{"id":80750,"date":"2023-06-28T15:00:29","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T05:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80750"},"modified":"2023-06-28T14:59:58","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T04:59:58","slug":"russias-dangerous-nuclear-consensus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russias-dangerous-nuclear-consensus\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s dangerous nuclear consensus"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin\u2019s weekend rebellion<\/a> has shone a harsh spotlight on the apparently fragile state of Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s regime. While Prigozhin soon agreed to stand down and ordered his mercenary army to halt its advance on Moscow, the warlord-led uprising highlights, yet again, the imminent and existential risks that an aggressive and unstable nuclear power poses to the world.<\/p>\n

Since Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began last year\u2014and especially since it became clear that Putin wouldn\u2019t secure the quick victory he apparently expected\u2014a nightmare scenario has loomed. Putin could be driven from power, leaving behind a fragmented Russia where various warlords<\/a> compete for power\u2014including control of the world\u2019s largest nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n

When Prigozhin accused Russia\u2019s military of attacking<\/a> Wagner Group encampments, seized control<\/a> of Russia\u2019s Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and ordered his mercenaries to march on Moscow, such a scenario appeared likely. But though this particular coup didn\u2019t materialise, there\u2019s no guarantee that another won\u2019t follow, especially in light of the support Prigozhin seems to enjoy<\/a> among some segments of Russia\u2019s population.<\/p>\n

But even if Putin remains in the Kremlin, Russian nuclear weapons pose an imminent risk. After all, it is the threat of nuclear escalation that has prevented the West from intervening militarily to defend Ukraine and has forced NATO to calibrate carefully the timing and nature of military support for Ukrainian fighters.<\/p>\n

In fact, Putin has repeatedly reminded the West to tread lightly. In 2014\u2014the year Russia invaded the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea\u2014Russia altered<\/a> its military doctrine to include first use of nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the Russian state. Four years later, Putin reiterated<\/a> his commitment to that principle. Yes, it would be a \u2018global catastrophe,\u2019 he explained, but a world without Russia need not exist at all.<\/p>\n

Putin has ramped up his nuclear sabre-rattling. Last September, his speech announcing<\/a> the annexation of four more Ukrainian oblasts was peppered with blistering denunciations of America\u2019s military record\u2014including its status as the only country ever to have used nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, Putin again confirmed<\/a> his willingness to use nuclear weapons to protect the \u2018existence of the Russian state\u2019, its \u2018territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty\u2019. He also noted that he considers Russia\u2019s massive arsenal to be a \u2018competitive advantage\u2019 against NATO. In February, Russia withdrew<\/a> from New START, its last remaining nuclear-arms-control treaty with the US.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s provocative nuclear rhetoric has lately been echoed by other high-profile Russians. In a recent commentary<\/a>, the honorary chair of Russia\u2019s Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergei Karaganov, made the case for pre-emptive nuclear strikes. By hitting \u2018a bunch of targets in a number of countries,\u2019 he argued, Russia could \u2018bring those who have lost their mind to reason\u2019 and \u2018break the West\u2019s will\u2019.<\/p>\n

Even coming from a hawk like Karaganov, that is a shocking proposition. But perhaps more worrying are similarly incendiary statements from historically moderate figures. Dmitri Trenin\u2014the former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, who had long been considered a voice of reason in Russia\u2014now advocates<\/a> inserting the \u2018nuclear bullet\u2019 into the \u2018revolver drum\u2019. Trenin suggests that a pre-emptive strike could \u2018dispel the mythology\u2019 about NATO\u2019s collective-defence clause and lead to the alliance\u2019s dissolution.<\/p>\n

To be sure, some dissenting voices have emerged. Figures such as Fyodor Lukyanov, chair of the presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy; Ivan Timofeev, director-general of the Russian International Affairs Council; and Alexei Arbatov of the Russian Academy of Sciences have challenged<\/a> Karaganov\u2019s<\/a> logic<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But such arguments must be couched in patriotic terms, because Russia is now gripped by Soviet-style repression, exemplified by the recent detention<\/a> of Wall Street Journal <\/em>reporter Evan Gershkovich and the outrageous prison sentence<\/a> of opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza. In Russia, internal repression has historically often linked to external aggression.<\/p>\n

For now, Putin says that Russia does not need to use nuclear weapons\u2014at least not to defend the Russian state\u2019s existence. But a warlord like Prigozhin might disagree. In any case, the use of lower-yield \u2018tactical\u2019 nuclear weapons in Ukraine appears increasingly likely. With its conventional arsenal nearing exhaustion, Russia recently delivered a tranche<\/a> of such weapons to the territory of its closest ally, Belarus, and plans to send more.<\/p>\n

In April, a third<\/a> of Russians surveyed by the Levada Center thought that their leaders were prepared to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, though 86% of Russians believe<\/a> that nuclear weapons should not be used under any circumstances. Last week, US President Joe Biden acknowledged the \u2018real\u2019 threat that Russia will deploy<\/a> tactical nukes.<\/p>\n

Such a move would make the world<\/a> a far more dangerous place\u2014especially if Putin is allowed to get away with it. If the West submits to Russian nuclear blackmail, further attacks could be expected, in Moldova and beyond.<\/p>\n

The war in Ukraine has raised the spectre not only of Russia\u2019s disintegration, but also of a nuclear confrontation akin to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis\u2014one that may prove impossible to defuse. In this context, the West must use every tool at its disposal to take the temperature of Russian domestic discourse and gauge the severity of Russia\u2019s \u2018nuclear fever<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

Of course, as Prigozhin\u2019s mutiny showed, anything can happen in Russia. And as Cold War Kremlinologists learned after decades of reading the tea leaves, it\u2019s impossible to determine whether public statements and debates are indicative of a new consensus among the political and military elites. But the stakes are too high not to try.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin\u2019s weekend rebellion has shone a harsh spotlight on the apparently fragile state of Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s regime. While Prigozhin soon agreed to stand down and ordered his mercenary army …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1658,"featured_media":80752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[547,356,163,744,3570],"class_list":["post-80750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-low-yield-nuclear-weapons","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-russia","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-yevgeny-prigozhin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRussia\u2019s dangerous nuclear consensus | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russias-dangerous-nuclear-consensus\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russia\u2019s dangerous nuclear consensus | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin\u2019s weekend rebellion has shone a harsh spotlight on the apparently fragile state of Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s regime. 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