestic unrest, headed by Iranian women against theocratic restrictions and declining standards of living. It is also not keen to see Saudi Arabia tilt towards the very powers that the US seeks to contain.<\/p>\n

Israel regards Iran\u2019s Islamic regime as an existential threat and has vowed to do whatever it takes to prevent it from becoming a military nuclear power. The two sides have been locked in a shadow war for some time. Israel has frequently attacked Iranian targets in Syria and Lebanon, assassinated several of the country\u2019s nuclear scientists and raided its ships. In a more daring act, recently it directly attacked defence installations in Isfahan where Iranian nuclear facilities are located. In turn, Iran has targeted Israeli ships, intelligence and diplomatic personnel, and has promised to retaliate against any hostile Israeli action.<\/p>\n

Israel and Iran have at times come very close to serious blows. Any direct confrontation between them could have devastating consequences for the region and beyond. Having said that, it\u2019s also important to be reminded that China has good cooperative diplomatic, security and intelligence relations with Israel. Can we expect Beijing to step in there as well to bring about a resolution of the Israeli\u2013Palestinian conflict, where the US has failed? Most likely not, given Israel\u2019s intransigence not to give up its occupation and America\u2019s unwavering strategic backing of it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In China-brokered talks, the two oil-rich and rival states of Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore diplomatic relations after a seven-year split. Although the two sides need much confidence-building, their rapprochement carries the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":973,"featured_media":78403,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,294,247,240,218,1078,31],"class_list":["post-78402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-diplomacy","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-middle-east","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe limits of Beijing\u2019s Middle East diplomacy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-limits-of-beijings-middle-east-diplomacy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The limits of Beijing\u2019s Middle East diplomacy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In China-brokered talks, the two oil-rich and rival states of Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore diplomatic relations after a seven-year split. 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