{"id":80364,"date":"2023-06-09T12:00:46","date_gmt":"2023-06-09T02:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80364"},"modified":"2023-06-09T11:58:30","modified_gmt":"2023-06-09T01:58:30","slug":"all-talk-no-dialogue-on-asian-security","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/all-talk-no-dialogue-on-asian-security\/","title":{"rendered":"All talk, no dialogue on Asian security"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

The International Institute for Strategic Studies\u2019 Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia\u2019s largest security conference, has wrapped up its 2023 meeting in Singapore. The context for this year\u2019s summit was not propitious: Russia\u2019s bloody invasion of Ukraine grinds on, while Chinese President Xi Jinping continues his uncompromising approach<\/a> to global affairs.<\/p>\n

If one thing was obvious during the two days of defence diplomacy, it is that the Sino\u2013American competition is far from being managed effectively. A robust bilateral dialogue is almost non-existent at the ministerial level, with military-to-military contact even more limited. Efforts by US President Joe Biden\u2019s administration to restart talks fizzled earlier this year after a Chinese spy balloon was shot down in American airspace. Some senior officials are in contact, potentially paving the way for high-level visits. But for now, China is in no hurry to re-engage<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As the US warns<\/a> of an alarming increase in ominous intercepts from Chinese military aircraft and vessels amid escalating tensions<\/a> over Taiwan, its partners want China to talk. The focus, they argue, should be on better military-to-military communication to build confidence. In delivering this year\u2019s Shangri-La keynote, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described more dialogue as the \u201cfirst and most fundamental\u201d guardrail on US\u2013China relations.<\/p>\n

In his speech at the conference, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also emphasised bilateral dialogue, especially between military leaders. The right time to talk, Austin said, was \u201canytime and every time.\u201d Dialogue is not a reward, but a necessity, he continued\u2014perhaps with China and US hawks in mind\u2014adding that a \u201ccordial handshake over dinner\u201d is \u201cno substitute for a substantive engagement.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite this appeal, Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu rebuffed Austin\u2019s request to meet. That\u2019s not surprising, given that Li has been under US sanctions<\/a> since 2018 for buying Russian weapons. Nevertheless, China\u2019s adamant opposition to broader defence diplomacy is inexcusable. When asked about the need for guardrails and confidence-building measures, including to manage confrontations at sea or in the air, Li said the answer was not military-to-military dialogue. Rather, the West should \u2018mind its own business\u2019 and stay out of the waters and airspace near China.<\/p>\n

The US and its partners, Li argued, were using freedom of navigation as a pretext for \u2018hegemony.\u2019 Making it clear that China has no interest in examining its own conduct in the Indo-Pacific, Li repeated the now-familiar lines that his country would never bully or coerce others and has no hegemonic aspirations. The irony of such remarks was not lost on many of the delegates. The Philippines, for example, challenged Li on the \u2018disconnect\u2019 between China\u2019s words and its actions in recent years, not least in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

Li was unperturbed. China\u2019s narrative is aimed at a domestic audience, as wll as any regional elites disillusioned with the West and reflexively suspicious of the US. The Chinese delegates, predominantly from the People\u2019s Liberation Army, were quick to encourage Southeast Asian \u2018autonomy\u2019 and to portray the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and AUKUS security groupings as undermining the centrality of ASEAN and regional stability. Similarly, Li took aim at US \u2018exceptionalism and double standards,\u2019 a charge he knew would resonate with some in the audience.<\/p>\n

The second takeaway from the conference concerns Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine: while the war preoccupies the US and its close partners, Southeast Asia remains indifferent. The argument that Russia\u2019s aggression must be opposed, not least to guard against the possibility of a similar situation in Asia, was repeated ad nauseam at the conference. For the West, this is self-evident.<\/p>\n

But in many less-developed parts of Asia, the Russian and Chinese narrative of the war and its causes, including \u2018provocation\u2019 by NATO, has gained considerable traction. For example, Indonesian defence minister and presidential candidate, Prabowo Subianto, issued a seemingly impromptu peace proposal<\/a>, which called for a ceasefire \u2018at present positions,\u2019 a demilitarised zone, and United Nations-supervised referenda in \u2018disputed territories.\u2019<\/p>\n

The half-baked initiative was dead on arrival. European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell<\/a>, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, and many others quickly condemned the plan, arguing that it would result in an unjust peace. But Chinese delegates welcomed the proposal, and some Southeast Asian attendees, who complained that calls for negotiation were automatically seen as pro-Russian, sympathised with the idea.<\/p>\n

Equally striking, the \u2018power of partnerships<\/a>\u2019\u2014as the Biden administration describes it\u2014was on full display at the conference. Leaders and ministers from the US, Europe, the UK, Japan, Australia, and Canada sang from the same song sheet on both Russia and China, harmonising their calls for dialogue and deterrence. Moreover, US-led trilateral meetings were held on the sidelines, a \u2018new Quad\u2019 meeting of the US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines took place, and senior defence officials from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (the US, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) held discussions. India was notably absent, though, with its defence minister skipping the event yet again.<\/p>\n

It would be a mistake, however, to equate a strong showing of alignment between the US and its Indo-Pacific and European allies at Shangri-La with the broader mood in Southeast Asia. Concluding the conference, Singaporean Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen once again warned about US\u2013China tensions, a more militarised Indo-Pacific, and the risk of conflict. Some Southeast Asian delegates quietly expressed their ambivalence about US policy toward China, along with worry about the possible return of Donald Trump after next year\u2019s US presidential election, while Indonesia\u2019s concerns about the Quad and AUKUS were subdued but certainly present.<\/p>\n

For all its quiet hedging, Southeast Asia continues to worry about the risk of war. But regional leaders are determined to avoid the \u2018invidious choice<\/a>\u2019 between the US and China, no matter how much their rivalry shapes the agenda and dominates discussions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The International Institute for Strategic Studies\u2019 Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia\u2019s largest security conference, has wrapped up its 2023 meeting in Singapore. The context for this year\u2019s summit was not propitious: Russia\u2019s bloody invasion of Ukraine grinds …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1745,"featured_media":80367,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,2328,358,25,31],"class_list":["post-80364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-quad","tag-shangri-la-dialogue","tag-southeast-asia","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAll talk, no dialogue on Asian security | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/all-talk-no-dialogue-on-asian-security\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"All talk, no dialogue on Asian security | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The International Institute for Strategic Studies\u2019 Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia\u2019s largest security conference, has wrapped up its 2023 meeting in Singapore. 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