{"id":80148,"date":"2023-06-03T12:15:11","date_gmt":"2023-06-03T02:15:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80148"},"modified":"2023-06-03T12:24:26","modified_gmt":"2023-06-03T02:24:26","slug":"albanese-calls-for-indo-pacific-jaw-jaw-and-guardrails","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/albanese-calls-for-indo-pacific-jaw-jaw-and-guardrails\/","title":{"rendered":"Albanese calls for Indo-Pacific jaw-jaw and guardrails"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

\u2018To move from imagining conflict is\u00a0impossible<\/em>\u00a0to assuming war is\u00a0inevitable<\/em> is just as harmful to our shared goals. The fate of our region is not preordained. It never was. It never is. What we do here, what we decide here, matters\u2014for us and the world.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u2014 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Shangri-La Dialogue, 2 June 2023<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

A leader\u2019s defining speech on defence offers what they see now and what they want for the future. The predictions and hopes are set against the fears and the threats.<\/p>\n

Anthony Albanese offered both hopes and fears in his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue<\/a> in Singapore.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s prime minister didn\u2019t use Churchill\u2019s phrase that \u2018meeting jaw to jaw is better than war\u2019<\/a>. But his speech was a passionate call for more dialogue, embracing the US quest to create \u2018guardrails\u2019 with China.<\/p>\n

The government line is that the Shangri-La speech sets out \u2018Australia\u2019s vision for the Indo-Pacific\u2019<\/a> in the premier forum for discussing \u2018regional security dynamics and challenges\u2019. Take the prime minister at his word. See this as the major foreign policy speech to mark Albanese\u2019s first year in office, perhaps even a defining statement for this term in office.<\/p>\n

History shows that what an Australian leader offers in this Singapore keynote can, indeed, set much. The previous Shangri-La effort, by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2017, was what I dubbed a \u2018Hunger Games\u2019<\/a> speech, offering robust language about the \u2018dark view\u2019 of a \u2018coercive China\u2019 seeking domination. A five\u2013year icy period in Australia\u2013China relations was launched.<\/p>\n

My headline for Albanese\u2019s words is the plea for meeting jaw to jaw. He joined this to a theme that Turnbull also emphasised: the Indo-Pacific couldn\u2019t leave it to the great powers to safeguard our interests.<\/p>\n

Albanese lamented the errors of the \u2018end of history\u2019 view that hoped globalisation, free trade and new technologies would create \u2018a more open, more stable world\u2019. Instead, he described what we\u2019ve got with these three points:<\/p>\n

\u2014 The rise of nativism and isolationism<\/p>\n

\u2014 A land war in Europe<\/p>\n

\u2014 And the biggest conventional military build-up since the Second World War, in our own region.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The nativism worry can be pinned on Donald Trump, as previous president and current candidate. The military build-up is China\u2019s. And Ukraine stands as the warning about what happens when talking fails. The region has much to do to save itself.<\/p>\n

Albanese said Australia is strengthening deterrence and diplomacy, to help build a region \u2018where two countries can disagree\u2014even very firmly\u2014without that disagreement ending in disaster\u2019. Central to this was the \u2018word of the moment\u2019\u2014strategic \u2018guardrails\u2019:<\/p>\n

Now, I\u2019m a former minister for infrastructure, so I confess that when I hear guardrails, my mind goes straight to the safety barriers on the side of major roads. But that\u2019s actually not a bad way of thinking about what is being proposed. Because this isn\u2019t about a policy of containment, it\u2019s not a question of placing obstacles in the way of any nation\u2019s progress or potential. This is a matter of simple, practical structures to prevent a worst-case scenario. The essential precondition for this is dialogue.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Albanese said the \u2018pressure valve of dialogue\u2019 beats the \u2018silence of the diplomatic deep freeze\u2019. The prime minister\u2019s prescription for the region echoes Canberra\u2019s bilateral effort to defrost with Beijing.<\/p>\n

Without dialogue, Albanese said, there\u2019s less chance to pick up the phone to seek clarity or context, and there\u2019s \u2018always a much greater risk of assumptions spilling over into irretrievable action and reaction\u2019. His government had put dialogue at the heart of efforts to stabilise relations with China: \u2018We\u2019re not naive about this process, or its limitations. We recognise there are fundamental differences in our two nations\u2019 systems of government, our values and our worldviews.\u2019<\/p>\n

Albanese pitched the revitalised Quad and the AUKUS agreement on nuclear-powered submarines as fresh supports for Australia\u2019s long engagement in Asia and the South Pacific:<\/p>\n

Before I stood alongside President Biden and Prime Minister Sunak to announce Australia\u2019s pathway to acquiring conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines, I ensured that my government spoke with every ASEAN and Pacific partner and many other nations. More than 60 phone calls, being open and transparent with the region about our intentions.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Albanese quoted Indonesia\u2019s President Joko Widodo\u2019s view that the Quad and AUKUS should work as \u2018partners and not competitors\u2019 in making the region stable and peaceful: \u2018The submarines we are acquiring\u2014the single biggest leap in Australia\u2019s defence capability in our history\u2014reflect our determination to live up to those expectations. To be a stronger partner and a more effective contributor to stability in our region.\u2019<\/p>\n

Australia is putting its dialogue call into action across the Shangri-La program<\/a>. Ahead of Albanese\u2019s keynote, the chief of the Australian Defence Force, General Angus Campbell, spoke in a session on \u2018<\/em>Challenges of Asia\u2013Pacific military capability development\u2019, while Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles will speak in Sunday\u2019s final session on \u2018Developing models for cooperative security\u2019.<\/p>\n

Campbell\u2019s presentation was a short and sharp version of the prime minister\u2019s big picture. He said \u2018our region is being reshaped\u2019 by influences ranging from stealth weapons to coercive statecraft to influence operations in the grey zone. Because of great-power competition, Australia sought a \u2018sustainable balance of power\u2019 rather than a hierarchy of power, pushing against \u2018rule of power over rule of law\u2019.<\/p>\n

You know Australia\u2019s defence equipment mindset is shifting when the chief of the ADF adopts the geek-speak motto\u2014\u2018move fast and break things\u2019\u2014to describe the \u2018accelerator\u2019 approach to investing and developing new technology for military kit.<\/p>\n

Defence had to engage early with emerging technology and be \u2018fast to fail or to succeed\u2019, Campbell said. \u2018You need to move winners forward very quickly and walk away very quickly from the ones that fail.\u2019<\/p>\n

The prime minister\u2019s plea for the power of words is playing to the strength of any politician. But Australia\u2019s defence chief wanting to throw quick money at tech and junk slow movers just as quickly? That imagines a revolution in the way Australia\u2019s big defence beast buys and builds. We are in new and strange days.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018To move from imagining conflict is\u00a0impossible\u00a0to assuming war is\u00a0inevitable is just as harmful to our shared goals. The fate of our region is not preordained. It never was. It never is. What we do here, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":80155,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3192,2212,56,2323,142,3321],"class_list":["post-80148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-anthony-albanese","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-indo-pacific","tag-penny-wong","tag-regional-security","tag-richard-marles"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAlbanese calls for Indo-Pacific jaw-jaw and guardrails | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/albanese-calls-for-indo-pacific-jaw-jaw-and-guardrails\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Albanese calls for Indo-Pacific jaw-jaw and guardrails | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u2018To move from imagining conflict is\u00a0impossible\u00a0to assuming war is\u00a0inevitable is just as harmful to our shared goals. 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