{"id":81922,"date":"2023-08-25T12:30:21","date_gmt":"2023-08-25T02:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=81922"},"modified":"2023-08-25T12:00:56","modified_gmt":"2023-08-25T02:00:56","slug":"ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Temperatures soared in Kyiv last weekend. Stuffy apartments were swapped for leafy dachas and crowds flocked to the Dnipro River\u2019s sand beaches. Yet despite the heat, Ukrainians are keeping a careful eye on the calendar\u2014as the end of summer approaches so does an important milestone for the \u2018summer counteroffensive\u2019. But while the front lines haven\u2019t moved much in recent months, Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive is gathering pace as it tries to get ahead of pressure to compromise.<\/p>\n

In early August, representatives from 42 countries and the United Nations gathered in Saudi Arabia<\/a> at the urging of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It was the second round of talks meant to rally support for the country\u2019s peace formula<\/a>, before a global summit planned for autumn. Among its 10 points, it calls for the restoration of Ukraine\u2019s borders recognised in 1991.<\/p>\n

To Ukrainians, this is not just a policy. It is a necessity because, they argue, trading victory for peace would be symptomatic of misreading Russia. After enduring centuries of Russian imperialism, Ukrainians have learned that concessions will only be used as staging grounds for future coercion. That\u2019s why \u2018Zelensky\u2019s peace plan\u2019, as it\u2019s often called, is also the people\u2019s peace plan. Even under routine air raids and with the promise of another gruelling winter ahead, Ukrainians overwhelmingly <\/a>oppose giving up territory.<\/p>\n

For their part, Ukraine\u2019s Western partners have pledged their wholesale support. In Saudi Arabia, Germany\u2019s representative reportedly commented <\/a>that Ukraine cannot allow \u2018even the thought of a frozen conflict\u2019 or that Russian troops would not be withdrawn. Heavyweights from the global south were also present. Some participants that have so far been unwilling to condemn Russia\u2019s illegal invasion signalled<\/a> in-principle backing for Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity.<\/p>\n

This is something of a renewed diplomatic offensive. Until recently Ukraine seemed to view peace talks as a distraction from the war effort. As well as Russia\u2019s bad-faith tactics, its monopoly on the peace process was part of the problem. It had convinced the international community that it couldn\u2019t talk about Ukraine\u2019s security without also talking to Russia. Although they were like the earlier discussions in Copenhagen, the Saudi Arabian talks differed because Russia wasn\u2019t invited. This gave Ukraine space to push its own terms for ending the war while increasing Russia\u2019s isolation.<\/p>\n

But despite apparently positive results, Kyiv isn\u2019t expecting consensus on all of its peace formula. Some officials from Ukraine\u2019s military donors are convinced that the war will end with talks, not tanks. For non-believers, Ukraine\u2019s counteroffensive is only to improve its negotiating position. Others, disappointed<\/a> with results from the big push, would prefer Ukraine to open discussions while it still has the initiative. To both parties, the full restoration of Ukraine\u2019s borders will likely be a sticking point.<\/p>\n

However, for Ukrainians, a premature peace will remain an unacceptable peace. Even if Ukraine\u2019s government did eventually go to the negotiating table, it likely couldn\u2019t end the war without popular support. As well as being a democracy, Ukraine is relying on an armed force made up of experienced, well-equipped and highly motivated volunteers, with a de facto veto power over any peace deal.<\/p>\n

More importantly, though, Ukraine doesn\u2019t need to negotiate. With the right tools, it can win. The question is whether its partners are doing enough to help. Since last February, massive military aid has flowed from west to east. Yet denials and delays meant Ukraine launched its counteroffensive without modern air cover and long-range strike capabilities. True, more help is on the way, but Ukrainians see no sense in negotiating in the meantime.<\/p>\n

Another talking point is the promise of NATO membership<\/a> given to Ukraine in Vilnius last month.<\/p>\n

As well as benefiting NATO, this is crucial to Ukraine\u2019s lasting security because of the protection provided by Article 5, which states that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. Yet Ukrainians fear it could be used to question the logic of reunification or to pressure Ukraine into a land-for-membership<\/a> deal.<\/p>\n

