{"id":80124,"date":"2023-06-02T14:00:36","date_gmt":"2023-06-02T04:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80124"},"modified":"2023-06-02T14:04:26","modified_gmt":"2023-06-02T04:04:26","slug":"the-threat-spectrum-49","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum-49\/","title":{"rendered":"The threat spectrum"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Planet A<\/strong><\/p>\n

The United States and Papua New Guinea have signed<\/a> a new defence and maritime cooperation agreement to combat illegal fishing, illegal logging and drug smuggling in PNG waters. The two countries also agreed to further climate-change cooperation when regional leaders met in Port Moresby for the US\u2013Pacific Islands Forum Leaders\u2019 Dialogue<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At the forum, Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed<\/a> the US commitment to mitigate the impacts of climate-change-driven sea-level rise. The declaration addresses concerns outlined in the Pacific security outlook report 2022\u201323<\/a><\/em>, including the knock-on effects of rising sea levels on oceanic fishery revenues, territorial integrity and potentially statehood. The US also pledged an additional $12.5 million in aid to strengthen<\/a> PNG\u2019s critical resources and systems and help make local communities more climate resilient.<\/p>\n

These developments hint at how PNG is at the forefront<\/a> of intensifying US\u2013China competition, with the Pacific island nation receiving more investment and high-level visits than in decades past. The broader uptick in US\u2013Pacific political dialogue<\/a> shows that not all defence partnerships are necessarily about preparing for conflict.<\/p>\n

Democracy watch <\/strong><\/p>\n

The arrest<\/a> of former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan triggered fresh protests in Pakistan, escalating the country\u2019s ongoing political crisis. Khan\u2019s arrest was officially over corruption charges<\/a> against him and his wife. However, the move came soon after Khan accused<\/a> a senior military officer of orchestrating an assassination attempt against him last year, suggesting that it was more about the growing animosity of Pakistan\u2019s all-powerful military towards Khan than about cracking down on corruption in the country.<\/p>\n

The protests targeted army institutions and some led to violent clashes<\/a> with the police and military. In response, workers and leaders of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, Khan\u2019s party, were arrested<\/a>. The government is also considering<\/a> banning the party. An anti-terrorism court in Lahore permitted<\/a> the trial of 16 civilians in army courts for participating in violent protests, a decision that potentially violates Pakistan\u2019s obligations under international law.<\/p>\n

Khan is the seventh<\/a> former prime minister to be arrested in Pakistan. The unfolding crisis repeats past patterns of political upheaval in the state and the notoriously unstable<\/a> relationship between its political and military leaders. The crisis could affect the general elections scheduled for October, and forcefully quashing Khan in the lead-up could foster domestic disillusionment with democratic political institutions, given the support he enjoys.<\/p>\n

Information operations<\/strong><\/p>\n

A senior Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has accused <\/a>the US and its Five Eyes partners of waging a \u2018disinformation campaign\u2019. The claims were in reaction to the release of statements issued last week by Microsoft <\/a>and the US in collaboration with international cybersecurity authorities <\/a>that outlined the role of a Chinese state-sponsored actor, \u2018Volt Typhoon\u2019, in infiltrating US critical infrastructure since mid-2021. The Chinese foreign ministry said <\/a>that the allegations were \u2018a collective disinformation campaign of the Five Eyes\u2019 and accused the US of \u2018expanding new channels to spread disinformation\u2019.<\/p>\n

The comments come amid ongoing tensions<\/a> between the US and China, including over Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and the potential for conflict over Taiwan. As US\u2013China competition continues to escalate, cyber operations such as Volt Typhoon\u2019s activities will continue to play a role. For one, there are concerns that Chinese-sponsored actors may hack critical infrastructure in Taiwan and disrupt key services to support a potential invasion of Taiwan.<\/p>\n

Follow the money<\/strong><\/p>\n

Last week, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili vehemently opposed<\/a> the EU\u2019s proposition to sanction third-party nations engaged in business with Moscow. Georgia is among several countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia that have experienced a surge<\/a> in trade with Russia since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022.<\/p>\n

Despite being Russia\u2019s second largest trading partner, Georgia has recorded annual trade turnover<\/a> with Russia below $1 billion, a fraction of the substantial trade volume between Russia and the EU<\/a>. Garibashvili underscored the minimal repercussions that would ensue from his nation imposing sanctions on Russia, while highlighting the detrimental damage they would inflict on Georgia\u2019s economic stability.<\/p>\n

Although supportive of Ukraine, Georgia confronts a delicate<\/a> predicament due to its geographical proximity to Russia and the occupation of its own territories. Despite the resumption of direct flights<\/a> between Tbilisi and Moscow drawing condemnation from both the EU and domestic critics, Garibashvili has affirmed that Georgia\u2019s economic relations with Russia will persist.<\/p>\n

Terror byte<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US is facing a growing incidence of domestic terrorist attacks perpetrated by right-wing extremists. Since 2016, there has been a significant increase<\/a> in the frequency of assaults committed by right-wing extremists<\/a>, largely fuelled by the Republican Party\u2019s escalating wave of right-wing discourse specifically targeting minority groups. Since the 2020 election, the dissemination of false narratives about election interference has also played a role.<\/p>\n

According to a University of Maryland dataset, approximately 95%<\/a> of domestic extremists in the US are on the far-right. Two recent incidents reflect this trend\u2014a white supremacist\u2019s lethal assault on African Americans in Buffalo<\/a> and a self-proclaimed white nationalist\u2019s shooting spree in El Paso<\/a> targeting Hispanic individuals.<\/p>\n

The same dataset showed that while organised factions once held prominence, the perpetrators of such crimes now operate primarily\u2014around 70% of the time\u2014as lone actors or as part of small, isolated cliques. Typically, they are deeply entrenched in online communities that facilitate access to extremist concepts and organisations. The impact of such rhetoric was particularly evident in the 6 January 2021 insurrection<\/a> at the US Capitol. With inflammatory discourse and violent threats to public officials increasing<\/a>, it\u2019s likely these trends will persist in the lead-up to the 2024 election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Planet A The United States and Papua New Guinea have signed a new defence and maritime cooperation agreement to combat illegal fishing, illegal logging and drug smuggling in PNG waters. 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