{"id":79776,"date":"2023-05-17T13:52:54","date_gmt":"2023-05-17T03:52:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=79776"},"modified":"2023-05-17T13:52:54","modified_gmt":"2023-05-17T03:52:54","slug":"wrangling-china-to-influence-russia-in-ukraine-is-a-fools-errand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wrangling-china-to-influence-russia-in-ukraine-is-a-fools-errand\/","title":{"rendered":"Wrangling China to influence Russia in Ukraine is a fool\u2019s errand"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

Pressing Chinese President Xi Jinping to \u2018bring Russia to its senses<\/a>\u2019 in the forlorn hope of ending the war in Ukraine is all the rage among European statesmen. Over the past two months, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock<\/a> and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez<\/a> have all visited China. The three urged Xi and his inner circle to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, bring everyone to the negotiating table and persuade Putin to end the war. Or, at least, establish a \u2018lasting peace<\/a>.\u2019<\/p>\n

In post-summit statements, Xi paid lip service to \u2018peace talks<\/a>\u2019 and the reprehensibility of nuclear<\/a> war, but European desires that he coax Putin into ending the war will keep falling on deaf ears.<\/p>\n

So far, too many Western leaders have disregarded the gap between what China says and what it does. Their calls for Beijing\u2019s intervention show that they see the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s external beliefs and behaviours through their own liberal lens, but that is not how China conducts world affairs.<\/p>\n

For decades, liberal leaders got China terribly wrong<\/a>. Officials and academics prophesied that Western capital, economic engagement and political accommodation would liberalise China. Many clung to this misguided hope<\/a> despite mounting evidence to the contrary in the early 2000s.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s domestic human rights violations<\/a> and use of political oppression<\/a>, coupled with nefarious inter-state practices like forced technology transfers<\/a>, intellectual property theft<\/a>, \u2018brute force\u2019 economics<\/a> and disputed sovereignty seizures<\/a> have proven that rapid economic development need not come alongside stronger political freedoms or democracy.<\/p>\n

Although Europe has begrudgingly tolerated China\u2019s competitive authoritarianism<\/a>, it is now in danger of succumbing to another beguiling delusion: that Beijing can be an \u2018honest broker\u2019, an objective force for good in the world that conforms to a liberal, rules-based order.<\/p>\n

But Beijing is not a kindred liberal spirit and efforts to coerce Xi into intervening on behalf of peace expose the naivety of Europe\u2019s China policy.<\/p>\n

Such efforts assume that Chinese proclamations about a \u2018democratic<\/a>\u2019 world and \u2018win\u2013win cooperation<\/a>\u2019 aren\u2019t sly slogans but actual operating principles. This relapse of foolish faith in China\u2019s altruism ignores the logic behind Beijing\u2019s continued decision to vocally support<\/a> Vladimir Putin\u2019s Russia despite its invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

For Xi, it pays to stand behind Putin for four reasons.<\/p>\n

First, Russia remains a great power and founding partner of China\u2019s anti-US coalition<\/a>. Prussian statesman Otto von Bismarck allegedly remarked<\/a> that in a world order of five states, one should always be in the group of three.<\/p>\n

The same concept applies to today\u2019s world order of three major powers\u2014the US, Russia and China. It\u2019s best to be the duo. Beijing and Moscow are cooperating with each other to resist an alleged \u2018all-round containment, encirclement and suppression<\/a>\u2019 by the US. Sino-Russian relations are invigorated not by ties of history, language or culture, but by shared antipathy for the US and a desire to diminish its global influence.<\/p>\n

As Xi told<\/a> Putin before leaving the Kremlin in March: \u2018Right now there are changes\u2014the likes of which we haven\u2019t seen for 100 years\u2014and we are the ones driving these changes together.\u2019 The Ukraine war may have hindered Russia\u2019s global power, but Xi still has a willing and able ally in Putin. The more Xi helps Putin withstand sanctions and international criticism, the weaker Washington appears.<\/p>\n

Second, Xi wants predictable relations with China\u2019s neighbours and great powers so it can focus on competing with the US. Historically<\/a>, Sino-Russian relations have rarely been chummy. The two major land powers together make up much of Asia and share the third largest international land border.<\/p>\n

A reliable pariah-neighbour is better for China than an unknown quantity or political vacuum. This is why Xi and Putin have met more than 40 times<\/a> in the past decade and call each other \u2018dear friend\u2019. Invasion or not, Xi will continue to support Putin to prevent political instability that could upend Eurasia.<\/p>\n

Third, the Ukraine war itself benefits China. Because of the war, China has been able to buy<\/a> Russian oil, gas and coal at cheaper prices, after European customers began shopping elsewhere. The war has also provided China with a treasure trove of lessons on how to invade\u2014or not invade\u2014another state. Those insights, ranging from urban warfare to information operations, could shape Beijing\u2019s own plans for a forceful reunification with Taiwan.<\/p>\n

And perhaps most importantly, Xi likely believes the longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the more it shifts Washington\u2019s focus away from East Asia, exhausting<\/a> its munitions depots and political will to resist another conquest.<\/p>\n

Fourth, supporting Putin costs Xi little. During the March summit, Xi bypassed Putin\u2019s wish list<\/a> of lethal aid and a second Power of Siberia pipeline. Instead, he only gifted Putin enough moral support<\/a> to prove that Russia wasn\u2019t completely isolated and enough non-lethal aid to sustain the flagging Russian war effort. Putin has little choice but to accept these symbolic gestures.<\/p>\n

European leaders\u2019 delusions about China\u2019s ability, or desire, to end the invasion are dangerous, given the concessions they offer to enlist Xi\u2019s help. During his visit, Macron invited a massive business delegation and distanced France from the US in the pursuit of \u2018strategic autonomy<\/a>\u2019\u2014a favourite concept of Xi\u2019s. In return, he received nothing. The rest of Europe should take notice. Xi has no compelling reason to meddle in a conflict that benefits China, especially when it means lecturing a friend with a common enemy.<\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s late April phone call with Zelensky was hailed as a positive development<\/a>, but little has changed since, nor will it. Xi will continue playing the enlightened peacemaker while privately bolstering his dear friend\u2019s regime. For now, there\u2019s little he wants to change, even if he could.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pressing Chinese President Xi Jinping to \u2018bring Russia to its senses\u2019 in the forlorn hope of ending the war in Ukraine is all the rage among European statesmen. Over the past two months, French President …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1339,"featured_media":79779,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1975,163,714,204],"class_list":["post-79776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-putin","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-xi-jinping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWrangling China to influence Russia in Ukraine is a fool\u2019s errand | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wrangling-china-to-influence-russia-in-ukraine-is-a-fools-errand\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wrangling China to influence Russia in Ukraine is a fool\u2019s errand | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pressing Chinese President Xi Jinping to \u2018bring Russia to its senses\u2019 in the forlorn hope of ending the war in Ukraine is all the rage among European statesmen. 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