{"id":80744,"date":"2023-06-28T12:30:24","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T02:30:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80744"},"modified":"2023-06-28T12:05:57","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T02:05:57","slug":"why-thailands-election-outcome-matters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The progressive, youth-focused Move Forward party won<\/a> the most seats of any party in the recent national elections in Thailand and formed a pro-democratic coalition<\/a> that is seeking to achieve a majority in the parliament and elect Pita Limjaroenrat, its leader, as prime minister.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a fascinating result that signals a dramatic shift in Thai politics that will have local, regional and global implications. Move Forward advocates wholesale changes to the nation\u2019s bureaucracy, economy, military and monarchy. With record turnout to the polls, the result illustrates voters\u2019 fatigue<\/a> with the political system and represents a challenge to the role of powerful conservative forces. It also reflects a broader trend of growing mistrust of elites and dissatisfaction with the political status quo.<\/p>\n

The 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer shows<\/a> that trust in governments and politicians is at a worrying low around the world. Discontent is manifesting in the form of demonstrations, protests<\/a> and riots. Move Forward\u2019s win reflects the anger and mistrust that has been simmering in Thailand for some time. Since the 2014 coup<\/a>, Thai politics has been run by conservative royalist and military-based parties. In massive protests<\/a> in 2020, Thai students demanded reforms to the monarchy and military, calling for the royal family\u2019s power to be curbed and for the lese-majeste<\/a> law\u2014which outlaws criticism of the monarchy\u2014to be removed. The election result demonstrates that those demands have not diminished.<\/p>\n

If Move Forward\u2019s pro-democratic coalition manages to achieve its reformist agenda, the example it sets could change<\/a>, and perhaps destabilise, the whole Southeast Asian region. As Thailand and its political elite adapt to their new environment, the potential<\/a> for a backlash from conservative forces should be closely monitored. If that occurs, instability in Thailand is likely.<\/p>\n

Many analysts argue that Southeast Asian countries have been moving away from democracy<\/a> for many years, but if the coalition can get the support it needs for Pita to be elected prime minister, it would clearly buck the trend of \u2018democratic decline<\/a>\u2019. That could then spur a contagion effect and embolden<\/a> other Southeast Asian citizens to push for democracy.<\/p>\n

The election result will also affect Thailand\u2019s role in international affairs. Pita wants Thailand to play a more assertive<\/a> role in regional issues, and if he becomes prime minister he will likely revise Thailand\u2019s stance on Myanmar, which is currently mainly concerned<\/a> with placating the military regime. That in turn could shake up ASEAN<\/a>\u2019s approach to the situation in Myanmar.<\/p>\n

Some note that the new government, if successful, is likely to review<\/a> Thailand\u2019s foreign policy and relations with Western powers\u2014particularly the United States\u2014and reduce Thailand\u2019s strategic dependence on China<\/a>. According to these analyses, Pita intends to build Thailand\u2019s global profile and shift<\/a> Thailand back to a traditional \u2018bamboo diplomacy<\/a>\u2019 approach that focuses on flexibility and pragmatism. Other<\/a> commentary, however, expects continued close ties with China. Either way, the new government will need to be skilled at navigating the growing competition between great powers in the region.<\/p>\n

At this stage, it\u2019s unclear whether conservative forces will support<\/a> the coalition and allow it to form a new government. Pita is unlikely to gain the number of seats needed in the Senate to form a new government without making compromises<\/a> to his progressive agenda. That could mean forming a government more acceptable<\/a> to the Senate\u2019s conservative old guard or dropping Move Forward\u2019s flagship proposal<\/a> to reform the lese-majeste law\u2014which would be very unpopular among the party\u2019s supporters. That said, if the military-aligned Senate does move to block the coalition, it could reignite<\/a> protests around the country. Thailand\u2019s Election Commission has until 14 July to confirm the results. Whatever happens, reformist ideas seem likely to continue to influence<\/a>,<\/u> and destabilise, Thai policy, politics and society.<\/p>\n

The significance of this election result for Thailand cannot be overstated. Thailand\u2019s parliamentary procedures mean it will take many months for a new government to assume power. At the time of writing, Pita is trying to cling to the prime ministership and his party\u2019s reform agenda, but he is under considerable pressure. This is a pivotal moment for Southeast Asian democracy<\/a>, and whatever happens next will affect domestic and regional stability, Thailand\u2019s foreign policy approach and, ultimately, the future of the region.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The progressive, youth-focused Move Forward party won the most seats of any party in the recent national elections in Thailand and formed a pro-democratic coalition that is seeking to achieve a majority in the parliament …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1758,"featured_media":80746,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[106,753,376,25,157],"class_list":["post-80744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-democracy","tag-election","tag-politics","tag-southeast-asia","tag-thailand"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The progressive, youth-focused Move Forward party won the most seats of any party in the recent national elections in Thailand and formed a pro-democratic coalition that is seeking to achieve a majority in the parliament ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-28T02:30:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-06-28T02:05:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1489950958.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Antonia Robson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Antonia Robson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1489950958.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1489950958.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"BANGKOK, THAILAND - MAY 14: A Thai voter cast vote into a ballot box at a polling station on May 14, 2023 in Bangkok, Thailand. Thailand holds its general elections on May 14, in a contest that could see the return of political forces allied with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. (Photo by Sirachai Arunrugstichai\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/\",\"name\":\"Why Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-28T02:30:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-06-28T02:05:57+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c5f5f1ec92440d35da296442e876e4ef\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Why Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c5f5f1ec92440d35da296442e876e4ef\",\"name\":\"Antonia Robson\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1661bed86a30d3533155626af2ed3693?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1661bed86a30d3533155626af2ed3693?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Antonia Robson\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/antonia-robson\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Why Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Why Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters | The Strategist","og_description":"The progressive, youth-focused Move Forward party won the most seats of any party in the recent national elections in Thailand and formed a pro-democratic coalition that is seeking to achieve a majority in the parliament ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2023-06-28T02:30:24+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-06-28T02:05:57+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1489950958.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Antonia Robson","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Antonia Robson","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1489950958.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/GettyImages-1489950958.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"caption":"BANGKOK, THAILAND - MAY 14: A Thai voter cast vote into a ballot box at a polling station on May 14, 2023 in Bangkok, Thailand. Thailand holds its general elections on May 14, in a contest that could see the return of political forces allied with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. (Photo by Sirachai Arunrugstichai\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/","name":"Why Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2023-06-28T02:30:24+00:00","dateModified":"2023-06-28T02:05:57+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c5f5f1ec92440d35da296442e876e4ef"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-thailands-election-outcome-matters\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Why Thailand\u2019s election outcome matters"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c5f5f1ec92440d35da296442e876e4ef","name":"Antonia Robson","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1661bed86a30d3533155626af2ed3693?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1661bed86a30d3533155626af2ed3693?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Antonia Robson"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/antonia-robson\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80744"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1758"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80744"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80744\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80747,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80744\/revisions\/80747"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}