But this too is a straw man. First, it\u2019s not clear that Article 5 will be extended to Ukraine automatically. And even if it were, NATO is not a cure for all ills. A premature peace would still mortgage Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and leave millions of its citizens under brutal occupation. It would also reward Russian aggression. Like Russia\u2019s invasion of Georgia 15 years ago and the annexation of Crimea that followed, such ambivalence would surely encourage other land grabs, if not only in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

So where does Ukraine go from here? Until Russia withdraws from its territory, a negotiated peace is rightly not part of the plan. Nor is it inevitable. At a special meeting<\/a> of the heads of Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic missions earlier this month, Zelensky set his ambassadors a task to \u2018ensure that the world always stands with Ukraine\u2019. Their work won\u2019t end with summer, just as the \u2018summer counteroffensive\u2019 will go on after the leaves turn and the harvest begins. Ukrainians will fight on because this war can\u2019t be ended. This war must be won.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Temperatures soared in Kyiv last weekend. Stuffy apartments were swapped for leafy dachas and crowds flocked to the Dnipro River\u2019s sand beaches. Yet despite the heat, Ukrainians are keeping a careful eye on the calendar\u2014as …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1791,"featured_media":81923,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[294,806,163,1932,714],"class_list":["post-81922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-diplomacy","tag-peace","tag-russia","tag-the-west","tag-ukraine","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUkraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Temperatures soared in Kyiv last weekend. Stuffy apartments were swapped for leafy dachas and crowds flocked to the Dnipro River\u2019s sand beaches. Yet despite the heat, Ukrainians are keeping a careful eye on the calendar\u2014as ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-25T02:30:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-08-25T02:00:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/GettyImages-1620879412.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Tennyson Dearing\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Tennyson Dearing\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/GettyImages-1620879412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/GettyImages-1620879412.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"KYIV, UKRAINE - AUGUST 24: Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (not shown) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky give a joint press conference on August 24, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. The visits from European leaders were meant as a show of solidarity with Ukraine 18 months after Russia's large-scale invasion of the country. Ukraine's Independence Day commemorates its break with the Soviet Union in 1991. (Photo by Alexey Furman\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/\",\"name\":\"Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-25T02:30:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-08-25T02:00:56+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8885f911c07412407dba122846f97385\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8885f911c07412407dba122846f97385\",\"name\":\"Tennyson Dearing\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e61653c9f4632ba28495276bcdb8735d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e61653c9f4632ba28495276bcdb8735d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Tennyson Dearing\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/tennyson-dearing\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace | The Strategist","og_description":"Temperatures soared in Kyiv last weekend. Stuffy apartments were swapped for leafy dachas and crowds flocked to the Dnipro River\u2019s sand beaches. Yet despite the heat, Ukrainians are keeping a careful eye on the calendar\u2014as ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2023-08-25T02:30:21+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-08-25T02:00:56+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/GettyImages-1620879412.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Tennyson Dearing","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Tennyson Dearing","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/GettyImages-1620879412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/GettyImages-1620879412.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"caption":"KYIV, UKRAINE - AUGUST 24: Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (not shown) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky give a joint press conference on August 24, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. The visits from European leaders were meant as a show of solidarity with Ukraine 18 months after Russia's large-scale invasion of the country. Ukraine's Independence Day commemorates its break with the Soviet Union in 1991. (Photo by Alexey Furman\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/","name":"Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2023-08-25T02:30:21+00:00","dateModified":"2023-08-25T02:00:56+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8885f911c07412407dba122846f97385"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ukraines-diplomatic-offensive-gathers-pace\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Ukraine\u2019s diplomatic offensive gathers pace"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8885f911c07412407dba122846f97385","name":"Tennyson Dearing","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e61653c9f4632ba28495276bcdb8735d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e61653c9f4632ba28495276bcdb8735d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Tennyson Dearing"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/tennyson-dearing\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81922"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1791"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81922"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":81926,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81922\/revisions\/81926"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81923"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}