{"id":79571,"date":"2023-05-10T14:05:26","date_gmt":"2023-05-10T04:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=79571"},"modified":"2023-05-11T17:18:30","modified_gmt":"2023-05-11T07:18:30","slug":"turkeys-democratic-future-hangs-in-the-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkeys-democratic-future-hangs-in-the-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey\u2019s democratic future hangs in the balance"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This year\u2019s presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May mark one of the most critical moments for Turkey in the past 100 years. Turkey is currently dealing with the aftermath of the devastating February earthquakes while simultaneously experiencing a massive economic crisis due to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\u2019s bizarre economic theories<\/a>. It is a moment for the democratic soul of the country, but the mood is hopeful for political change. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Erdogan have been in power for over 20 years. But for the first time in many decades, it appears that Erdogan, the AKP and their political allies under the People\u2019s Alliance (Cumhur Ittifaki<\/em>) might lose the election.<\/p>\n

The opposition parties have united in the Nation Alliance (Millet Ittifaki<\/em>). Despite their ideological differences, the opposition is in with a chance for the first time in over two decades according to polls<\/a>. More importantly, the opposition\u2019s presidential candidate from the Republican People\u2019s Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu<\/a>, looks to have a lead over Erdogan.<\/p>\n

In Turkey\u2019s competitive authoritarian regime, questions remain about whether this will be a free and fair election. Erdogan will likely try to win by \u2018hook\u2019 or \u2018crook\u2019. To secure power he has jailed opposition members like Kurdish-dominated Peoples\u2019 Democratic Party (HDP) leader Selahattin Demirtas<\/a> and sentenced Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu<\/a>, from the Republican People’s Party (CHP), to two years in prison, banning them both from politics. The AKP\u2019s control of the media and vast resources of the Turkish state puts them at an obvious advantage. AKP control over the judiciary and the Supreme Election Council (YSK) means that institutionally the AKP can tip the scales in its favour as it did in 2017 when the YSK made the last-minute decision to include unstamped ballots<\/a> as valid.<\/p>\n

While the AKP may have institutional dominance and control over most of the state\u2019s essential functions, it would be unwise to say this is a sure win for the AKP and Erdogan. It may benefit the opposition that Erdogan\u2019s campaign has lacked his usual vigour due to his age, health issues<\/a> and the inevitable disconnect from voters, especially when one occupies the throne for too long. Erdogan has dialled up cultural, ethnic and sectarian polarisation as the AKP\u2019s attempts to dampen the effects of inflation have failed. With the economic crisis, rallying around the flag operations and polarising rhetoric may not bring the votes the AKP desires. Flashy new projects such as the first Turkish-developed automobile<\/a> are being eclipsed by the opposition\u2019s focus on the problems of everyday people like the price of onions<\/a>. Erdogan is old and tired, and seems to be out of good ideas, particularly on how to fix the mess that his rise to power has created. Despite all the pressure put upon it, the opposition\u2019s campaign has maintained a positive message.<\/p>\n

The Turkish public takes voting very seriously, and despite minor irregularities, the turnout on average elections sits around 80%<\/a>. Voting has always been a way for the Turkish public to voice grievances against centralised authority during the AKP rule and throughout Turkish history. During the 2019 Istanbul elections, Erdogan used the YSK to overturn the opposition win and re-run the poll. Turks then voted in droves to re-elect Imamoglu<\/a> by a staggering amount, denying the AKP the city of Istanbul and the vast coffers that running this municipality offered.<\/p>\n

