{"id":81347,"date":"2023-07-26T13:00:37","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T03:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=81347"},"modified":"2023-07-26T12:47:51","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T02:47:51","slug":"spain-dodges-a-far-right-bullet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/spain-dodges-a-far-right-bullet\/","title":{"rendered":"Spain dodges a far-right bullet"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

\u2018Spain is different\u2019 is a phrase that has often been used as a substitute for nuanced analysis of developments in the country. But Spain truly was different in its peaceful transition to democracy after the end of Francisco Franco\u2019s dictatorship\u2014which coined the clich\u00e9<\/a>\u2014and the sweeping modernisation that followed. It was also different for not having a far-right party contending for political power\u2014a status it seemed to be losing but has now managed to reclaim.<\/p>\n

While many European countries\u2014including Austria, France, Germany and most of Scandinavia\u2014have long struggled to contain their respective proto-fascist parties, Spain\u2019s centre-right People\u2019s Party (PP) succeeded in integrating remaining Francoist forces, thereby diluting their influence. That changed in 2014, when Santiago Abascal founded the Vox party, whose neo-Francoist agenda quickly drew significant support: five years later, Vox won 52 seats<\/a> in Spain\u2019s parliament.<\/p>\n

A few days ago, Vox appeared to be on the cusp of another milestone: becoming the first far-right party<\/a> in Spain\u2019s government since the end of Franco\u2019s regime. Polls suggested that, in last Sunday\u2019s snap election<\/a>, voters would reject Prime Minister Pedro S\u00e1nchez\u2019s fractious left-wing coalition in favour of the PP\u2014Spain\u2019s main conservative opposition party\u2014which would surely need Vox\u2019s support to take office.<\/p>\n

Instead, the PP gained fewer seats than expected, leaving it with 136 total<\/a>, and Vox lost 19 seats<\/a>. Together, the two parties didn\u2019t secure the 176 seats needed to form a majority, and the PP has no natural allies beyond Vox to augment a potential coalition.<\/p>\n

To be sure, S\u00e1nchez\u2019s Socialist Workers\u2019 Party (PSOE) and its coalition partner Sumar also fell short\u2014the current governing alliance, which also includes Podemos, now holds only 153 seats<\/a>\u2014leaving Spain with a hung parliament<\/a>. But the PSOE may well be able to regain power by securing the support of the regional nationalist parties of the Basque country and Catalonia. In other words, the PP appears to be out of options, and the PSOE does not.<\/p>\n

How did S\u00e1nchez manage to eke out another chance at leading Spain? For starters, he has a relatively strong economic record. Despite its lavish social policies, the outgoing government managed to tame inflation, bring down endemically high unemployment and foster steady growth. GDP expanded<\/a> by 5.5% in both 2021 and 2022, making Spain one of the eurozone\u2019s best-performing economies. While lower growth can be expected this year, due largely to the effects of the Ukraine war, Spain still appears to be on track to outperform most of its European counterparts, with the Bank of Spain predicting<\/a> 2.3% growth.<\/p>\n

Of course, Spain\u2019s economic situation is not all rosy. Unemployment remains at 12.7%<\/a>\u2014one of the highest rates in the European Union\u2014though real unemployment is probably lower, since many workers may be making a living in the undeclared economy. Moreover, like in the rest of Europe, homebuyers and owners with mortgages are under severe pressure, owing to high interest rates.<\/p>\n

The second reason why S\u00e1nchez is in a stronger position than his opponents is more fundamental. The snap election was framed as a kind of Kulturkampf<\/em>, a war of values between Catholic conservatism and progressive laicism.<\/p>\n

The right mobilised support by accusing S\u00e1nchez of attacking the traditions and values they hold dear, such as by expanding<\/a> abortion rights, introducing progressive laws upholding transgender rights and passing the \u2018only yes means yes<\/a>\u2019 law on sexual consent. Vox, by contrast, denies<\/a> the very existence of gender-based violence.<\/p>\n

The right also condemned S\u00e1nchez\u2019s efforts to purge Spain of the remnants of Franco\u2019s legacy. S\u00e1nchez\u2019s government ordered the transfer<\/a> of Franco\u2019s remains from the Valley of the Fallen mausoleum to a humbler location, and enacted a law<\/a> to deliver \u2018justice, reparation and dignity\u2019 to Franco\u2019s victims.<\/p>\n

S\u00e1nchez\u2019s camp, for its part, warned that a PP\u2013Vox coalition would lead Spain into a new era of darkness and division reminiscent of 1936\u20131939, when the country was torn apart by a civil war triggered by Catalan and Basque separatism. It is telling that the party that has built a better relationship with separatist forces now has a better chance of governing.<\/p>\n

In fact, S\u00e1nchez\u2019s government actively sought to restore the central government\u2019s relationship with Catalonia\u2019s separatists, which had been severely damaged<\/a> during the PP-led government in 2011\u20132018. To this end, S\u00e1nchez pardoned<\/a> Catalan independence leaders who had been jailed for conducting an illegal referendum on independence in 2014 and downgraded the crime of secession of which they had been accused.<\/p>\n

S\u00e1nchez also worked with Catalan and Basque separatist parties to pass key reforms. Much to the conservatives\u2019 anger, he even made deals with Bildu<\/a>, whose leader Arnaldo Otegi was jailed in 2010<\/a> for complicity in the crimes of ETA, the now-dissolved Basque terrorist organization.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, these parties won\u2019t back a new S\u00e1nchez government for free. Their demands\u2014for example, a binding referendum on self-determination in Catalonia\u2014might even turn out to be prohibitive. They would certainly infuriate Spain\u2019s right. A new S\u00e1nchez-led government with the support of these parties would thus be highly controversial, and could open a new, volatile and dangerous chapter in Spanish politics.<\/p>\n

Spain\u2019s leaders should consider pursuing a grand coalition and a broad political agreement to update some of the constitutional premises upon which the country\u2019s quasi-federal system was built. Rather than flirting with the division of the civil war period, such a coalition would embody the spirit of conciliation, consensus and statesmanship that characterised the early years of Spain\u2019s transition to democracy.<\/p>\n

Whatever happens next, Spain can be trusted to navigate it. The philosopher Jos\u00e9 Ortega y Gasset once wrote<\/a>, \u2018Spain is the problem; Europe is the solution.\u2019 The Spanish have taken that to heart, acting as some of the most ardent defenders of the European project since joining<\/a> the then European Communities in 1986. A deeply held belief in European values continues to unite Spaniards of most political persuasions. The illiberal model that has taken root in Hungary and Poland has few buyers in Spain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018Spain is different\u2019 is a phrase that has often been used as a substitute for nuanced analysis of developments in the country. But Spain truly was different in its peaceful transition to democracy after the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":484,"featured_media":81348,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[753,325,2314,2036],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSpain dodges a far-right bullet | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/spain-dodges-a-far-right-bullet\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Spain dodges a far-right bullet | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u2018Spain is different\u2019 is a phrase that has often been used as a substitute for nuanced analysis of developments in the country. 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