{"id":80697,"date":"2023-06-26T11:00:38","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T01:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80697"},"modified":"2023-06-27T10:37:10","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T00:37:10","slug":"the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/","title":{"rendered":"The beginning of the end for Putin?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Danish physicist Nils Bohr once said, \u2018Prediction is very difficult, especially if it\u2019s about the future.\u2019 The insurrection launched by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin on Saturday lasted a little over 24 hours. But the serious implications of these events must now be considered, with Vladimir Putin emerging from this extraordinary event much weakened.<\/p>\n

Wagner forces moved quickly to secure control over the strategically important city of Rostov-on-Don, and advanced on Voronezh along the M4 highway, with the next stop being Moscow itself.<\/p>\n

Prigozhin clearly had the initiative and momentum, with a core of 25,000 troops, and more support flocking to him, as his forces were welcomed into southern Russia.<\/p>\n

Then Prigozhin surprisingly accepted a deal with Belarus\u2019s ageing dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, that saw him end his uprising, reverse his advance\u2014which had come to within 200 kilometres of Moscow\u2014and accept exile in Belarus. The insurrection\u2014and with it the immediate risk of military clashes in the streets of Moscow\u2014appeared to be over as quickly as it had begun.<\/p>\n

So, what are the implications of the apparent failed insurrection by Prigozhin and, more importantly, what are the potential challenges Putin now faces?<\/p>\n

Prigozhin\u2019s fate remains uncertain, but it\u2019s highly unlikely he\u2019ll retire to a villa in Belarus, after challenging Putin\u2019s power by confronting Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. It\u2019s more likely that Putin will seek Prigozhin\u2019s demise at some point, especially to prevent him from returning to direct Wagner.<\/p>\n

The embattled president will be especially focused on reinforcing his strongman image by eliminating any challenger to his power base\u2014and Prigozhin is certainly in that category.<\/p>\n

Wagner looks likely to splinter between those who sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry and those who walk away from the group, perhaps to do other mercenary work. That\u2019s probably good news for Ukraine, because it reduces the threat it faces from what\u2019s left of Wagner.<\/p>\n

But the main loser\u2014apart from Prigozhin\u2014is Putin himself.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s image as a strong Russian leader has been weakened dramatically, even though the worst outcome for him\u2014fighting in the streets of Moscow\u2014has been avoided. Under his presidency, a major armed insurrection occurred on Russian territory that looked to be on the verge of achieving success. Combined with the risk of a looming defeat in Ukraine, this has done much to reinforce growing perceptions that Putin\u2019s rule is ending and that he is a much diminished leader. So Putin will be determined to reverse any perception that he is weak.<\/p>\n

Some possibilities to watch for include a purge of perceived opponents, especially anyone who was seen to show any support for Prigozhin\u2019s insurrection. That could extend through all levels of Putin\u2019s regime, including into the siloviki<\/em> and the oligarchs\u2014the elite of the security and intelligence community, and Russia\u2019s super-wealthy business elite, who keep Putin in power in return for economic gain.<\/p>\n

Putin may also adopt a tougher approach to the war in Ukraine, perhaps by announcing a national mobilisation, though that could generate more opposition in the streets. The last thing would Putin want is a popular uprising or a whiff of a \u2018colour revolution\u2019 immediately after a military insurrection.<\/p>\n

Yet Putin\u2019s goal is to wear down Western resolve in supporting Ukraine in a long war, and national mobilisation would give him a much greater chance to achieve that goal.<\/p>\n

Expect Putin to amplify his fraudulent narrative that Russia is at war with NATO and Western states, even to the extent of trying to claim the West had organised Prigozhin\u2019s \u2018march for justice\u2019, and to ramp up the nationalist diatribe against NATO, which could be accompanied by more provocative behaviour along NATO\u2019s eastern and southern periphery.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also quite likely Putin will rattle nuclear sabres again, having deployed nuclear weapons to Belarus to implicitly threaten use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine or even against NATO. He needs to reinforce his image as the strongman in full control, especially given he knows Beijing is watching closely.<\/p>\n

All this probably won\u2019t save him if Russia is ultimately defeated in Ukraine. The insurrection may be over, but it is perhaps best seen as the beginning of the end of the Putin regime.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Danish physicist Nils Bohr once said, \u2018Prediction is very difficult, especially if it\u2019s about the future.\u2019 The insurrection launched by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin on Saturday lasted a little over 24 hours. But the serious …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":80699,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[163,714,744,3570],"class_list":["post-80697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-yevgeny-prigozhin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe beginning of the end for Putin? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The beginning of the end for Putin? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Danish physicist Nils Bohr once said, \u2018Prediction is very difficult, especially if it\u2019s about the future.\u2019 The insurrection launched by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin on Saturday lasted a little over 24 hours. But the serious ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-26T01:00:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-06-27T00:37:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1258997962.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"714\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Malcolm Davis\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Malcolm Davis\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1258997962.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1258997962.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":714,\"caption\":\"TOPSHOT - Russia's President Vladimir Putin delivers a video address, on June 24, 2023, as Wagner fighters stage rebellion. President Vladimir Putin addresses the nation, the Kremlin said on June 24, 2023, as Russia faced a rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group that has vowed to topple Moscow's military leadership. The Russian President vows to punish 'traitors' from Wagner rebellion. (Photo by Gavriil Grigorov \/ SPUTNIK \/ AFP) (Photo by GAVRIIL GRIGOROV\/SPUTNIK\/AFP via Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/\",\"name\":\"The beginning of the end for Putin? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-26T01:00:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-06-27T00:37:10+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/004d5acd1b50c90b8d3af1ddfe0146e7\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The beginning of the end for Putin?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/004d5acd1b50c90b8d3af1ddfe0146e7\",\"name\":\"Malcolm Davis\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e30138c7970d42c9a573bddc38c3101b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e30138c7970d42c9a573bddc38c3101b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Malcolm Davis\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/malcolm-davis\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The beginning of the end for Putin? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The beginning of the end for Putin? | The Strategist","og_description":"Danish physicist Nils Bohr once said, \u2018Prediction is very difficult, especially if it\u2019s about the future.\u2019 The insurrection launched by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin on Saturday lasted a little over 24 hours. But the serious ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2023-06-26T01:00:38+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-06-27T00:37:10+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":714,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1258997962.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Malcolm Davis","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Malcolm Davis","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1258997962.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1258997962.jpg","width":1024,"height":714,"caption":"TOPSHOT - Russia's President Vladimir Putin delivers a video address, on June 24, 2023, as Wagner fighters stage rebellion. President Vladimir Putin addresses the nation, the Kremlin said on June 24, 2023, as Russia faced a rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group that has vowed to topple Moscow's military leadership. The Russian President vows to punish 'traitors' from Wagner rebellion. (Photo by Gavriil Grigorov \/ SPUTNIK \/ AFP) (Photo by GAVRIIL GRIGOROV\/SPUTNIK\/AFP via Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/","name":"The beginning of the end for Putin? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2023-06-26T01:00:38+00:00","dateModified":"2023-06-27T00:37:10+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/004d5acd1b50c90b8d3af1ddfe0146e7"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-putin\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The beginning of the end for Putin?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/004d5acd1b50c90b8d3af1ddfe0146e7","name":"Malcolm Davis","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e30138c7970d42c9a573bddc38c3101b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e30138c7970d42c9a573bddc38c3101b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Malcolm Davis"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/malcolm-davis\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80697"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/147"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80697"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80697\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80700,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80697\/revisions\/80700"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80699"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}