Now it appears that the bureaucracy the AKP government has spent the last two decades undermining and filling with loyalists is starting to hedge its bets. The YSK has rejected<\/a> a AKP motion to remove the Nation Alliance\u2019s name from the ballot. Turkey\u2019s highest court, the Constitutional Court, reversed its decision<\/a> to block state funding to the HDP for its electoral campaign despite AKP protests. Signs like this indicate that bureaucrats may be considering a possible AKP loss and where their futures may lie in a post-Erdogan Turkey. This could be because the vast economic strain on the country is starting to affect those who\u2019ve benefited from the system for so long.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, the new executive presidential system that concentrated power in Erdogan\u2019s office has also been highly inefficient. The AKP government\u2019s response to the earthquake in February<\/a> is a prime example. This all means that the institutions of state the AKP has aimed to control for so long may not be as tied to the regime as the AKP thinks. Patrimonialism tends to disintegrate when the money is no longer there.\u00a0 The opposition has focused on the economic cost of a continued Erdogan government and stated that the country would return to a parliamentary system<\/a> if it\u2019s elected.<\/p>\n

Questions remain about the security services. The AKP\u2019s purging of the Turkish Armed Forces may have created a more pro-AKP military, but it\u2019s still not guaranteed that the military would back Erdogan if he lost the election. The AKP has emboldened other security organs instead such as the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) and Gendarmerie and created alternative pathways for its military power through non-state actors and private military organisations like SADAT<\/a> Inc. How these other institutions will respond if Erdogan loses is uncertain.<\/p>\n

Despite these factors, it\u2019s still difficult to assess whether there\u2019ll be a power transfer if the opposition wins. Besides the political cost for Erdogan, there\u2019s a real chance that he and his family will end up in prison if he loses power. That makes it unlikely that he\u2019ll go without a fight. Moreover, the AKP and its networks have entrenched themselves so deeply within the state’s economic, social and political institutions<\/a> that the opposition will have a difficult challenge ahead of them. There\u2019s been little discussion of what necessary state re-building will be needed if the AKP loses. In its current presidential form, the Turkish state cannot deal with the economic and political challenges that await it in the coming years. The Kurdish issue<\/a> will need a resolution if a new government wins.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the election\u2019s outcome, there\u2019ll not be much change<\/a> in foreign policy. Although the opposition wishes to diffuse tensions in existing alliances, Turkey\u2019s push for an independent foreign policy is part of a longer historical tradition across the political spectrum. While there may be some reorientation back towards NATO and the EU, given the shifting multipolar dynamics of the region and global system, it\u2019s likely that Turkey\u2019s new managers would try to hedge between its relationships with the US and NATO and its developed relationships with the Middle East, China<\/a> and Russia.<\/p>\n

It is apparent after 20 years that the AKP can no longer run Turkey effectively. The country is in crisis and a win for Erdogan will only prolong these issues. An AKP win is not inevitable and we shouldn\u2019t discount the forces and headwinds the AKP faces, but it is also not wise to count out Erdogan and the AKP. Erdogan\u2019s ministers are already setting up a narrative that an unfavourable election result would be part of a planned coup to topple<\/a> the Erdogan regime.<\/p>\n

Turkey has always been an imperfect democracy and, like most countries, has contended with authoritarianism throughout its history. The election will be a critical moment for Turkey. If Erdogan wins, there\u2019ll be a shift to a more authoritarian state that will make the lives of Turkish citizens more miserable.<\/p>\n

Geopolitically, Turkey will remain a destabilising force in the Middle East and the wider region. This would also lead to further erosion of the Eastern flank of NATO as Erdogan deepens his relationship with Putin\u2019s Russia<\/a>. But they say it\u2019s always darkest before dawn and the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic may see a shift to a more revisionist and authoritarian nation\u2014or hopefully, a \u2018Third Republic\u2019 that is more democratic, open and inclusive will emerge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This year\u2019s presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May mark one of the most critical moments for Turkey in the past 100 years. Turkey is currently dealing with the aftermath of the devastating February earthquakes …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1231,"featured_media":79575,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1766,747],"class_list":["post-79571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-erdogan","tag-turkey"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTurkey\u2019s democratic future hangs in the balance | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/turkeys-democratic-future-hangs-in-the-balance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Turkey\u2019s democratic future hangs in the balance | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This year\u2019s presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May mark one of the most critical moments for Turkey in the past 100 years. 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