{"id":80709,"date":"2023-06-27T06:00:38","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T20:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80709"},"modified":"2023-06-27T11:01:11","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T01:01:11","slug":"making-japans-defence-spending-sustainable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/making-japans-defence-spending-sustainable\/","title":{"rendered":"Making Japan\u2019s defence spending sustainable"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

One of the highlights in Japan\u2019s three national security documents released on 16 December 2022\u2014the national security strategy, the national defence strategy and the defence build-up plan\u2014is the commitment to increase defence spending.<\/p>\n

The defence build-up plan revealed that the Japanese government will spend approximately 43 trillion yen (US$310 billion) from 2023 to 2027 on defence capability. Japan\u2019s Ministry of Defence budget will increase annually to reach 8.9 trillion yen (US$64.1 billion) in 2027. The\u00a02023 defence budget<\/a>\u00a0demonstrates Tokyo\u2019s determination to follow through on its five-year spending commitments under the defence build-up plan. The total budget of more than 6.6 trillion yen (US$47.5 billion) is a 27.5% increase from 2022 and the biggest defence budget in Japan\u2019s post-war history.<\/p>\n

But the \u2018roughly 2% of GDP\u2019 goal that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida discussed in\u00a0his press conference<\/a>\u00a0following the release of these three documents is\u00a0slightly misleading<\/a>. The 2% includes not only the defence budget but also other national-security-related spending such as the Japan Coast Guard budget and national infrastructure investments.<\/p>\n

Still, the 2023\u20132027 budget plan is 60% higher than the 2018\u20132022 spending plan. As a country that historically spent roughly 1% of its GDP on defence and resisted calls to spend more, Japan has marked a departure from the past in committing to such a considerable increase.<\/p>\n

Highlights from the three documents\u2014such as Japan\u2019s acquisition of\u00a0counterstrike capabilities<\/a>\u2014have grabbed news headlines. But\u00a0funding remains<\/a> a thorny issue. The Liberal Democratic Party\u2013Komeito ruling coalition has been working on fiscal measures that will enable Tokyo to follow through on its defence spending commitments.<\/p>\n

In December, based on\u00a0the LDP\u2013Komeito approved outline<\/a>, the Ministry of Finance included \u2018tax measures to secure financial resources for strengthening defence capabilities\u2019 in its seven-point 2023\u00a0tax reform proposal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The coalition\u00a0introduced<\/a>\u00a0the Defence Fiscal Resource Bill to the National Diet in February. The bill provides the fiscal framework through which the Japanese government will fund the defence spending increase\u2014which is essentially a mixed package of the establishment of the defence enhancement fund and the incremental phased increase of corporate, personal income and tobacco taxes. The bill\u00a0passed<\/a>\u00a0the House of Representatives on 23 May and, following approval<\/a>\u00a0by the House of Councillors on 16 June, became law.<\/p>\n

The opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party, vowed to block the bill. But the large majority that the LDP\u2013Komeito ruling coalition enjoys in both houses of the Diet, along with support from the conservative Japan Innovation Party, cleared the way for the bill\u2019s passage.<\/p>\n

Even though Kishida won the legislative battle, whether the public will support it remains highly questionable.<\/p>\n

In fairness, the majority of the Japanese public supported a defence spending increase. Polls taken by media outlets across the ideological spectrum throughout 2022 consistently showed that the public mostly supported a defence spending increase. Three separate media polls taken in\u00a0April<\/a>,\u00a0October<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0December 2022<\/a>\u00a0show that over half of the respondents supported a defence spending increase. Even a\u00a0May 2022<\/a>\u00a0poll by the\u00a0Mainichi Shimbun<\/em>, known for its criticism of expansive defence policy, shows 76% public support for such an increase.<\/p>\n

But the public\u00a0resisted<\/a> funding this defence spending increase through higher taxes. Public resistance to tax increases began showing in late 2022. Two polls in November<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0December<\/a> showed that more than 60% of the public disapproved of such a tax hike. This public pushback continues in 2023. Polls in January<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0February<\/a>\u00a0showed that 71% and 64% of respondents were against increasing taxes to fund a defence budget increase.<\/p>\n

A\u00a07 May<\/a>\u00a0public opinion poll revealed that nearly 90% of the respondents are concerned about a military crisis in Taiwan and more than 60% support Japan acquiring counterstrike capabilities. But 80% are opposed to financing defence spending through tax increases.<\/p>\n

Plus, Kishida might have missed the chance to gain public support for the defence tax hike by bringing the case to the public. Two separate polls conducted in January indicated that\u00a078%<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a063%<\/a>\u00a0of respondents thought that Kishida should dissolve the lower house and call an election before implementing the defence tax hike. But with his\u00a0approval rating<\/a>\u00a0just recovering to\u00a045%<\/a>\u00a0following a successful G7 summit in Hiroshima, Kishida decided not to dissolve the lower house at least in the near future.<\/p>\n

The Japanese public seem already to be reacting negatively to Kishida\u2019s choice. The 17\u201318 June poll conducted by Kyodo News<\/a>\u00a0shows that Kishida\u2019s approval rating has dropped by more than 6 points to 40.8%. While the defence-related tax hike wasn\u2019t the only reason for the decline in his approval rating, it indicates that Kishida\u2019s tactics of steamrolling widespread public resistance with the power of majority might work in the short term, but may undermine the sustainability of Japan\u2019s increased defence spending over time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the highlights in Japan\u2019s three national security documents released on 16 December 2022\u2014the national security strategy, the national defence strategy and the defence build-up plan\u2014is the commitment to increase defence spending. 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