{"id":80657,"date":"2023-06-23T11:00:55","date_gmt":"2023-06-23T01:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80657"},"modified":"2023-06-23T11:19:33","modified_gmt":"2023-06-23T01:19:33","slug":"germanys-national-security-strategy-misses-the-mark","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/germanys-national-security-strategy-misses-the-mark\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany\u2019s national security strategy misses the mark"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

After a significant delay, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last week unveiled the country\u2019s first national security strategy<\/a>. The long-anticipated plan, introduced nearly a year and a half after Scholz stood before the Bundestag and proclaimed that Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine had triggered an \u2018epochal change<\/a>\u2019 (Zeitenwende<\/em>), is intended to help Germany navigate a changed and uncertain geopolitical landscape. But while the 74-page document\u2014jointly released by the foreign affairs, defence, finance and interior ministries, as well as the chancellery\u2014clearly lays out the geopolitical and economic challenges facing the country, the strategy, in its current form, is too vague to be an effective guide.<\/p>\n

Although Germany has so far managed without a national security strategy, Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s decision to invade Ukraine\u2014together with the country\u2019s dangerous dependence on Russian natural gas\u2014drove home the need for comprehensive thinking. For decades, Germany relied on the United States and NATO for protection, a seemingly never-ending peace dividend that enabled the country to champion military restraint while maintaining the illusion that the world was more peaceful and secure than it was.<\/p>\n

That illusion was shattered after Russia attacked Ukraine, and China, eager to exploit any perceived Western vulnerability, adopted a more assertive foreign policy. But although the new strategy acknowledges Russia as Germany\u2019s primary security threat, its description of China\u2014\u2018partner, competitor and systemic rival\u2019\u2014is a contradictory mash-up, and Taiwan is never mentioned. Instead, the document emphasises Germany\u2019s close partnership with the US, unwavering commitment to NATO, and membership in a strengthened European Union as the institutional pillars of the nation\u2019s defence against both actual and potential enemies.<\/p>\n

While a significant portion of the strategy is dedicated to stating the obvious, three of its key features are worth highlighting. On a positive note, it adopts a holistic approach to national security that goes beyond military preparedness and deterrence. Under the slogan \u2018robust, resilient, sustainable\u2019, the document outlines the three guiding principles of Germany\u2019s integrated security strategy. \u2018Robust\u2019 means being prepared to protect against attacks, including cyberattacks and hybrid warfare, and meeting Germany\u2019s commitments to NATO. \u2018Resilient\u2019 signifies the country\u2019s commitment to upholding a liberal, rules-based domestic and international order through a values-based, interest-led foreign policy. And \u2018sustainable\u2019 represents the need to ensure that Germany has the natural, economic and social resources it needs to prosper.<\/p>\n

Given that the current level of Germany\u2019s defence and security spending is insufficient, such an integrated strategy would ultimately require further investments. By enhancing its military capabilities and accelerating the energy transition, Germany could fend off potential attacks, defend the international liberal order, protect human rights and promote a sustainable way of life. It\u2019s difficult to imagine anyone opposing these goals.<\/p>\n

But this vision also raises several questions. Crucially, what institutional mechanisms, rules, regulations and budgetary resources are needed to implement this integrated security strategy? Would embracing such far-reaching changes not require a nationwide mobilisation effort? Would that not significantly increase the role and power of the state?<\/p>\n

The document\u2019s first weakness is its failure to address these questions. When it comes to national security policy, a strategy\u2019s purpose is to establish long-term objectives and provide a roadmap of short- and medium-term tactics to achieve them. But while Germany\u2019s national security strategy is long on vision and outlines some strategic goals, it comes up short on tactics and concrete steps.<\/p>\n

The document doesn\u2019t propose any allocation of funding for its proposals, nor does it explain which agencies or bodies will be responsible for coordinating and overseeing implementation. Moreover, it disregards the potential value of a national security council and assumes that the existing inter-ministerial mechanisms will suffice. But will they?<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the strategy doesn\u2019t reckon with the fact that it was the lack of coordination among key ministries and a weak central command that gave rise to Germany\u2019s deficient foreign and defence policies in the first place.<\/p>\n

The document\u2019s reliance on vague language is another major weakness, because it creates ambiguity where precise statements are necessary. For example, while the strategy reiterates Germany\u2019s commitment to NATO\u2019s 2%-of-GDP minimum<\/a> for military spending, it now qualifies that commitment as \u2018an average over a multi-year period\u2019.<\/p>\n

Behind these equivocal formulations lies the looming threat of the debt brake<\/a>, a constitutional mechanism empowering the finance minister to restrict public spending in order to prevent structural budget deficits. In other words, the effective implementation of Germany\u2019s first national security strategy is contingent on the finance minister\u2019s willingness to provide the funds needed to achieve it.<\/p>\n

In sum, while Germany\u2019s national security strategy advances some thought-provoking ideas, its realisation is jeopardised by a lack of actionable policy proposals and uncertainty surrounding institutional mechanisms and financial resources. Without precisely defined goals and detailed, step-by-step plans to achieve them, the strategy will most likely remain on the shelf\u2014a well-written account of what could have been.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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