{"id":80974,"date":"2023-07-10T06:00:43","date_gmt":"2023-07-09T20:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=80974"},"modified":"2023-07-07T16:50:34","modified_gmt":"2023-07-07T06:50:34","slug":"us-sanctions-are-driving-myanmar-into-chinas-arms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-sanctions-are-driving-myanmar-into-chinas-arms\/","title":{"rendered":"US sanctions are driving Myanmar into China\u2019s arms"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

A recent joint statement<\/a> by US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi \u2018expressed deep concern about the deteriorating situation in Myanmar\u2019 and called for a constructive dialogue to aid the country\u2019s transition towards an inclusive federal democratic system. Unfortunately, the US-led sanctions policy has undercut that goal and made a bad situation<\/a> worse.<\/p>\n

While inflicting misery on Myanmar\u2019s ordinary citizens, Western sanctions have left the ruling military elites relatively unscathed, giving the junta little incentive to loosen its political grip. The primary beneficiary has been China, which has been allowed to expand its foothold in a country that it values as a strategic gateway to the Indian Ocean and an important source of natural resources.<\/p>\n

This development has amplified regional security challenges. For example, Chinese military personnel are now helping to build a listening post<\/a> on Myanmar\u2019s Great Coco Island, which lies just north of India\u2019s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the home to the Indian military\u2019s only tri-service command. Once operational, the new spy station will likely assist China\u2019s maritime surveillance of India, including by monitoring<\/a> nuclear submarine movements and tracking tests of missiles that often splash down in the Bay of Bengal.<\/p>\n

In a way, history is repeating itself. Starting in the late 1980s, US-led sanctions paved the way for China to become Myanmar\u2019s dominant trading partner and investor. That sanctions regime lasted until 2012, when Barack Obama heralded a new US policy and became the first US president<\/a> to visit Myanmar. In 2015, Myanmar elected its first civilian-led government, ending decades of military dictatorship.<\/p>\n

In February 2021, however, the military staged a coup and detained<\/a> civilian leaders such as Aung San Suu Kyi, prompting the Biden administration to re-impose wide-ranging sanctions. Importantly, this reversal of Myanmar\u2019s democratic project was precipitated by earlier targeted US measures against the military leadership\u2014including the commander-in-chief, Min Aung Hlaing\u2014for rampant human-rights abuses against Rohingya Muslims that forced most to flee to Bangladesh. After President Donald Trump\u2019s administration slapped sanctions<\/a> on Hlaing and other top commanders in July 2019, the generals lost any incentive to sustain Myanmar\u2019s democratisation. A year and a half later, they had toppled the civilian government, after denouncing<\/a> the results of the November 2020 national election as fraudulent.<\/p>\n

The lesson for Western policymakers should be clear. Individually sanctioning foreign officials\u2014which is essentially a symbolic gesture\u2014can seriously hamper US diplomacy and cause unintended consequences. (Indeed, China continues to rebuff the Biden administration\u2019s requests for direct military talks as a means of protesting US sanctions<\/a> on General Li Shangfu, who became China\u2019s defence minister in March.)<\/p>\n

America\u2019s longstanding lack of ties with Myanmar\u2019s nationalist military\u2014the only functioning institution in a culturally and ethnically diverse society\u2014has been an enduring weakness<\/a> of its policy towards the country. Owing to this limitation, Suu Kyi achieved the status of a virtual saint<\/a> in the Western imagination, only for the feted Nobel Peace Prize winner\u2019s reputation to fall precipitously after she defended<\/a> her country\u2019s Rohingya policy against accusations of genocide.<\/p>\n

Now that the junta leaders are sanctioned and the civilian leaders are under detention, the US has little leverage to influence political developments in Myanmar. Instead, America and its allies have ratcheted up<\/a> the sanctions and lent support to the armed resistance to military rule. To that end, a Myanmar-specific provision added to the 2023 US National Defense Authorization Act authorizes<\/a> \u2018non-lethal assistance\u2019 for anti-regime armed groups, including the People\u2019s Defence Force, a notional army established by the shadow National Unity Government. Biden now has considerable latitude to aid Myanmar\u2019s anti-junta insurrection, just as Obama did when he provided \u2018non-lethal assistance\u2019, in the form of battlefield support equipment, to Ukrainian forces<\/a> and Syrian rebels<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But such interventions are likely to plunge Myanmar into greater disorder and poverty without advancing US interests. Even in the unlikely event that the disparate groups behind the armed insurrection manage to overthrow the junta, Myanmar would not re-emerge as a democracy. Rather, it would become a Libya-style failed state and a bane to regional security. It would also remain a proxy battleground between Western powers and China and Russia. A United Nations report<\/a> estimates that, since the coup, Myanmar has imported at least US$1 billion worth of weapons and dual-use goods, principally from China and Russia.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s rapidly growing footprint in Myanmar is America\u2019s strategic loss<\/a>. But it doesn\u2019t have to be this way. Given its strategic location, Myanmar could be co-opted into America\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy through a gradual easing of sanctions in response to positive moves by the junta.<\/p>\n

Given that sanctions naturally close the door to dialogue and influence, they should never be employed as the first tool of foreign policy. After the Thai army chief seized power in a coup in 2014, the US wisely eschewed sanctions and opted for engagement, which helped safeguard Thailand\u2019s thriving civil society. That strategy eventually led to the general\u2019s defeat<\/a> in the recent national election.<\/p>\n

Restoring democracy in Myanmar can be achieved only gradually by engaging with the country\u2019s military rulers and offering them incentives to reverse course. Sanctions without engagement have never worked. If Biden can closely engage with China\u2014the world\u2019s largest, strongest and longest-surviving autocracy\u2014including by sending<\/a> the CIA director, the secretary of state and the secretary of the treasury to Beijing in quick succession, he should at least open lines of communication with Myanmar\u2019s junta.<\/p>\n

Just as the military\u2013monarchy alliance<\/a> has long shaped political developments in Thailand, where the generals have seized power 12 times<\/a> over the last nine decades, Myanmar\u2019s armed forces have traditionally asserted themselves as the country\u2019s most powerful political player. That was evident when they retained their power under the 2008 constitution<\/a> that helped bring Suu Kyi to power. Without a shift in US policy towards gradual engagement with the junta, Myanmar will remain the playground of great powers, with no hope for a new democratic opening.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recent joint statement by US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi \u2018expressed deep concern about the deteriorating situation in Myanmar\u2019 and called for a constructive dialogue to aid the country\u2019s transition …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":81020,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,106,212,2070],"class_list":["post-80974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-democracy","tag-myanmar","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS sanctions are driving Myanmar into China\u2019s arms | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-sanctions-are-driving-myanmar-into-chinas-arms\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US sanctions are driving Myanmar into China\u2019s arms | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A recent joint statement by US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi \u2018expressed deep concern about the deteriorating situation in Myanmar\u2019 and called for a constructive dialogue to aid the country\u2019s transition ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-sanctions-are-driving-myanmar-into-chinas-arms\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-09T20:00:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-07-07T06:50:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/GettyImages-1245976151.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-sanctions-are-driving-myanmar-into-chinas-arms\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/GettyImages-1245976151.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/GettyImages-1245976151.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"Myanmar's military chief Min Aung Hlaing stands in a car as he oversees a military display at a parade ground to mark the country's Independence Day in Naypyidaw on January 4, 2023. - Myanmar's junta announced an amnesty for 7,000 prisoners to mark Independence Day on January 4 following a show of force in the capital, days after increasing democracy figurehead Aung San Suu Kyi's jail term to 33 years. 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