{"id":79663,"date":"2023-05-15T06:00:23","date_gmt":"2023-05-14T20:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=79663"},"modified":"2023-05-12T15:38:35","modified_gmt":"2023-05-12T05:38:35","slug":"what-the-invasion-of-ukraine-means-for-unity-in-southeast-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-the-invasion-of-ukraine-means-for-unity-in-southeast-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"What the invasion of Ukraine means for unity in Southeast Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

Lim Jock Hoi, ASEAN\u2019s former secretary-general, has said<\/a> the organisation\u2019s ability to function effectively relies on whether its members can align their national interests with regional goals. This can be difficult given its diversity, but ASEAN has made its unity a core objective since its inception.<\/p>\n

The 1967<\/a> Bangkok declaration\u2014t\u00adhe organisation\u2019s founding document\u2014emphasised facilitating regional cooperation and strengthening bonds of regional solidarity. The 1976<\/a> Treaty of Amity and Cooperation reiterated these sentiments.<\/p>\n

It was in the aftermath of the 2012 Bali Concords II<\/a>, however, that ASEAN set out a concrete vision to create a \u2018cohesive, resilient and integrated ASEAN community\u2019 and, crucially, a \u2018common regional identity\u2019.<\/p>\n

This drive towards unity was accentuated through the ASEAN Community Vision of 2025<\/a>, which set a target of creating \u2018one identity and one community\u2019 that adheres to \u2018shared values and norms\u2019.<\/p>\n

Even so, disunity persists.<\/p>\n

In 2021, ASEAN issued a \u2018five-point consensus<\/a>\u2019 on the Myanmar crisis<\/a>, yet violence there continues to escalate, generating criticism<\/a> of ASEAN\u2019s slow response.<\/p>\n

Disunity was key to the consensus\u2019s failure to make a big impact. While Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore were more openly<\/a> critical of the coup, member states nearer to Myanmar\u2014Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos\u2014were reluctant to condemn the junta<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Other issues have similarly failed to engender regional consensus. The invasion of Ukraine is a notable example, with official ASEAN responses relatively muted.<\/p>\n

On three occasions in 2022\u201426 February<\/a>, 3 March<\/a> and 8 April<\/a>\u2014ASEAN foreign ministers issued statements on the conflict. They referred the \u2018hostilities\u2019 taking place in Ukraine, and rather than call on Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory and follow international law, called for \u2018an immediate ceasefire or armistice\u2019 followed by \u2018political dialogues that would lead to sustainable peace in Ukraine\u2019.<\/p>\n

Similar language came out of the ASEAN summit held lasts week. While Indonesia\u2019s statement<\/a> as chair referred to \u2018territorial integrity\u2019 and \u2018sovereignty\u2019 and called for compliance with international law, it didn\u2019t name Russia or refer to aggression in any way.<\/p>\n

This disunity reflects diverging national interests. In a 2023 survey<\/a>, only 14% of respondents from Laos said that they were \u2018very concerned\u2019 about Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, compared with more than 50% of respondents from Singapore.<\/p>\n

Similarly, a 2020 report<\/a> asking the question, \u2018Who would you consider as your country\u2019s preferred strategic partner if the US was unreliable?\u2019 found that 33% of respondents in Laos considered Russia a suitable partner while less than 1% felt the same way in Singapore. Failure to build consensus on these issues has affected the way each member state is framing the conflict and weakens efforts to protect unity in the region.<\/p>\n

Between 2014 and February 2023, the UN General Assembly passed 11 resolutions on the Ukraine situation. The way ASEAN states voted demonstrates the absence of a united position on the issue.<\/p>\n

Brunei and Vietnam, for example, have consistently abstained from resolutions. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, from an initial point of more open condemnation of Russia\u2019s actions, shifted to abstaining in subsequent resolutions.<\/p>\n

Singapore, interestingly, is the only ASEAN country that has voted in favour of resolutions condemning Russia more than once. Even so, it hasn\u2019t consistently voted that way.<\/p>\n

The disunity is most on display in the voting patterns of Laos and Singapore. In stark contrast to Singapore\u2019s position, Laos has abstained from or voted against every resolution on the Ukrainian crisis. And when Singapore has voted in favour of a resolution, Laos has voted against it all but once.<\/p>\n

This divergence began with a resolution<\/a> adopted in December 2018 in response to Russia\u2019s occupation of Crimea. Singapore voted in favour of three points that Laos voted against: paragraph 1, which stressed that Russia had violation of Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty; paragraph 5, which identified Russia\u2019s \u2018unjustified used of force\u2019; and paragraph 8, which referred to Russia as an \u2018occupying power\u2019 and urged it to end its \u2018occupation of Ukraine\u2019s territory\u2019.<\/p>\n

This set in motion a pattern of divergence that continues to the present day. Whenever UN resolutions characterise Russia\u2019s actions as a violation of Ukrainian territorial integrity, or note that Russia\u2019s actions are unjustified, or classify Russia as an occupying power that should withdraw from Ukrainian territory, Laos votes against while Singapore votes in favour.<\/p>\n

This pattern shows a disregard by Laos of the gravity of Russia\u2019s actions, and it also explains why ASEAN hasn\u2019t been able to classify Russia as an \u2018occupying power\u2019 in violation of Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity, or even mention Russia by name in statements.<\/p>\n

The fact that ASEAN members can\u2019t agree on whether to say Russia violated international law in Ukraine throws doubt on the organisation\u2019s repeated commitments to a \u2018rules-based\u2019 international order. It also raises serious questions about its ability to deal with contentious issues closer to home.<\/p>\n

If ASEAN hopes to be at the centre of the region\u2019s security and economic architecture, it must adopt a proactive role on regional issues that maintains unity and cohesion. If it can\u2019t do that, it risks falling by the wayside in favour of more security-focused initiatives like the Quad<\/a> and AUKUS. In the absence of a strong, unified ASEAN, such agreements will fill the vacuum, and member states will be forced to improvise as outside powers exert a greater role in the security of Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lim Jock Hoi, ASEAN\u2019s former secretary-general, has said the organisation\u2019s ability to function effectively relies on whether its members can align their national interests with regional goals. 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